By Anton Evstratov
The political life of Azerbaijan at the end of 2019 turned out to be rich in seemingly unexpected events – protest rallies, a shuffle in the highest bureaucracy, and then early elections in the Milli Majlis clearly indicate an attempt by the authorities to be reborn, reduce public dissatisfaction with themselves, possibly cosmetic changes, but – hold on at all costs.
Recall that the parliament, Milli Majlis, of Azerbaijan disbanded after the corresponding initiative of the ruling United Azerbaijan party and the subsequent adoption of the necessary appeal of the entire legislative body by President Ilham Aliyev on December 5. Extraordinary elections, by the way, the first in the history of the country, are scheduled for February 9 next year.
Obviously, the party, which already had 70 seats in the 125-seat parliament, did not have any institutional, purely political reasons – it completely controlled it. Therefore, there is hardly any doubt that the decision was made not at all by ordinary and even ruling party members, but by the head of the party, Ilham Aliyev, who ultimately dissolved the parliament by his decree. I must say that there was no special secret from this situation – the main reason for the dissolution of the Milli Majlis was honestly, albeit streamlined, the need to more actively support the course of the President of Azerbaijan on reforms and personnel changes.
Commenting on this decision, many Azerbaijani pro-government experts explained that the parliament of the republic needs rejuvenation, attracting more qualified and young people’s deputies – especially against the background of an already rejuvenated executive branch. As an example, 43-year-old Mikail Jabbarov, the Minister of Economy of Azerbaijan, who previously held the posts of Minister of Taxes and Minister of Education of the Republic, is mentioned. Positioned by the Azerbaijani leadership as a young and successful leader.
The prospect of the dissolution of the Milli Majlis was also received positively by society, and this fact gives us not only a real understanding of the socio-political processes taking place in modern Azerbaijan, but also the real reasons for the above political changes, the crown of which was the dissolution of parliament.
The fact is that Azerbaijani society is not just extremely apolitical. It a priori does not consider deputies as its chosen ones, real representatives of the people. This is not surprising, because Azerbaijan is an authoritarian state, where any changes that have occurred democratically are impossible. Parliamentary elections were and are there, but people who were objectionable to the leader of the country, the president, never got into the highest legislative body. This regime was fully formed under Heydar Aliyev and his son Ilham, however, the prerequisites for such a situation should be sought deeper in Azerbaijani political culture – the regimes of Presidents Muttalibov and Elchibey cannot be called democratic either.
Accordingly, in any case, society will positively perceive the dissolution of parliament, which it did not de facto choose and which does not represent it de facto. Moreover, against the backdrop of recent protests (only in the fall of 2019, 3 large protests took place in Baku and other cities of Azerbaijan), such an event inspires ordinary Azerbaijanis even more. This is understood by the authorities. And this decision of the authorities is called upon to largely extinguish the gradually flaring up coals of popular discontent.
It should be noted that there are many reasons for dissatisfaction among the average, unrelated to power clans, Azerbaijanis. This is a low standard of living (despite the fact that his country is an exporter of oil and gas), corruption, nepotism, and the actual absence of social elevators without the necessary family ties and financial situation, and even the unresolved Karabakh conflict.
And if the Azerbaijani authorities reacted very harshly directly to the protests – without a twinge of conscience and memories of European values and human rights, dispersing them, then in order to prevent such events and their development, they decided on such a difficult maneuver with the parliament.
Apparently, this goal was partially achieved – the sewerage of popular discontent in the election of the new parliament took place. For example, a number of opposition parties – “Republican Alternative”, “Musavat”, “Law and Justice” have already expressed a desire to participate in the election race. At least for a while, all this will “occupy” a significant part of society and give the authorities a respite. At the same time, given the total control of the Aliyev regime over all spheres of political activity in Azerbaijani society, it is not difficult to assume that he simply will not allow candidates for the Milli Majlis to be really dangerous.
