After the fall of the Soviet Union, many independent states emerged. With each one having their own national agenda, the prospect of having new borders has raised significant tensions between these new countries. And while in some regions, these border disputes stayed on the political table, in other these disagreements lead to various armed conflicts and in some cases to a full-scale war.
The absence of Soviet supervision initiated the revitalization of old disagreements between nations that had centuries-long territorial, religious, and cultural conflicts. One notable conflict that has occurred on the territory of the former Soviet Union was the war over the Nagorno – Karabakh region in Azerbaijan.
Origin of the Conflict
Nagorno-Karabakh has been in dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 1991 Soviet Union collapse with tens of thousands killed in the fighting. This conflicting resulted with inter-ethnic clashes between the two sides after the parliament of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in Azerbaijan voted to unify the region with Armenia on 20 February 1988. As a result of this conflict, now the Armenian Army is de facto controlling the disputed region. Moreover, the Armenian state has occupied other regions in Azerbaijan in order to connect the Nagorno-Karabakh region with the mainland Armenia. These events did not appear just in the last decade. On the contrary, these territories have been the subject of constant conflict between the Armenian people and the Turkic nations in the regions. The Soviet Union was able to put these sides together which froze this historical conflict.
The Russian Involvement in the Azeri-Armenian Conflict
Throughout the years, the Russian Federation took the role of the main mediator between the two sides in their territorial disputes. This is based on the historical ties between Russia and the two nations combined with Rusia’s regional influence. During the clashes in 1994, the Kremlin was the mediator and negotiated a ceasefire between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces. However, the Russian role in this conflict seemed to be like a big brother that I trying to prevent conflict between both sides. However, the Russian arbitration only resulted in keeping a status of frozen conflict.
The Nagorno-Karabakh and nine other regions are not in control of the Armenian armed forces while internationally the area is still recognized as part of Azerbaijan. The status quo seems to go along with the Armenian plans for dominance of this region and many in Azerbaijan see the ceasefire going in favour of Armenia. Combined with the Armenian military power prompt the Azeri government to initiate the re-arming process and preparing for a future conflict.
The US and Israeli Role
As we have stated that the status quo goes in favour of Armenia as they still control the Nagorno-Karabakh region, it resulted in a response from the Azerbaijani side. The so-called April War in 2016 once again clearly proved that Azerbaijan will never reconcile itself to the loss of its occupied regions and that Baku does not accept the official status quo regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh. The government of Ilham Aliyev engaged in a deeper military cooperation with the United States and Israel. For example, the Azeri and the Israeli governments have concluded massive arms and technology deals worth close to $5 billion. Based on the information from the Jerusalem Post, Azerbaijan is one of the top three buyers of Israeli weapons.
Combined with the increased number of military drills with the US army, the Azeri Armed Forces were able to prepare well for the so-called April War from 2016. For the first time, the Azeri Army was able to make a stand to the Armenian army as it was able to utilize the modern Israeli military hardware against the old Soviet equipment of the Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces. A notable piece of equipment that had a significant effect on the conflict were the so-called kamikaze drones. This modern drone was able to implicate significant damage on the rear units of the Armenian Army. Also, the Azeri forces used Israeli Spike LR anti-tank missile which had a devastating effect on the Armenian T-72 battle tanks. According to the reports from the Armenian Defence Ministry, their losses were 14 tanks during the 6 days April War.
The Potential for Ever Bloodier Conflict
Although many criticized the Russian role in this conflict, it is a fact that their policy of frozen conflict prevented violence and saved many lives on both sides. However, the Kremlin inability to find a compromise between the two sides resulted with a potential for escalation in any given moment. Combined with the Azeri frustration about the loss of its internationally recognized sovereignty of the Nagorno-Karabakh, enabled a perfect ground for other foreign powers to get involved in this conflict. Erdogan’s Turkey has been active in the process of providing military aid to the Azerbaijani government. In the same time, the arms deal with Israel enabled the Azerbaijani Armed Forces to rebuild with capabilities with modern military hardware. Furthermore, the increased US involvement in the region and the joint military drills gave the Azerbaijani side the confidence that can get back the occupied regions.
All these events are just a sign about the various geopolitical interest in the regions. If we look at the bigger picture, the potential for conflict is higher than ever. With an increased political turmoil in Armenia and the Israeli and American influence in Baku, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute can initiate a full-scale war.
We can conclude that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has the potential to involve many regional and global players in some form of a proxy war. And while, the new Armenian prime minister has called Azerbaijan to come to the negotiation table, the reality is that a centuries old dispute cannot be resolved in just a few months.
Image: Credit Flickr/ClayGilliland