By Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig
Pakistan’s relationship with China has long been a pivotal aspect of its foreign policy, with the two nations sharing close ties in economic, military, and strategic arenas.
This alliance, fortified by the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and multiple defense agreements, has undeniably provided Pakistan with resources to address domestic challenges and enhance its regional standing. However, Pakistan’s heavy reliance on China also brings complex risks, particularly when it comes to national security and foreign policy autonomy.
China has significantly impacted Pakistan’s infrastructure and economic landscape through CPEC which has spurred development in transportation, energy, and telecommunications sectors. Through loans, investments, and technical expertise, China has helped Pakistan improve its power supply and expand its transportation network, vital for economic growth. Yet this economic boost comes with a cost – substantial debt to China. Pakistan’s debt obligations to China are considerable, and critics argue that this financial dependency compromises Pakistan’s economic sovereignty. The debt burden also limits the country’s ability to diversify its economic partnerships and pursue broader international relations, as Pakistan’s policy makers often feel pressured to align closely with Chinese interests to maintain economic stability.
Strategically, Pakistan benefits significantly from China’s backing, particularly in its longstanding rivalry with India. The close Pakistan-China partnership has served as a counterbalance to India’s growing influence in South Asia, offering Pakistan a powerful ally in international diplomacy and regional security matters. China has also provided Pakistan with essential military equipment and technology, bolstering Pakistan’s defenses in ways it might not have achieved alone. These resources contribute to Pakistan’s nuclear program and military modernization, enhancing its capacity to counter Indian influence. However, the cost of this strategic partnership is a reliance that limits Pakistan’s foreign policy autonomy, especially as the geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly polarized between the United States and China.
China’s role as Pakistan’s primary military supplier brings further security implications. Pakistan’s defense capabilities are closely tied to Chinese technology, which, while beneficial, comes with limitations. Relying predominantly on one country for military technology risks creating a dependency that could become problematic if China’s interests diverge from Pakistan. For instance, in the event of a conflict where China remains neutral or pursues its own strategic interests, Pakistan could find itself lacking the diversified defense support it might need.
Beyond equipment, China has also invested in Pakistan’s cyber and surveillance infrastructure, a move that has raised concerns about data sovereignty and internal security. While enhanced surveillance and cybersecurity measures are critical to national security, the close Chinese involvement introduces risks related to data sharing and transparency. Critics worry that the integration of Chinese technology could enable China to access sensitive data or exert influence over Pakistani institutions. Such concerns are particularly relevant given the rising international scrutiny over China’s data practices and its approach to information security.
Another key issue is the social and internal security dimension of Pakistan’s reliance on China. As Chinese workers, firms, and projects expand across Pakistan, especially in provinces like Balochistan, where anti-government insurgency and local grievances run high, attacks on Chinese nationals have increased. Insurgent groups, most notably the Baloch Liberation Army, have targeted Chinese workers to protest against what they view as exploitation of local resources. These incidents not only threaten the lives of Chinese nationals but also strain Pakistan-China relations, as China expects Pakistan to ensure the safety of its citizens and assets. Consequently, Pakistan’s security forces face increased pressure to secure Chinese interests, which can fuel further resentment among local populations who feel neglected or marginalized by the government.
The heavy presence of Chinese companies in Pakistan’s economy also poses challenges to social stability. In certain areas, the dominance of Chinese firms and workers has sparked resentment, as locals see their job opportunities and resources being claimed by foreign entities. This economic dominance may foster anti-China sentiments, creating a societal rift that Pakistan’s leaders must address carefully to prevent long-term instability. If public dissatisfaction with Chinese influence escalates, Pakistan could face protests or other forms of unrest that threaten its internal security and social cohesion.
As China’s economic influence in Pakistan grows, so does its potential political leverage. The Chinese government and state-owned companies are increasingly involved in Pakistan’s critical sectors, such as energy and telecommunications. This influence gives China considerable sway over Pakistan’s economy, potentially allowing it to exert pressure on Pakistan to align with Chinese policies or interests. Such a scenario could see Pakistan compelled to support Chinese initiatives even when they clash with its own priorities. This economic leverage can compromise Pakistan’s sovereignty and limit its freedom to make independent decisions in areas ranging from trade to foreign policy.
As Pakistan looks to the future, balancing its reliance on China with the need for diversified alliances and economic independence is essential. The benefits of the China-Pakistan partnership are undeniable, yet the risks to national security, economic sovereignty, and foreign policy autonomy are substantial. For Pakistan, the challenge lies in navigating these complexities to ensure its long-term security, stability, and prosperity in an era of shifting global power dynamics.
Author: Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig – An independent observer of global dynamics, the intricacies of geopolitics and the interplay between international relations, foreign policy and strategic alliances that are shaping the new world order.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).