Through the prism of the last thesis, it is worth considering all the “reformist” and “liberal” decisions of Baku, for example, the amnesty of political prisoners in 2016, when dozens of people convicted of politics were released. Among those released – a number of leaders of opposition parties. However, their total electorate is so small that even such a “wide gesture” could afford power.
At the same time, the Mejlis’s renewal will undoubtedly happen, but it will happen according to plan – relatively young people who will not stain themselves with scandals, odious statements and actions and are relatively positively perceived by society will now vote in the legislature. Moreover, the parliament, as before, will be wholly and completely loyal to the president.
In this sense, the old composition of the legislative body will “take away” all the problems that accompany it – lowering the standard of living, devaluation of the manat, corruption scandals (including with the participation of the presidential family), etc., and the new one will have to solve supposedly created by the old deputies of difficulty.
The game of a bad and good cop in politics sometimes works, and the Aliyev regime has no reason to believe that it will not bring success on the Azerbaijani case either. The point is that there will not be a real solution to the problems, and sooner or later the society will feel it. But if the price of the issue for the government is just a respite, then it will undoubtedly receive it.
A number of political forces refused to participate in the elections – for example, the National Council of Democratic Forces of Azerbaijan. According to the statement of this association, the true purpose of the procedure is to distract society from its real problems, to concentrate power in the hands of one family, as well as an attempt to catch voters by surprise by quickly organizing falsifications and fraud.
It is difficult to disagree with these theses, however, not without reservations. If questions should not arise on distraction and concentration of power, the opposition seems to overestimate the importance of fraud. Given the mobilization capabilities of the Azerbaijani government, its complete control over society and its dependence on it, as well as administrative resources, fraud and falsification in Azerbaijani political practice, undoubtedly take place, but their role is by no means the main one. Citizens voted, vote and will vote in February in a way that is beneficial to President Aliyev.
As for the Aliyev family and the circulation of power in it, then this problem is worth dwelling on. The upcoming parliamentary elections must be considered through the prism of transferring a number of powers, in particular, control over financial flows from President Ilham Aliyev to his wife Mehriban. In a broader sense, this is expressed in the weakening of the old guard, which has held leading posts in the state since the time of Heydar Aliyev, to the Pashayev clan, from which the first lady and part-time vice-president of Azerbaijan comes.
Indirectly confirm these assumptions and rumors about a serious illness of Ilham Aliyev, who, perhaps, will not soon be able to fully cope with other people’s duties.
There is an interview with Metropolitan Pavel Vyshgorod and Chernobyl, Viceroy of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra of the UNIAN-Religion news agency, in which a cleric speaks about the visit by the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev of the “miraculous” relics of St. Agapit of Pechersky, which is supposedly done only for healing from serious illnesses. This gave the foundation to some specialists and the public, who were not embarrassed by the Muslim Aliyev visiting the relics of the Christian saint, to also make an assumption about the illness of the Azerbaijani leader.
Another indirect confirmation of the transfer of power is the forced international activity of the First Lady of Azerbaijan. So, in late December, she went to Moscow with a formal reason – the opening of the X Russian-Azerbaijani interregional forum, but the meetings of Mehrib Aliyeva with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev speak of a much broader agenda for her visit. Given the prevailing role of Russia in the South Caucasus, it is not surprising that it was in Moscow that the Aliyev couple tried to consolidate new realities.
At the same time, we cannot agree with a number of experts predicting the imminent complete transit of presidential powers to Mehriban Aliyeva and her husband’s departure from political Olympus. Most likely, as long as he is legally capable (if such a statement of the question is relevant at all), Ilham Aliyev will remain president and all the main power levers will be in his hands. It is only a question of redistributing influence between the Pashayevs clan and his father’s comrades-in-arms. The president will still be above everything. At the same time, in an emergency, Mehriban Aliyeva, no doubt, will be ready to take power into her own hands completely.
Thus, while the dissolution of parliament and early elections in democracies indicate a political crisis, in Azerbaijan this is a thoughtful and surprisingly calm step by the authorities, part of a series of successive cosmetic.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)