By Anton Evstratov
On December 12, the commander of the Libyan National Army, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, ordered his troops to advance on Tripoli and finally suppress the resistance of the “Government of National Accord” controlling the city and its surroundings.
Haftar’s troops were relatively easy to demolish the advanced PNS units and reach the outskirts of Tripoli. However, on December 16, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the sending of his special forces and military equipment to help the government. This measure was taken by the Turkish leader in the framework of the memorandum of military cooperation, signed by him with the head of the Government of National Accord of Libya Fayez al-Sarraj, in Istanbul, Turkey on November 27, 2019.
This document, in fact, enables Turkey to openly violate the arms embargo on Libya established by the UN Security Council back in 2011. Undoubtedly, Ankara did this earlier – Turkish armored vehicles, drones, and other types of weapons appeared from time to time at the PNS forces, which were occasionally captured by Marshal Haftar’s troops and presented to the world community in the photo.
Despite the sufficient amount of such evidence of Turkey’s violation of the Security Council’s decision, no one was going to punish her – on the one hand, to contact such a significant player, and even a NATO member, the concerned parties did not have much desire, on the other, the stakes were not so high – because for several armored cars defining, and possibly fatal foreign policy decisions are not made. However, the open military cooperation and the appearance of Turkish special forces in Libya – albeit so far in limited numbers and only to protect PNS officials – is an obvious increase in these rates by Ankara itself.
It should be noted that Turkey argues its decision not only by cooperation with Libya (represented by the PNS), in itself, but also by the fact that other countries have already intervened in the Libyan conflict, thus long violating the UN Security Council resolution. In his speech on December 16, Erdogan named these countries, accusing the support of the army of Khalifa Haftar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and … Russian mercenaries from PMC Wagner, allegedly fighting on the side of the marshal. Moreover, it was precisely the presence of a significant number of Russian mercenaries that a number of Turkish media explained the onset of the Libyan national army’s offensive. They even called the number of Russians in the ranks of this army – from 600 to 800 people.
It should be noted that these accusations are not without certain grounds. And if it is difficult to obtain any reliable information from the Russian mercenaries of Haftar, then the help of the monarchies of the Persian Gulf to the marshal is obvious. That is how he appeared, for example, the Panzer-C1 missile and cannon systems and Chinese attack drones, not to mention a significant number of small arms. The commander of the LNA and military-technical assistance from Russia requested – such negotiations took place as early as 2017, but they did not bring any result, because Moscow was forced to comply with this decision of the Security Council.
The situation with the military agreement is even more dramatic, given its political background. The “Government of National Accord”, collaborating with Turkey, consisting of Salafi figures and supported by the western tribes of the country, is recognized by the UN, but the de facto people of Libya did not choose it. Haftar, in turn, is loyal to the opposing government force – the House of Representatives, also recognized by the UN and elected by a significant number of Libyans.
This “interim parliament” has its own interim government, led by Abdullah Abdurrahman al-Thani. Both bodies sit in the city of Tobruk.
Each of the opposing centers has its own external allies. While Tripoli can rely on Turkey, Qatar, and possibly Italy, Tobruk is supported by Russia, the United States, Egypt, France, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Why were external forces distributed in exactly this way, in many ways in an unexpected way? There are a number of economic, political and historical prerequisites for this.
On the one hand, it is noticeable that the PNS is supported by Turkey and Italy – states to which Libya previously belonged as a province (Ottoman Empire) or a colony (Kingdom of Italy). And if Italy, in the post-colonial period, due to the proximity of the territory and uninterrupted economic and cultural ties, retained its, albeit indirect, influence in the country, then Turkey, led by Erdogan, considers Libya through the prism of pan-Ottomanism and the revival of the lost empire. We must not forget, however, that before the overthrow of the Gaddafi government, about 25 thousand Turkish citizens lived in Libya, significant Turkish investments were made there.
It is investments and the economic part that bring us to another reason for the current alignment of forces in Libya. The fact is that Turkey is now actively investing in the Libyan economy. Turkish investments in the country already reach billions of dollars. Mostly Turks invest in the construction and restoration of Libya. Associating her hopes with the PNS, Ankara is hoping to profit from her investments, and is ready to defend them. Moreover, it is Turkey that now receives most of the Libyan oil, which also makes Libya and its PNS for Ankara a tasty morsel.
In this context, it is worth considering another agreement signed by Saraj in Istanbul – a memorandum of understanding on maritime zones. Thus, Turkey secured a significant part of the shelf of the Mediterranean Sea, where gas fields have recently been discovered. The control zone of Turkey stretched almost a straight line to the Libyan coast, cutting off Greece from the gas-bearing regions near the island of Crete, and, in fact, preventing the republic of Cyprus from getting gas.
Thus, this document opposed the PNS and Turkey to Greece, its EU countries, Cyprus, as well as having its own interests in the Mediterranean Sea (as well as in stable Libya with the secular, so similar to the Egyptian president, Generalissimo al-Sisi, the head – Marshal Haftar) Egypt, literally pushing these countries into the arms of Marshal Haftar, who stated that he did not recognize the agreements signed by Saraj. As for the UAE and Saudi Arabia, they, in turn, would like to invest in the restoration of Libya and get corresponding profits from this.
The position of Russia, which has no special interests in the Mediterranean Sea and is not involved in gas production in it, deserves special attention. Nevertheless, Russia supports Haftar as a secular leader, aimed at combating Libya’s “national saviors” associated with the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. Haftar and the government in Tobruk are seen in Moscow as a kind of analogue of Assad in Syria, and the orientation of Moscow towards him in this regard is quite logical.
