For the first eight months of this year, North Korea has been making highlights in world affairs perhaps more than the Middle East and/or terrorism.
One of the most epoch-making incidents in the international system for the past few decades would be the meeting of the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and the South Korean President Moon Jae-in and the Singapore agreement signed between Kim and the American President Donald Trump.
Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK); the official name of North Korea has been one of the most persistent foreign policy challenges to the USA during the post- Cold War period due to its pursuit of proscribed weapons technology and belligerence towards the USA and its allies like Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK)/ South Korea. With the advancement of DPRK missiles with nuclear armed ballistic missile, USA’s homeland itself is threatened; thus, the DPRK becoming a direct threat to the USA homeland and not just a threat to USA’s interests in the East Asia.
Ever since the birth of the DPRK, Pyongyang has been adamant when it comes to nuclear policy. It withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1994. In the face of this withdrawal, the USA signed the Agreed Framework with the DPRK. Under this agreement, Pyongyang committed to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid. Following the collapse of this agreement in 2002, North Korea claimed that it had withdrawn from the NPT in January 2003 and once again began operating its nuclear facilities. The second major diplomatic effort were the Six-Party Talks initiated in August of 2003 which involved China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. In between periods of stalemate and crisis, those talks arrived at critical breakthroughs in 2005, when North Korea pledged to abandon “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” and return to the NPT, and in 2007, when the parties agreed on a series of steps to implement that 2005 agreement. Those talks, however, broke down in 2009 following disagreements over verification and an internationally condemned North Korea rocket launch. Pyongyang has since stated that it would never return to the talks and is no longer bound by their agreements. The other five parties stated that they remain committed to the talks and have called for Pyongyang to recommit to its 2005 denuclearization pledge.
On 6 March 2017, Pyongyang sent four ballistic missiles landing in the Japanese economic exclusion zone; 300km off the coast of Japan. A month later, Trump met the Chinese President Xi Jinping pledging to corporate on achieving denuclearization of North Korea. 2017 ended with North Korea sending an intercontinental ballistic missile on November 29th… On January 1, 2018, Kim Jong Un announces in his annual New Year’s address that North Korea’s nuclear forces are “capable of thwarting and countering any nuclear threats from the United States” and says that North Korea will mass produce nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles for deployment. Kim however offers to send a delegation to South Korea for the upcoming Olympics and calls for talks with Seoul to discuss the prospects of North Korea’s participation.
Observers vary in their opinion as to why Kim would have offered this diplomatic talk with South Korea. However, it is often believed that Kim adjusted his course to launch a “charm offensive” due to several factors. Trump has been rhetoric on North Korea’s behavior with its Nuclear power emphasizing even a military confrontation. Both the USA and the UN Security Council (SC) put sanctions on North Korea which hindered its economy and energy security. On 22 December 2017, the SC unanimously adopted the Resolution 2397imposing additional sanctions on North Korea; cutting refined petroleum imports by 90% and by limiting crude oil exports to 4m barrels.
However, it can always be observed that with the Singapore Agreement which was signed between Trump and Kim Jong Un this typical behavior of Pyongyang would be no more the same. They signed the joint declaration to “establish new US- DPRK relations” building a lasting and stable peace regime in the Korean peninsula. Kim pledged to be committed to ‘work hard toward the complete de- nuclearization on the Korean peninsula’ and Trump to provide security guarantees for Pyongyang. However, by 24th August, their relations were a bit cracked owing to North Korea’s want of commitment, and Trump eventually calls off Secretary of State Pompeo’s scheduled trip to Pyongyang with new Special Representative Biegun.
It is often criticized that in the joint declaration there is no mentioning of resolving significant differences between the countries including North Korea’s ballistic missile program. However, Trump said to suspend the annual US- South Korea military exercises labeling them “provocative” and declared himself to be hoping to withdraw the approximately 30 000 US troops in South Korea. The want of a timeframe for any reference to verification mechanisms for the denuclearization process and the lack of Kim’s commitment to dismantle his ballistic missile program have also been some of the criticisms of the agreement. Nevertheless, it is believed that the suspension of missile and nuclear tests would reduce Pyongyang’s ability to further advance its nuclear ability.
USA’s interests in North Korea have been varied from grave security, to political to human rights concern. Indirectly but most alarmingly are Japan and South Korea, the USA’s allies, whose state security, and economic security constantly being challenged by the nuclear advancement of North Korea. Japan and South Korea both depend on the USA’s military might for their security. The bilateral military alliances that the USA has with them make it obligate to defend them from any attack from Pyongyang. Conflicts in the Korean peninsula also have tremendous effects on the regional and global economy.
Beside all these, is China, the only “okay state” with Kim’s North Korea. The USA, who is day by day challenged with the rise of China needs China to be rather negatively oriented towards North Korea. An economically advanced China and a highly nuclearized North Korea as China’s ally would be most alarming to the USA’s interests not just in the region, but also in maintaining its status quo as the super power.
It is this understanding of the need to be more cautious and diplomatic that made USA to change its policy towards North Korea from “maximum pressure” to more diplomatic means. The focused areas of these talks, specially of the Singapore Agreement can be identified as normalization; the two sides “commit to establish” new bilateral relations, peace; the United States and DPRK agree to work to build “a lasting and stable peace regime,” Denuclearization; North Korea “commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” POW/MIA Remains; the two sides will work to recover the remains of thousands of U.S. troops unaccounted for during the Korean War.
Though it still must be seen whether the parties act as was pledged, it can be observed as a milestone in efforts to minimize the threat of Nuclear power in the Korean peninsula which has the potential to get spilled over onto economic, security and many other sensitive domains of the global peace. If ever North Korea and the USA start military confrontation, it is that could lay foundation to a third world war.
Nevertheless, this nuclear deterrence is the only possible option that caters best to the interests not just of North Korea and the USA, but also to those of Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia.