By Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan (ex-Diplomat, Editor, Analyst)
The geopolitical situation is changing rapidly, specifically in the surroundings of Pakistan. The US enjoyed a Unipolar world for a couple of decades, seems to reach to an end. The US self-centric, unilateral policies have fueled animosity amongst their allies, who have been trapped in American hegemonic designs since WW2.
Especially under Trump-Administration, the allies feel insecure and coerced on several occasions. Trump has shattered the myth of institutionalized and civilized decision making in developed countries, establishing that personality-oriented syndrome is a universal governance impediment, rather than being limited to developing countries only. He has proven that personality does matter even in the Developed and advanced world.
Although President Trump was elected president but, practically, he behaved like a dictator. US-Administration has been unknowingly tarnishing its global image through systemic decision-making failures and narrow-sighted approach, leaving a vacuum up top. Moreover, the mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, unneeded instigation of racial discord, and leadership failure has denuded US vulnerabilities globally.
China and the US have a very different approach toward their friends and allies; the US has always maintained a hegemonic capitalist system and dealt all partners with Carrot and Stick policy. They use Carrot as financial aid or support when the US needs allies and stick of sanctions when they use its time. The assistance is mostly digested in deep political pockets, promoting an environment of corruption, evil, and deinstitutionalization.
On the contrary, the Chinese approach is based on well thought out concept of investing directly into developing economies, especially in communication infrastructure and energy sectors, to establish their integral economic backbone, while enlarging their trading spectrum through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). They offer investment in infrastructure and other required fields on the joint economic partnership at the regional and global levels to draw mutual economic benefits. This concept presents itself as a win-win strategy for developing economies. The US’s latest rhetoric of Indo-pacific alignment neither has an alternate strategy nor any economic development plan, as it is only to contain China, resist China’s rise, and counter China. Thus, BRI emerges as an attractive development strategy.
In the whole of South Asia, India is the only Country, which has declined to recognize BRI, all of the rest of the countries are in support of BRI, and some of them are already the beneficiary of BRI. Although India was extended the option of joining BRI by the Chinese, but Indian over-ambitions for regional domination have drifted them in the US Camp. Moreover, the Indian design of threatening CPEC routes by enhancing the infrastructure in the Ladakh area, particularly constructing a road to link Dulat Beg Oldi through the land, which is only 9 km from Khunjerab Pass, was timely and proactively recognized by China, neutralizing Indian plans by re-couping its vital strategic ground in Ladakh region.
First-time Indian thinkers are talking about India facing a two-front war for which Indians have neither the capacity nor preparation. Therefore, Indians are in a serious dilemma; if they side with the US camp for establishing Indo–Pacific alliance, then they will be completely isolated in the region. If they launch a two-front war, they will embroil themselves in an arms race, which will be an economic disaster for the ailing economy.
The first signs of isolation in the region are signaled through Iran’s decision to cancel the Indian contract of development Chabaha-port and Chabahar-Zahedan rail link. Moreover, Iran announced joining CPEC, opening a gateway to Europe for South Asia countries through Iran and Turkey. Indians will be economically and strategically isolated, with little chance of sustaining a two-front war threat, while dealing with internal security and ethnic fault lines looming on their heads. Another blow to the US concept of the Indo-Pacific alliance has been given by engagement of key player Japan by China to resolve the longstanding disputes through diplomatic dialogue, clearly indicated in the Japanese Prime Minister’s recent visit to China.
Pakistan situated at a vital geostrategic juncture, witnessing jostling between global powers. Although Pakistan was a close ally with the US during the last Seven-Decades, especially in ithe cold-war era, the Afghan-war, and the war on terror, but the US has always used Pakistan whenever needed, and then imposed various sanction like Pressler Amendments or Kerry Lugar Bill, etc. It is very evident where our strategic interest lies, and which Country has been a reliable friend with a track-record.
Therefore, it is pertinent to analyze what options are available with Pakistan and which course of action is most suited for long term prosperity while maintaining strategic balance. Pakistan has cordial relations with China, who has been a reliable friend in our thick and thins and termed as “All-Weather friend.” ; however, relations with the US were full of many ups and downs. The US used us whenever they needed us but always betrayed when our relevance was reduced. We suffered abuse and use because these were always individual decisions, and National consensus was never developed. However, now the US interest in the region is to contain China through some regional power. They have chosen India for this task, and so far, India is playing on their tune. Therefore, the years-old linkage of maintaining balance in US relations with Pakistan and India has been diminished.
Pakistan was astonished that despite the fact we were partners in the war in Afghanistan, India was given full excess to train TTP in Afghanistan as a proxy against Pakistan. India is our enemy and has never spared a chance to undermine our national interests and will do so whenever granted an opportunity. Presently, the US national interests are coinciding with India, while Pakistan does not figure in any foreseeable future scheme. Therefore, the US will try to stick a lollypop in our mouth through petty aid and political coercion, to stay away from BRI and CPEC through some backdoor decision.
China, on the other hand, hasn’t given us aid in hard cash instead of pledged investment in various developmental projects like infrastructure, energy, industry, etc., to upgrade our economic standing. Moreover, the first time China has identified Indian real faces and felt Indian threats to their sensitive area on the behest of the US. Therefore, China considers India the only hostile Country in the region, which aligns our interests with China. Therefore, Pakistan is strategically in an excellent position;
At the same time, the Kashmir movement is at a very critical stage and must be persistently pursued international level and shape global opinion for plebiscite in Kashmir. Time is ripe for settling the Kashmir issue permanently.
It is a challenging situation for Pakistan and passing through crucial times. Pakistan is under the transformation stage, forced by the rapidly changing geopolitics.
Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).