By Urvashi Seth
The largest democracy in the world has finally announced its election result by re-electing the BJP government, after the Modi led party won 303 Lok Sabha seats out of total 545 Lok Sabha seats. Shocking almost every political analyst, the Modi led BJP party gave one of the best performances in its political history.
Most of the analysts had predicted a drop in the number of Lok Sabha seats the BJP would win this election. This is mainly because of its many economic failures; increase in the number of crimes against minorities and women; rise in the rates of unemployment; etc. Unfortunately, the 2019 General election was not fought on any of these issues.
After the result announcement on 23rd May, many analysts analysed the election campaigns of all the parties, studied their patterns and gave their opinions as to how BJP won with full majority in its second term. One of the most important reasons was the absence of a strong opposition. The BJP government used this to its complete advantage and made the nation believe that with the absence of a strong opposition, it is only advisable to vote for the Modi government.
Another important factor was Narendra Modi becoming the face of BJP. This factor became very important in the constituencies where BJP did not have a very strong person contesting the election. In their campaigns, all the candidates campaigned in the name of Modi and influenced people that every vote is for Modi. Thus, while voting in their constituencies, people did not vote for the particular contestant of their constituency but solely for Modi. In some places, Modi was seen as a mythological figure, who has descended from heaven to serve the people of India – a monk like figure (after he stayed a night in a spiritual cave).
After the Balakot airstrikes by the Indian Air Force, the Indian started portraying him as the only saviour who can save the country from terrorism. This had a major impact in the minds of the citizens. The feeling of nationalism was on its peak and the BJP government, with the help of social media, only added fuel to the rage of Indian people against Pakistan. This in turn, worked in the favour of the BJP government.
What can be expected from Modi’s foreign policies 2.0
Modi, in his previous tenure as the Prime Minister had visited almost all the strategically important countries, signing quite important deals for the country. This also helped India gain importance globally. This was seen during the Pulwama attack when almost all countries came in support of India and called out Pakistan to stop sponsoring terrorist organizations.
On 23rd May, after the announcement of the election result, almost all the countries congratulated Narendra Modi and BJP for wining its biggest ever victory in the general election. From President Donald Trump to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, everyone wished Modi on twitter and hoped for a better partnership between the countries in his tenure.
Now, one of the biggest questions is whether the Prime Minister will attend the SAARC summit, which he opted out of in 2016 after the Uri attack. This will be of major importance because this, in a way, will decide the future course of India-Pakistan relations at least for the next five years. This will depend on the meeting of Modi with the Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan next month on the side-lines of the SCO summit in Bishkek next month.
“On June 13-14, the Prime Minister is due to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, along with leaders of Russia, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries,” said one of the officials from the ministry. “Later on, June 28-29, Mr. Modi will travel to Osaka, Japan, to attend the G-20 summit, a forum for the world’s top economies,” he continued.
With China, India needs to restructure its strategy for a healthy relationship. “If the Wuhan spirit and the Masood Azhar designation mean anything, we may see some more thaw in the Sino-Indian relations, including an Indian participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, maybe though, not in name,” says one of the analysts.
As for Trump, analysts are hoping a better relationship in the future as Indian companies have already stopped importing oil from Iran. Earlier, Indian government was firm to ignore the sanctions imposed by United States and continued importing oil from Iran despite repetitive warnings. Now that India has finally stopped importing oil, the price of oil has increased. This will be a very important challenge for the government to tackle for the Indian masses. But this will be beneficial for the Indian-US relations.
Conclusion
With the swearing-in ceremony of Mr. Modi expected to be held between 26-30 May, it will be interesting to see which international leaders are invited and which leaders attend the ceremony. Earlier this month, it was rumoured that the Prime Minister has called a meeting and is asking for ‘creative suggestions’ to be invited for the ceremony.
Many analysts believe that Modi might invite the leaders of the Permanent-5 countries and the middle powers such as France and Germany. They also believe that inviting Donald Trump would not be a good decision as he might not turn up ending up embarrassing Modi. Russian President Vladimir Putin would turn up for the ceremony only for the old times sake and also campaigning for the arms deal.
With a lot at stake this tenure for the Modi government, it will be interesting to see how Modi deals with his allies and also with countries like China and Pakistan. Another important thing the Modi government would want to deal with would be the rising militancy in the country with the sponsorship from Pakistani agencies; meanwhile trying to maintain a peaceful relation with the country.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: Prime Minister of India Twitter Account