Part IV of the Special Series for Global Peace and Security: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC
The Chernobyl accident broke out horribly on April 26, 1986, in the late stage of the Cold War. The worst nuclear disaster in the global history began with the abrupt explosion of the No. 4 reactor of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
More than 500,000 personnel were involved in the initial emergency response and conducted subsequent mitigation efforts with 70 billion dollars. It finally induced the collapse of the Soviet Union as well as the end of the Cold War. In addition, an unmeasurable scale of disaster spread around Eastern Europe beyond Ukraine, where countless innocent people struggled with cancer because of radiation exposure.
It was one of two fatal nuclear accidents rated at seven as the maximum severity based on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The other came to Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 which has been damaging the global ecosystem while impacting on general human life. Fearful symptoms of the Fukushima accident would be getting worse along with variable diseases, not only from food but also from the polluted environment as it keeps on releasing nuclear wastewater.
The world has already experienced such scary events in horror and desperation through two nuclear bombings in World War II. On August 6, 1945, the U.S. B-29 dropped the world’s first atomic bomb over Hiroshima. The explosion immediately killed 80,000 people and three days later, it dropped another bomb on Nagasaki, killing 40,000 people right away.
Twenty-five hundred thousand people later died of radiation exposure while struggling with indescribable pain and misery. Japan’s Emperor Hirohito unwillingly announced unconditional surrender on August 15, afraid of the devastating power of the cruelest bomb in human history which seriously dilapidated his country.
However, the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents could be much more dangerous than Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. Even though the United States purposely dropped bombs to defeat Japan in World War II, the Chernobyl and Fukushima’s accident abruptly occurred without any belligerent aim or military provocation. It means that any country with nuclear power plants might encounter such a horrible situation. For example, the Fukushima accident came from the earthquake and subsequent tsunami as a humongous natural disaster which can’t be controlled or managed.
Now, the world is not free or safe from nuclear influence. Even though there is no military attack with nuclear weapons, radiation exposure can penetrate human life and its symptoms might turn into variable sickness and disease. As well, it continuously goes through generations to deform human dignity in biological figures and mental disorders with desperation.
Major Nuclear Countries
Russia is the top first country with the largest number of nuclear weapons. 2023 record showed Russia possessed 5,889 nuclear warheads by surpassing the U.S. and deployed 1,674 among them. Except these two countries which used to be extreme rivals in the Cold War, other nuclear countries hold only less than 5%, compared to them.
In the democratic world, the United States, France, UK, and India wouldn’t explore any intentions to provoke a nuclear war, where the retaliatory potential and destructive force of nuclear weapons prevent countries from launching a nuclear attack. They have concentrated on nuclear deterrence strategy and furthermore, mutually assured destruction has been reinforced by hindering nuclear war.
However, the world was shocked when Israel’s Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu suggested that deploying an atomic bomb on the Gaza Strip could be an option to deal with the Hamas threat. Eliyahu’s remarks triggered widespread condemnation that he has been suspended from his position. Now, the international society is very suspicious of Israel’s national identity whether it might be very unfair to attack Gaza Strip.
Israel maintains around one hundred nuclear warheads and its arsenal stimulates neighboring countries in acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel’s nuclear adventure encourages nuclear proliferation in Middle Asia. Especially, Israel’s nuclear weapons provoke Iran to become a nuclear country, which is supportive to Palestine against Israel.
Nonetheless, the United States has kept on the most powerful nuclear capability, which controls not only major nuclear countries but also potential countries. It leads the NPT and continuously focuses on the nuclear reduction treaty with Russia.
The U.S. arsenal contains about 5,224 nuclear warheads and 1,770 are deployed. Roughly half of the deployed weapons are maintained on hair-trigger alert, including almost all of the 400 silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and a comparable number of warheads on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). ICBMs can be launched within a few minutes and SLBMs within 15 minutes.
The United Kingdom and France developed nuclear weapons after World War II to catch up the U.S. nuclear power and strengthen their military capacity. They maintain a relatively small stockpile with 200-300 nuclear warheads without any military purpose as keeping the status as a nuclear country. France emphasizes that it will only use nuclear weapons in the extreme circumstances of legitimate self-defense.
On the other hand, India faces a special environment with Pakistan and even China. India possesses around 160 nuclear weapons that long-term conflicts with Pakistan initially motivated nuclear program. In addition, India’s nuclear venture is related to hostile relations with China. Such a complicated regional situation stimulates India to modernize its nuclear weapons to cope with China, even though it originally tends to compete against Pakistan as a priority in the arms race.
