Part I of the Special Series for Global Peace and Security: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC
There is an ironic record in global society. Bhutan in Asia is ranked as the top first in Happy Planet Index (HPI) among 145 countries in the world, but its Military Strength Ranking (PwrIndx) is recorded as the lowest 145th in 2023. Perhaps, Bhutan’s people happily live in the spiritual world without war and arms. It shows that human happiness and military competitiveness go through extremely opposite ways.
However, is it possible to reach real peace and happiness without military power to defend the country? History has proved the fact that a country without military capability to defend itself would perish or become annexed to neighboring countries which attacked and demolished. For instance, top three military powers except the U.S. are all located in Asia: Russia (2nd), China (3rd), India (4th). Moreover, Korea as a military dark horse is in the 6th level in the world but the 4th right after India in Asia. Ironically, these major powers have been exposed to military conflicts and potential wars: India against Pakistan, China against Taiwan, Russia against Ukraine, and Korea against North Korea.
Even though their military capability absolutely dominates the counterpart country, military provocation will not be hindered by deterrence power. India, China, and Russia possess nuclear weapons and Korea is very potential to become a nuclear country with advanced nuclear techniques at any time. Especially, Russia and China have often overwhelmingly conducted nuclear threats to exaggerate their military dominance. In addition, Pakistan and North Korea have been not only belligerent but also aggressive by holding nuclear weapons.
Therefore, new military architecture in Asia should be established for peaceful settlement of power structure, where used to be the most dangerous as well as competent area in the international society. Abrupt military conflicts would be stimulated by major powers’ military expansion to initiate potential wars that the world might go through such a horrible experience again. Nonetheless, there is also the possibility to lead global peace and security by counting on how to reorganize military architecture in Asia.
Russia: Shooting Itself
Since Russia has been terribly struggled in the Ukraine War, most people would be so suspicious of its military power whether it might be exaggerated or cheated by manipulating official information and record. Russia’s military capability as the 2nd in the world has been severely damaged and its future is negative as economic recession strikes national crisis.
There remains one thing as the truth that Russia keeps on stabbing its own feet to commit suicide through the Ukraine War. Initially, it simply started to dispatch troops to dominate Ukraine, but Russia seriously exhausted as time went by.
Ukraine’s military power is ranked as the 15th in PwrIndx, but it propels to reinforce by taking military support from neighboring countries based on advanced military techniques. As the result, the war has been stuck while Russia reveals its weak military capability. Now, Russia’s 2nd position is obviously dismissed that China might take over the seat.
The Ukrainian War identifies Russia’s current presence in the world as losing more than attaining from the original plan. Putin attacked Ukraine because it tried to become totally independent from Russia’s influence and furthermore, join the NATO in the line of democratic alliance. If Russia loses Ukraine as a barricade confronting European countries, its national security and power would be damaged or shrunk. NATO finally promised to accept Ukraine’s membership, where most countries condemn Russia and support Ukraine.
The Ukrainian War results in a few failures to Russia: first-unveiling its real military capacity, second-causing economic crisis by sanctions and controls of the international society, and third-losing its influence on Eastern Europe. On the reverse, Ukraine has proved its strong defense capability with unconquerable morale to defeat Russia’s attacks so that it turns into the counterpart country.
The Ukraine War initiates European countries’ rearmament for their national security against Russia and Russia’s national power is decaying by revealing impotent military capability. In addition, Russia has poured annual military expenditure daily by daily that it brings out serious deficit of national budget as longer as the daredevil war continues. Putin’s reckless illusion pushes not only his country but also countless innocent people into deadlock. Through such a shameful war, Putin will lose power and Russia will be withered in the international society.
China: Belligerent Future
After the Ukraine War revealed Russia’s overestimation in the world rank, China willingly takes advantage of such an enthralling opportunity. 2023 China’s military budget is 298.8 billion dollars in GDP 1.9% by following up the U.S. 843. 8 billion dollars in GDP 3.6%. Comparing to China’s rapid military rise, Russia’s military budget is just 82.1 billion dollars less than India and furthermore, it spends most of them in the Ukraine War.