However, in Libya, Russia, on the contrary, supports the “rebel” Haftar against the seemingly internationally recognized “Government of National Accord”. However, the degree of legitimacy of each of the forces of the Libyan confrontation is approximately equal, so Moscow has not yet issued official support for the marshal, invariably stating that she is in contact with each of the centers of the struggle.
At the same time, here the positions of Russia unexpectedly come close to the interests of its geopolitical rival – the United States of America. The fact is that Marshal Haftar, during his disgrace under Gaddafi, was forced to flee to the United States, received American citizenship there, which he has not parted with until now, and continues to maintain ties with a number of politicians in Washington. It is noteworthy that American President Donald Trump spoke to Haftar on the phone, who then erupted in praise of the Marshal, which can be regarded as his support.
However, there were tweets of the same Trump that the Libyan commander did not choose the allies correctly, which could lead to his defeat, which makes sense to perceive in the opposite way. The fact is that Washington, as in many other regions, acts in Libya contradictory and cautiously. In addition, Americans cannot help but be bothered by Haftar’s friendship with Russia. As a result, they also cannot unambiguously and publicly put on the Marshal and his army and parliament in Tobruk
In addition, the United States categorically does not like the strengthening of Turkey, which is already positioning itself as an anti-American force in the Middle East. Also, the Libyan conflict is a good chance to drive a wedge into relations between Ankara and Moscow, which has already delivered the S-400 complexes to the Turks and is ready at any moment to continue and deepen military cooperation – bypassing the US and NATO. In addition, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, in addition to pursuing their own goals and interests in Libya, are also the military-political bloc created by the United States of the Sunni Arab states. He did not show his best in confronting Iran in Yemen, and in Libya he received a kind of “second chance” from the Americans.
As for France, it is Turkey’s main opponent in Europe. It was Paris that largely contributed to Erdogan’s breakup with hopes of joining the EU. Moreover, it is France that is now Turkey’s main competitor and ill-wisher in NATO. The ousting of the Turks from Libya is an important direction in the foreign policy of France, which itself has little chance of asserting its influence in the country.
At the moment, Turkey’s position in Libya seems very strong. President Erdogan expressed a desire to discuss the Libyan issue in a personal meeting with Putin at the beginning of 2020, and Greece’s complaints about his agreement with the PNS had practically no progress on the part of the EU and the world community as a whole except for verbally condemning Ankara. However, in reality everything is more complicated. The fact is that, while Erdogan in Turkey rules at the moment almost single-handedly, Saraj’s situation in the territories controlled by him is not so stable.
The sheikhs of the Misurata tribes, who had previously been the most valuable pillar of the PNS, accused the government and Saraj personally of betraying Libyan national interests. Meanwhile, it is Misurat’s militants who are the most disciplined and combat-ready in the ranks of the “Government of National Accord” troops. In many respects, the PNS owes its efforts to this very day to their existence – they managed to stop the April offensive of the Haftar forces. Deprived of this support, even with Turkish weapons, Saraj most likely will not stand. For this, the Misurat tribes do not have to join the LNA at all – just neutrality is enough.
However, recently Saraj was almost overthrown by units stationed in Tripoli itself – he had to hide from his own residence after the militants who had not received their salaries for a long time literally stormed it.
In addition, the Egyptian president Abd al-Fattah Sisi, in response to Turkish promises to provide the PNS with weapons and, possibly, at the request of the government, even to begin the intervention, promised to equip Haftar with Egyptian tanks to successfully continue the offensive and occupy Tripoli.
According to military experts, the capital of Libya, if the situation does not fundamentally change, will fall, after a few days. At the same time, it is obvious that in the near future a whole series of agreements determining for the entire region will be concluded – vowels and unspoken ones.
First, Russia, already having experience of relatively successful agreements with Turkey in Syria, will try to transfer it to Libya. Apparently, Moscow will try to “buy” the non-interference of the Turkish armed forces for the existence of the Libyan “Government of National Salvation” at least in some, albeit little, influence on that. This is necessary for further negotiations with the authorities of Tobruk and Haftar, and the development of agreements acceptable to both Turkey and the Russian Federation and other allies of the Marshal. It is worth recalling that the Russian Federation invariably emphasizes that it stands not only for a ceasefire in Libya, but also for negotiations between the warring parties on its territory.
Secondly, the United States, in the light of the Russian-Turkish agreements, will try, on the one hand, to reorient the government in Tobruk and Marshal Haftar (alienating them from Russia), and on the other, acting on tribal sheikhs, to weaken the influence of Turkey as much as possible. If both vectors are successful, Washington will become the third force in Libya, all the more powerful because it is also supported by neighboring Egypt and the UAE with Saudi Arabia.
The latter, in the event of a decisive victory for the LNA, will begin to invest more actively in the Libyan economy and infrastructure, trying to oust the Turks from their current positions.
Separately, it is worth mentioning the role of Israel in the Libyan conflict. Tel Aviv stands here on the side of Haftar and his allies, trying to prevent the dominance of Turkey in the gas-rich parts of the Eastern Mediterranean. There is unconfirmed evidence of the training of Marshal’s soldiers by Israeli military instructors. Acting in tandem with Egypt, the Arabian monarchies, the USA and Greece, Israel will try to weaken Ankara in the Mediterranean Sea.
Thus, in Libya, Turkey as a whole and Erdogan personally find themselves in a difficult and confusing situation, which will not be easy to get out of. Not only the Libyan case, but also the fate of Ankara’s claims for regional leadership and ambitions for at least a partial revival of the Ottoman Empire will largely depend on how this country and its leader behaves.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)