Dangerous Nuclear Countries
Belarus President Lukashenko announced Russia finally completed the shipments of short-range, tactical nuclear weapons to his country, which tend to prevent aggression by Poland and NATO members. In variable fields of military, humanitarian, and political backing, Poland has supported Ukraine which has been desperate as struggling against Russia’s invasion. Furthermore, Poland willingly participates in international sanctions on Russia and Belarus. Just in case, Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus toward not only Ukraine but also any member of NATO.
Russia, China, North Korea, and Pakistan are all countries that could potentially use nuclear weapons in war. If any of these countries might use nuclear weapons, its fatal outcome will sweep away human history itself.
Russia’s nuclear arsenal combined with the United States covers more than 90 % of the world’s nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, severe antagonism between them has been a critical obstacle to reducing nuclear weapons. Even though they agreed to extend the bilateral arms control treaty by calling it the New START, its implementation has been suspended after Russia attacked Ukraine. In addition, Russia neutralized ratification of the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), insisting on that it will not pursue further nuclear reduction unless the U.S. missile defenses become legally constrained. Currently, Russia’s belligerent strategy, which does not rule out the use of nuclear weapons, could be so dangerous as to trigger a nuclear war in Ukraine.
Compared to Russia’s nuclear weapons, even though its number is not much, China and North Korea’s nuclear weapons can also deteriorate the regional security environment in Northeast Asia.
China has already produced 500 nuclear weapons as it gets more in nonstop speed, which focuses on nuclear strategy to enhance its military capability. China’s nuclear triad, spearheaded by the construction of three Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles silo fields, has been strengthened and expanded. Moreover, hundreds of these warheads are assigned to missiles that could reach the United States, meanwhile China is striving to surpass the U.S. nuclear power through arms race.
North Korea has enough nuclear material to make 45 to 55 nuclear warheads and it has assembled 20 to 30 nuclear weapons. Kim JungUn announced that he will increase to 242 and tens of ICBMs in 2027. If North Korea already developed advanced nuclear techniques to load nuclear warheads on ICBM, its nuclear provocation will go through the U.S. territory.
Pakistan first developed nuclear weapons to compete with India in long-term military conflicts. Pakistan emphasizes that it might use short-range, tactical nuclear weapons toward India whenever military conflicts break out. There is rarely a chance of reconciliation between them because of mainly different backgrounds of religion; Islam and Hinduism. In addition, Pakistan’s overall national competitiveness except military capability is not comparable to India. It stimulates Pakistan to use nuclear weapons by beating up India as a dead-end strategy.
Potential Nuclear Countries
Korea, Japan, and Iran are strong potential nuclear countries with highly advanced nuclear techniques, possible to make nuclear weapons at any time. If they officially announce to become a nuclear country despite international sanctions, it will happen in a minute.
However, as the military allies of the United States, Korea and Japan have been controlled not to develop nuclear weapons by nuclear umbrella strategy. The U.S. has reinforced military alliance with two allies, which deployed a nuclear-armed submarine to South Korea in 2023. The U.S. strongly warned that any use of the North Korea nuclear weapons in combat will result in the regime’s end itself. It controls not only North Korea’s nuclear provocation, but it also prohibits China’s nuclear conspiracy toward Taiwan for regional security.
Notwithstanding such a powerful nuclear deterrence by the United States, if Korea or Japan becomes a nuclear country, it will propel nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. North Korea will hurry itself up to produce more nuclear weapons, afraid of South Korea’s absolute military dominance. As well, China will pump up nuclear production as it exacerbates hostile relations with Japan through territorial conflicts in the South China Sea.
If Korea and Japan in addition to China and North Korea possess nuclear weapons, an escalation of the arms race will explode in Northeast Asia. As the center of the nuclear crisis, regional security will be totally damaged by nuclear race and potential nuclear war.
Iran is ranked at the 17th in PwrIndx, which is known in the process of nuclear development despite continuous sanction and condemnation by the U.S. In Middle Asia, if Iran becomes ratified as a nuclear country, its nuclear arsenal will be expanded in speed. Iran’s nuclear weapons will be a platform to blow out the security environment of Middle Asia and trigger many countries to develop nuclear weapons.