China holding 351 principal combat ships with the largest navy in the world has overtaken the U.S. with 294 in 2022. It is also building up armed forces at a fast pace with the launch of a new aircraft carrier. The U.S. was paralyzed in such an unbelievable shock when China succeeded in firing hyper-sonic glide missile went around the world in 2021, harder to detect on radar than ballistic missile. China’s successful launch of a nuclear-capable missile carrying a hyper-sonic glide vehicle included the unprecedented launch of a separate missile from that vehicle. According to 2023 Pentagon’s assessment, China’s newest hyper-sonic missile, the DF-27, can reach as far as Hawaii. As well, it can penetrate and neutralize missile defense systems while conducting a high-stressed threat to the U.S. aircraft carriers.
Xi Jinping announced his military reform policy to modernize armed forces toward ‘world-class military power’ up to 2035. He plans ’a top China’ by competing or surpassing the U.S., capable of fighting and inevitably winning any kinds of wars. The ambitious strategy to smash out the U.S. omnipotent military power includes conventional war, nuclear war, cyber war, and even the cosmos war by 2049. In middle of the procedure, China intends to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Despite incomparable number with 3,708 stockpile of the U.S., belligerent China’s nuclear threats would be more dangerous to extinguish the human history itself.
Nonetheless, if China attacks Taiwan, such a prospective future to obtain prominent military power will be no longer guaranteed by following up the failure steps of Russia. Taking over Taiwan will not come true in a moment as Xi Jinping dreams, which obviously supposes to exhaust national competitiveness.
China has also struggled with India as a military rival through continual conflicts around border line. If India supports Taiwan when China attacks Taiwan, the war will be staged by turning into a long-term fatigue war. In the meanwhile, India will take over China’s position in the world military power.
India: Ambitious Adventure
India has been ranked as the 4th in PwrIndx, the 2nd largest country with 1.45 million troops in the world, and the 3rd largest country in military expenditures by following up China. It possesses not only nuclear weapons but also ICBM, SLBM, and Aircraft Carriers as verified as high quality of military techniques.
India is the top first arms buyer with 11% beyond Saudi Arabia 9.8% in the world military market as it increases in speed by focusing on the top military level in Asia. It has reinforced military capability through abundant practical experience with neighboring countries: especially, Pakistan in three fatal wars and China in incessant military conflicts.
Now, India’s military potential is very prospective, basically coming from its advanced industrial power. India takes over 30% of IT business in Silicon Valley and 70% software technicians in Micro Soft and worldwide IT companies originate from India. Such an intellectual background has strengthened the top priority of military techniques.
India continually develops to validate new technologies and equipment on superior quality of nuclear weapon system. It’s not just to defend Pakistan with nuclear capability as highly ranked as the 7th in PwrIndx. India might fire nuclear missiles with dreadful intimidation toward China by mutual assured destruction, if China breaks war in any place of Asia.
ICBM Agni-V carrying nuclear bombs with 5,000kms range has been deployed after successful test in 2018. Agni-VI is also expected to upgrade range between 9,000kms and 12,000kms with a 3,000kg nuclear payload. Moreover, it can launch from both submarines and land with MIRVed warheads which simultaneously reach multiple targets in China’s territory.
There is an interesting issue beside military conflicts around border line with China. India eagers to take over Tibet with huge scale of territory, where political, spiritual leader Dali Lama escaped and established the Tibetan government-in-exile in India, which is very supportive of Tibet. So India can ally or consolidate an independent Tibet.
Another scenario to reinforce its national competitiveness is enervating China’s national power. India and the U.S. in the Win-Win Policy can be closely tied up in variable fields to constrain China through Quad. India is the only military power to confront with China in Asia. By such a strategic alliance, the U.S. can effectively control China and India might increase the chance to take over Tibet so that it finally leads China’s collapse in pieces.
Korea: Prospective Challenge
In 2023, Global Firepower (GFP) concerning 145 modern military powers based on war-making capability across land, sea, and air evaluates Korea as the top 6th among 10 most powerful military countries. Military Strength Ranking (PwrIndx) also shows that Korea’s army capability and competitiveness have been proved as the top quality in the world.
Furthermore, some military researchers diagnose the Unified Korea will be ranked in the top second right after the U.S. It means the Unified Korea will take the unchallengeable military position in Asia by surpassing Russia, China, and India. It might come true in the view of miraculous exploration related to advanced military techniques.
Korea’s military export 2.8% in 2022 proves the 8th in the worldwide ranking but increasing rate amazingly reports the top first. In this nonstop speed, Korea will become the 3rd by following up the U.S. 39% and Russia 19% as soon as possible while surpassing China 5%.
