Although much has been said about the migrant crisis, the prospect of another wave of refugees and migrants brings many of the questions back on the surface. Not just for the destination countries but also the countries where the smugglers are operating. And while the attention is mostly aimed at the migrant flow from the middle east, the massive wave of migration is also crashing through North Africa, and more specifically through Lybia – the main gateway to Europe for sub-Saharan migrants.
Combined with the increased number of smugglers and armed groups in post-civil war Lybia, we can agree that this represents one of the main security issues that the European Union is currently facing. In this article, we will analyze this complex issue through the prism of national security and the geopolitical interest of the European states.
- A Failed State
In order to understand the problem, we need to take a look back and analyze the genesis of the issue. After the fall of the Gaddafi regime, Lybia found itself into a power vacuum with many of the armed militant factions aiming to take control of the country. This resulted in a prolonged internal conflict and destruction of the state and security institutions which had a galvanizing effect on the smuggling networks. Moreover, the situation created a perfect opportunity for opening a human traffic market through which many of these militant factions generated their war funds. Also with the lack of credible government forces to observe the 1,100-mile coastline gave the smugglers an opportunity to fill the void and to send thousands of migrants towards the shores of Italy. According to the International Migration for Migration, the flow of migrants crossing the Mediterranean does not seem to slow down which in turn prompted some EU member states to take action.
As we have stated in the introduction, this route represents one of the main gateways to Europe. On that note, it is important to emphasize that not just economic migrants are part of the flow but also some former members of militant organizations and armed factions from the various civil uprisings and conflicts across the African continent. Many of these asylum seekers are undocumented and there is no way that the European security agencies can determine their background. This represents a serious breach of the European Union’s internal and external security. Moreover, many militant organizations such as ISIL (which has a notable presence in Libya) may have used this route to spread into the European continent through the huge masses of migrants.
The second security issue for Europe is the potential for social unrest among the local population. This is based on the fact that a significant taxpayers money is used for taking care of the migrants. The result of this can be a social dissatisfaction of the domestic population which in turn can create a conflict with the state authorities and certain divisions in the society.
- The Libyan Bottleneck and Italy
From a current point of view, the issue remains in the same state as it was in 2016. The European Union is still deeply divided about how to resolve this complex issue. However certain states have taken strategic actions in order to protect their national security and their national interests. One notable example is the newly formed Italian government and its stance towards this complex problem. Their newly introduced policy of refusing stranded ships can have a short-term effect on containing the problem and keeping the masses at the Libyan shores. However, in the long term, it generates a potential bottleneck of migrants in North Africa.
Another potential security issue is the so-called re-routing. As we have seen before during the peak of the crisis in 2015 and the Balkan route, smugglers and migrants tend to find new ways and gates for reaching Western Europe. According to the numbers from Frontex, the numbers of arrivals in Spain is on a constant rise and this European country may be the new target for the smuggling networks. Combined with the increasing numbers of Migrants on the Libyan coast, the potential for another big wave is more real than ever.
- The Need for Unified European Policy and the Italian Government.
In order to solve this problem in the long term, the European community needs a strategic partnership and cooperation between the member states. As we have seen with the Austrian leadership and pressure towards the Balkan states, the flow of migrants and refugees coming through this route was significantly decreased. That is why the change of the Italian policy is one of the most important moments that can lead towards solving this problem in the long term. The Italian refusal to accept the NGO rescuing ships may spark and pressure other member states to cooperate in the process of closing the routes and combating the smuggling networks. By adopting these policies, the Italian authorities can have a significant effect in discouraging the migrants to take the dangerous journey to Europe. Yet, this policy can only protect the Italian interests and may prompt problems to other states such as Spain and Malta. That is why it is imperative to agree on a united framework for certain states in the EU about how to handle the problem.
As for the Libyan side, it seems that the lack of concrete European Policy for solving this issue has dragged the fragile country into the problem.