Also Saudi Arabia and UAE are eager to reinforce their military power by developing nuclear weapons with abundant oil money. The Israel-Hamas War stimulates these countries to enhance military capability. As well, major military powers in Middle Asia are very much antagonistic toward Israel. If they have nuclear weapons against Israel, regional security and peace will be seriously endangered. Such hostile paths to proliferation through Iran could be an essential part of arms control by blocking out Iran’s nuclear development.
The Process of Nuclear Elimination
The strongest arm to annihilate human history itself in a minute would surely be nuclear weapons. Right after the nuclear bombing, the globe will no longer exist in the Cosmos, where it might be impossible to trace human life. In addition, such a looming monster will even destroy the system of the Cosmos, subsequently messed up to darkness and death in horror.
The only practical step to terminate the danger of world nuclear destruction is that nuclear countries must fulfill their disarmament commitments to reduce risks and finally abandon nuclear weapons. To end the horrible situation because of nuclear weapons, there are a few resolutions.
First, Russia and the United States should dismantle and eliminate their nuclear arsenal until the final stage of denuclearization, which keep 90% among 13, 000 nuclear warheads worldwide. If they practically take a reduction process through bilateral nuclear treaty, it will be the best example to encourage other nuclear countries to denuclearize.
Second, it’s to establish a special nuclear treaty to prevent Russia, China, and North Korea’s nuclear provocation. International society should take much stronger sanctions related to their nuclear ventures.
Third, potential nuclear countries must be thoroughly controlled before they become nuclear countries. Nuclear development should be precisely investigated and prevented by international nuclear treaties. IAEA, NPT, and the New START Treaty must reinforce their function and role as the cornerstone of the global disarmament and non-proliferation regime.
Fourth, the nuclear power phase-out policy is very important to control the potential of nuclear development. Countries with nuclear power plants containing Uranium and Plutonium might have a chance or ambition to make nuclear weapons. But after the Fukushima accident, many countries reduced nuclear energy and set up a New & Renewable Energy Policy which is very effective to protect the global ecosystem with much lower cost.
It’s a very difficult agenda to process complete denuclearization for Nuclear-Weapon-Free World or Nuclear Zero Zone. Many countries still establish or expand nuclear power plants to produce electric energy because the renewable energy industry needs extra budget. Nonetheless, a 100% Renewable Energy Policy can ultimately intercept Uranium and Plutonium production as an original resource to make nuclear weapons.
If the international society follows up the critical path of nuclear disarmament and discards the arms race among countries with nuclear arsenals, global security will be strengthened. Nuclear countries should speculate their national strategy on what is the best way to survive, otherwise they will be permanently extinguished by committing suicide with nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Weapons and Global Security
The UN General Assembly declared September 26 as the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear Abolition Day) in 2013. The aims of the day focus on enhancing public awareness about the dreadful threat posed to humanity by nuclear weapons and the necessity for their total elimination.
After 250,000 people were killed by the United States atomic bomb attack in Japan, the first resolution of the UN General Assembly passed in 1946, aimed to achieve global nuclear disarmament. Nonetheless, nuclear weapons have continuously aggravated such a devastating threat against international peace and security. The global society finally realized there is no alternative except the total elimination of nuclear weapons themselves.
Nine countries currently possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, France, China, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. In total, the global nuclear stockpile is around 13,000 and approximately 3,750 active nuclear warheads are delivered to deploy. Even though that number is much lower than during the Cold War with roughly 60,000 worldwide, it never alters the fundamental threat to global society.
For example, the warheads loaded on the U.S. nuclear-armed submarine have seven times the destructive power of all the bombs dropped during World War II, including two atomic bombs dropped on Japan. The U.S. keeps ten of those submarines at sea. Moreover, the United States, Russia, and China as the main nuclear powers significantly increase their nuclear arsenals in size and capability as the growing new arms race is raising the risk of nuclear war.
The COVID-19 pandemic has so far killed more than 1 million people and its symptoms will not completely end soon. It shows how a trivial incident in one place can impact the entire planet. On the contrary, even a small nuclear exchange between two countries could trigger a nuclear assassination with the loss of 1 billion lives in a moment. If only a few bombs among 13,000 explode, a total of 8 billion people on the globe will completely disappear, where all kinds of biological atmospheres no longer exist as well.
Therefore, such a horrible challenge by nuclear weapons should be defeated by the successful non-proliferation as well as denuclearization architecture for global security. First of all, the world must share the common goal toward a world free of nuclear weapons through practical steps and commensurate actions. The nuclear zero world is not only a strategic agenda that directly involves human life, but it is also the most fundamental goal that the world should go forward together for global security.
Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
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