By Denis Korkodinov
As a result of the attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the position of the Crown Prince of the Kingdom, Moḥammad bin Salmān Āl Saʿūd, may become vulnerable.
After a series of promising internal reforms that allowed the heir to the throne to gain the confidence of the Saudis, he was forced to make excuses not only for the death of Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi, but now also for the failing to repel the attack on the Saudi Aramco factories. All this influenced the decline in his political rating, both within Saudi Arabia and beyond.
The first sprouts of the opposition against Mohammed bin Salman appeared in the Saudi royal family. This process began almost immediately after the murder, at Istanbul’s Saudi consulate, of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi – a critic of Saudi leaders – whose death impressed the entire world community and forced Riyadh to spoil relations with many leading influence groups. Apparently, under the pressure of these groups, Mohammed bin Salman, in a recent interview, was forced to admit his responsibility for the murder of the journalist.
This recognition of the Crown Prince was extremely negatively received in the royal palace, and, above all, by King Salman, since the shadow of the murdered Jamal Khashoggi fell on him. Now, regardless of whether Muhammad bin Salman was involved in the death of the opposition correspondent or not, at the international level, due to this fact, it has grown the opinion that Saudi Arabia solves the problems by killing its critics.
Undoubtedly, this thesis is erroneous, but among the international community there are those who are ready to believe even the most ridiculous conjectures about Riyadh, and use these conjectures to put pressure on the Saudis. In turn, the internal opponents of Muhammad bin Salman have charged him of contributing to create a negative image of the kingdom.
In addition, the Crown Prince is accused of the fact that, despite the huge amount of money spent on defense, the Saudis have not been able to skip the attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, thereby creating obvious “inconveniences” for the entire world economy.
Apparently, Muhammad bin Salman overestimated his cooperation with the United States. He apparently thought that Washington would have never allowed attacks to strategic objects of the Saudis. On the contrary, after the attack on the refineries, Donald Trump publicly stated that he was “too busy” and would not interfere in solving Saudi problems. Apparently, for Mumammad bin Salman, such a statement made by the American partner was a shock, because he was sure that Washington never have left him in trouble.
As a result, the Crown Prince was forced to compensate with a public diplomacy. He began to seek the opportunity, through the mediation of the Prime Minister of Iraq, Adel Abdul Mahdi, to establish a dialogue with Tehran. For the same reason, thanks to his recognition of responsibility for the death of Khashoggi, he forever closed, at least inside the internal audience, the theme of the royal family’s involvement in the murder of the journalist. And finally, Mohammed bin Salman began to attempt to establish a ceasefire in Northern Yemen.
The steps taken on the field of public diplomacy may allow the Crown Prince to rehabilitate the kingdom’s reputation in the international arena, and ease regional tensions, also in order to avoid the attacks by aggressive neighbors.
In general, Mohammed bin Salman is trying to restore his position in the royal family, henceforth relying only his diplomat talent. At the same time, he is no longer trying to strictly adhere to American interests, giving preference exclusively to the interests of the kingdom. However, experts predict that such independence of the Saudi Crown Prince could irritate Washington, and then, for refusing to be in the wake of American politics, Riyadh risks to incur in big problems.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)