World Geostrategic Insights interview with Paul Goncharoff on the significance of BRICS for Russia’s foreign policy and the prospects of BRICS under the Russian presidency in 2024.
Native to Manhattan, Paul Goncharoff has lived and worked in Asia, the MENA region, Europe and, since the late 1990s, based full-time in Russia. With his company Goncharoff LLC, he is dedicated to business management, development, integration, and consulting in relation to Russia/FSU markets, working with Russian and non-Russian companies wishing to operate in the Russian Federation and outside Russia, managing multicultural business, operations, and personnel in urban, regional, and remote areas of Russia/FSU.
Q1 – Russia has assumed the rotating presidency of the BRICS group in 2024 under the motto “Strengthening multilateralism for equitable global development and security”. What are the priorities of Russia’s BRICS presidency? How significant is BRICS for Russia’s foreign policy? What is Russia’s role within the group?
A1 – The answers to your three questions are covered in Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept that was set out in April 2023. I would strongly recommend all those interested or involved in the expansion and development of BRICS to read it, or at least its key summations that have been published and can be found in Russia’s Pivot To Asia 2024 and be downloaded for free.
This should assist in being able to evaluate how the growth of BRICS, regardless of presidency, can affect specific regional interests. But to summarize and to paraphrase the above, the main takeaway to Russia’s BRICS Presidency is that we can expect additional trade relations with the bloc to develop over the coming twelve months. Adding additional countries as members and expanding trade relations with other blocs such as the Gulf Cooperation Council, South Asia’s ASEAN, the Community of East African States, and Latin America’s Mercosur were specifically mentioned. Russia is taking active steps to align itself and BRICS with the Global South.
Q2 – It seems that Moscow has already received written expressions of interest from 34 countries to join the bloc. What are the expectations for BRICS under the Russian presidency in 2024?
A2 – BRICS is the multipolar lodestone for many sovereign countries that will directly benefit from free trade, use of their national currencies, and the freedom to pursue their preferred growth alignments for the future. Benefits include being less restricted by over-regulation imposed upon them from Western-style trade structures which are increasingly being seen as unfair in practice. New members are likely to include Turkiye, and possibly Algeria, Bangladesh, Ecuador, and Uruguay this year. It is of note that this year’s BRICS summit will take place in Kazan, a city with a strong Turkic history and culture. Other countries such as Indonesia, Nigeria and Venezuela will possibly come on board in 2025. Many others are in line.
Q3 – Will BRICS become an alternative to the Group of 20 and a counterweight to the Group of Seven, or are they completely different platforms with different goals? In your opinion, can BRICS be really considered an anti-Western association, or at least a bloc that aims to counter Western dominance, and shape a new world order? On the other hand, in the 2010s the bloc was “mocked”, or at least underestimated, by the Western countries; instead, in your opinion, are there now attempts by the West to oppose the growing authority and influence of BRICS? Can we foresee the emergence of growing tensions between the United States and its allies and the BRICS in the nearest future?
A3 – The BRICS isn’t anti-Western at all, however it is emerging as an alternative to the G7 and to some extent the G20. Some countries are members of the G20 and the BRICS and this trend will continue. The G7 meanwhile has unwisely positioned itself as a quasi ‘global authority’ and this has led to some resentment. It is also unbalanced – it doesn’t include China or India. Criticism of BRICS is largely irrelevant and just makes the G7 look pompous. In fact, the main criticism of the BRICS appears to be that it is made up of poorly aligned nations with no common focus, yet this underscores the ignorance surrounding the BRICS.
At first glance, the grouping can appear to be somewhat exotic, but dig deeper and one finds they are all the lead nations in their own respective regional trade blocs. Other criticism comes in that the BRICS is not a trade alliance with tariffs agreed between members. But then again, neither is the G7 or the G20. The EU and United States historically have treated trade agreements as strictly interpreted, legally binding documents, answerable to the WTO. But those days are over. The trend is towards trade agreements with far more flexibility with the ability to better reflect rapidly changing global dynamics during a period of great uncertainty. The BRICS group and to some extent the EAEU both provide adaptable structures.
The West still largely insists on rigid, longer term trade agreements. As we can see with the problems facing the proposed UK trade agreement with India, there is push-back about longer-term commitments to agreements when circumstances may rapidly change and the threat of sanctions can impose immense damage upon any agreements. The sanctions threats are a G7 construct, not a BRICS initiative. Meanwhile, in terms of size, the BRICS has already overtaken the G7 in terms of global share of GDP as of January 2024.
Q4 – One of the main tasks of the Russian BRICS chairmanship in 2024 should be to improve the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement mechanism and propose practical solutions for settlements in national currencies, including digital currencies of central banks. Does this represent a further step aimed at diminishing the dominance of the dollar in international transactions?
A4 – Most BRICS members and candidates agree that de-dollarization and the trend toward using national currencies to independently settle transactions is a powerful attractor promoting a broader integration of unified payment systems, using national currencies in mutual settlements between countries, promoting the development of innovations, and exchanging best practices in trade regulation, customs administration, as well as in transport, logistics, and energy. The resulting change is the creation of a massive global south trade bloc without the constraints of Western input. This concept will continue to be developed in the coming years.
With Russia assuming the BRICS chairmanship in 2024 there will be little to no partisan politics on the part of Russia within the BRICS format. It is not the purpose of the organization or its reason for being. There are enough common economic themes that bind the BRICS nations together and incentivize growth as a group. One of the key collective frictions has been and continues to be the weaponization of the dollar for the promotion of US foreign policies or to put US economic interests above the rest of the world. These actions have been keenly suffered by other countries, particularly developing countries, as their ability to stand up for their national interests by themselves when pitted against deeply established third-state interests is not very strong.
This gives reason and cause for the growth of groups such as BRICS, SCO, EAEU, and similar, who keenly feel their vulnerable over-dependence on the US Dollar in their national wallet by having to purchase with their currencies USD, make transfers in USD, then exchange back into their respective currencies, while each step along the trade path is scrutinized, checked, charged for, and subject to final approval or disapproval by US financial and governmental interests. If the transaction is seen as not being in the interests of the US, or against positions taken by the US, it can be refused, blocked, frozen, or even seized. In many ways, the United States and the G7 are fertilizing the dynamic growth of BRICS.
Q5 – In general, China is often perceived in the West as the leading BRICS country, is this perception correct?
A5 – China is a founding member of BRICS, and has actively invested and planned, together with Russia, India, and South Africa its roadmap for unfettered free trade in a global format. It is a key driver as the Belt & Road initiative clearly shows.
What must be taken into consideration is the interdependence of the now many countries that compose BRICS, as well as the connected interests to fully develop their mutual infrastructure that allows for growth. In that sense, China plays a visionary role in BRICS, but it cannot succeed alone without Russia to power it, India to empower it, and South Africa to resource it, not to mention the approximately 80 nations in one way or another aligned with the largely apolitical, economic vision and opportunities within BRICS.
China has never stated it wishes to be the sole global superpower and its policies do not suggest anything other than a desire for fair global trade and peace. The Chinese military, unlike that of the United States and NATO, is not active beyond its immediate sphere of influence. That tells its own story concerning the desires of BRICS nations to focus on peaceful trade rather than conflict.
Paul Goncharoff – Principal of Goncharoff LLC, Moscow