The core military techniques from industrial background would propel Korea to the sharpest notch by itself. As one of the fruitful outcomes, military shipbuilding industries have been ranked as the unbeatable stage as the top in the world. It will speed up military export rates with incredible numbers of buyers.
Korea has established fulfilling nuclear facilities to make nuclear warheads uploaded to ballistic missiles. Especially, MRBM Hyunmoo-IV with M10 is considered as a tactical nuclear weapon in TNT 1kt. In addition, SLBM Hyunmoo-III with over 1,500kms range can be fired not only from land but also loaded to nuclear submarines that only Korea, the U.S., Russia, and Israel succeeded in firing. Korea’s hypersonic ASM (Air-to-Surface Missile) absolutely surpasses North Korea’s hypersonic SSM (Surface-to-Surface Missile) in techniques and capacity.
Korea is the first country in the world which develops military defense systems to target hyper-sonic missiles with 2.5 billion dollars up to 2035. As well, L-SAM 2 and M-SAM Block 3 projects surpassing the THAAD of the U.S. have been successfully processed with additional 2.5 billion budget. The UAE already imported Cheongung II, M-SAM Block 2 defense system with 3.5 billion dollars and contracts are on the way with many other countries as getting a popular syndrome. It is equipped with multifunctional radar to simultaneously strike aircraft as well as missile by hit-to-kill system with 100% accuracy proved by multiple launching tests.
Final Winner of Military Competition in Asia
The Ukraine War is proving a profound, drastic shift in the global balance of military power. It will impact on Russia’s military stance as well as belligerent China which plans to attack Taiwan. On the other hand, notwithstanding military conflicts and potential wars with counterpart countries, India and Korea’s military power has been focused on defending themselves rather than provoking wars. At this point, the final winner in Asia will be the country to lead regional peace and security, which explores military techniques to prohibit potential wars as a deterrence power.
There are a few prerequisites to become a final winner in geopolitical wartime.
First, if Russia stops the Ukraine War as soon as possible, it still has a chance by recovering national power. As the top monetary resource, Russia’s oil will be totally drained in 59 years and natural gas in 103 years later. Then, economic deficit will scatter Russia into the dreadful cliff to sink in the deep ocean without military development. The Ukraine War propels Russia to get rid of the chance to be a final winner.
Second, if China gives up military provocation to take over Taiwan, ‘military dream’ might come true by surpassing the U.S. Otherwise, such a belligerent plan will be all messed up unless China wakes up the reckless delusion to conquer the world by military expansion.
Third, India gets top priority as the ultimate winner if military conflicts with Pakistan are resolved peacefully with the establishment of a reconciliation treaty. India is at the center, surrounded by Asia, Europe, Africa and even Oceania. And it could have geopolitical merit by getting along with countries in this area, with the exception of Pakistan and China.
Fourth, if Korean Reunification happens, its military power will be much upgraded in speed. Even though nuclear weapons in North Korea become willingly dismantled, the Unified Korea can compete with the U.S. and core military techniques will beat up the U.S. military industries.
Nonetheless, India has great potential to become a final winner of military competition in Asia. As well, the Unified Korea has a better chance after completely removing potential wars around the Korean Peninsula. On the reverse, unless Russia and China stop delusive plan to expand military power though potential wars, the chance as a final winner will be reduced as far as their original dream.
New Military Architecture for Regional Peace and Prosperity
The is an unbeatable question on what is the most important factor to become a real military superpower? There is also very simple answer. Military power shouldn’t conduct military provocation to result in harming its own national competitiveness.
It is an appropriate example that the U.S. never provoked the war to purpose military expansion. Even though the U.S. is absolutely on the top with omnipotent military power in the international society, it has focused on defending itself such as the war on terrorism. It usually dispatches troops to resolve military conflicts between countries and re-conciliates wars. And Korea follows up similar steps to reorganize military architecture in Asia.
Korea and India will lead to set up military architecture in Asia because they are not much belligerent or aggressive toward the counterpart country except defending themselves. It results in less chance to initiate potential wars unless they are attacked or provoked. In addition, Korea and India are top countries in IT industries with highly advanced techniques, absolutely related to developing military techniques.
Therefore, new military architecture will be established for peace and prosperity not only in Asia but also for the global society. It first starts with the goal of regional security but finally advances toward world peace. Asia has been the most dangerous place encompassed by incessant military conflicts and drastic competition. Nevertheless, global peace and security will come from this area, where all the potential wars are hindered or annihilated.
Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: AP