By Denis Korkodinov

    The temporary lull in the Iran-US confrontation, apparently, is again violated. Tehran and Washington once again turned out to be extremely close to an armed confrontation over Yemen and Iraq.

    A spokesman for the U.S. Foreign Office, Brian Hook, officially announced in early December 2019 that the United States has compelling evidence of Iranian supplies of ballistic missile components to the Ansar Allah Yemeni movement. In addition, the American diplomat said that the Ayatollah’s regime secretly delivered short-range missiles to the Hezbollah Iraqi branch.

    It is worth noting that similar accusations on the part of Washington representatives have been made before. However, this time the protest movement in Lebanon and Iraq, which the US plans to use as an instrument of pressure on Tehran, gives a special dramatic effect to the situation. And, given the recent rocket attack on the territory of the “Green Zone” near Baghdad, where the headquarters of the US troops is located, then, most likely, the United States will use this occasion to escalate the conflict with Iran.

    Meanwhile, Tehran began to play with the United States, not hiding its intentions to use the full range of military measures to maintain its regional leadership. Of course, he cannot ignore the threat of losing influence on Beirut and Baghdad, for which he is arming his supporters in these countries. However, such a measure is dictated by considerations of defense, not attack.

    In this regard, the recent statement by CENTCOM Commander General Kenneth Mackenzie on increasing the US military presence in the region, especially after the attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, makes some sense. Thus, the American general indirectly confirmed that under conditions of unprecedented pressure, Tehran was forced to defend itself using all its available resources, including military ones. Among other things, Kenneth Mackenzie noted that the United States has the right to reciprocal use of force against Iran in case tensions develop exponentially.

    The reason for the escalation of the conflict presented itself extremely quickly. Iraqi territory, where the US Embassy is located, as well as the headquarters of the US armed forces in Iraq, was attacked. The United States, having no objective evidence, blamed Tehran for this. Not limited to accusations, Washington dispatched an additional 4,000-7,000 US troops to the region, which was not even during the final stages of the US presence in northeast Syria.

    However, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper did not confirm this information, but, meanwhile, did not exclude the possibility that the deployment of an additional contingent of US forces in the region is already a fait accompli. In turn, Iran can respond in a mirror way, strengthening armed groups loyal to it in the expectation that they will deliver direct attacks on American targets. In this regard, the Middle East again found itself on the verge of open confrontation.

    (The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)

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