World Geostrategic Insights interview with Ainur Amirbekova on the prospects and challenges for development of the economic and trade relations between Europe and Kazakhstan; the progress in the U.S.-Kazakhstan economic relations and Kazakhstan’s economic collaboration with China, with particular reference to the establishment of the Silk Road E-Commerce Pilot Zone.
Ainur Amirbekova, PhD, is an expert in international trade, particularly within the frameworks of the WTO and EAEU, she specializes in market access negotiations and provides advisory support to the Government of Kazakhstan on trade facilitation, paperless trade, trade remedies, e-commerce, and carbon footprint issues. She was a key member of the negotiating team for market access in multilateral agreements and free trade areas.
Q1 – Overall, the European Union is Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner and the major foreign investor in the country. As an example, Kazakhstan is one of the non-European Union countries which will benefit from the European Investment Bank’s €465 million fund recently approved to support agriculture. Currently, Kazakhstan is actively seeking to diversify its economy and to further deepen its economic ties with Europe, not only at EU level, but also by enhancing bilateral agreements with individual member states, to develop collaboration in key sectors such as energy, trade, transport connectivity, food security, technology, governance. Earlier this year, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made a high-level visit to Italy, the third top trade partner for Kazakhstan in 2023, signing seven intergovernmental agreements and 16 commercial memoranda. In September, President Tokayev also received a German delegation headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and in November led an official state visit to Hungary and France. In your opinion, what are the prospects and challenges for development of the economic and trade relations between Europe and Kazakhstan?
A1 – The European Union stands as Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner and foreign investor, a testament to the depth of their strategic alignment. With 40% of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade and nearly half of its direct foreign investment originating from the EU, this partnership represents a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economic growth. The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) not only ensures regulatory alignment but also paves the way for deeper collaboration in services, energy, and intellectual property.
Kazakhstan’s fertile lands and agricultural diversity make it a natural partner for Europe’s growing demand for sustainable food sources. Products like honey, horse meat, and aquaculture reflect Kazakhstan’s readiness to supply high-quality, organic goods. Yet, unlocking the full potential of this sector requires strategic investment in packaging, branding, and compliance with EU safety standards—a step that would transform Kazakhstan into a leader in eco-conscious agri-food exports.
The 2022 Memorandum of Understanding on green hydrogen and critical raw materials signifies a bold step toward shared sustainability goals. By integrating Kazakhstan’s resources with Europe’s expertise, the partnership seeks to decarbonize industries and foster renewable energy technologies. This synergy aligns with Europe’s Green Deal and supports Kazakhstan’s ambitions to modernize its energy infrastructure and reduce its carbon footprint.
While the prospects are promising, logistics remain a critical bottleneck. High costs and inefficiencies in the supply chain limit the accessibility of European products to Kazakhstan’s regions. Similarly, Kazakhstan faces significant hurdles in preparing for the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Without modernization, the carbon tax risks diminishing the competitiveness of Kazakh exports, especially in carbon-intensive industries like metallurgy and chemicals.
Kazakhstan’s strategic location as a crossroads between Europe and Asia holds untapped potential for enhancing transport routes like the Middle Corridor. Investments in infrastructure and digital connectivity would not only reduce trade costs but also position Kazakhstan as a central player in global supply chains.
High-level visits and agreements with countries like Italy, Germany, and France exemplify Kazakhstan’s proactive diplomacy. These interactions are more than ceremonial—they reflect a shared commitment to deepening ties in energy, digitalization, and food security. However, true progress will depend on translating these agreements into actionable projects.
The strength of a partnership lies in its ability to adapt and innovate, and EU-Kazakhstan relations are no exception. This collaboration is not merely transactional; it is a platform for exchanging expertise, building resilience, and fostering innovation. Together, they can create a model of sustainable development that bridges continents and serves as an inspiration for global cooperation.
To thrive in the face of challenges, Kazakhstan must focus on regulatory reform, technological modernization, and fostering innovation. For Europe, the opportunity lies in supporting Kazakhstan’s journey toward diversification and green growth. By aligning efforts in infrastructure, governance, and digital transformation, this partnership can redefine economic resilience in an interconnected world.
“Kazakhstan is not just a partner; it is a bridge that connects continents, cultures, and opportunities,” remarked President Tokayev. As both sides continue to deepen their ties, the EU-Kazakhstan partnership holds the promise of building a future where innovation, sustainability, and shared prosperity become the foundation of a new global economic order.
Q2 – Kazakhstan is the top Central Asian country for foreign investment and it is also becoming an increasingly attractive destination for U.S. investment. The U.S. Congress is considering how to strengthen ties with Kazakhstan, including by granting the country Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status and repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment. How do you see the potential for significant progress in U.S.-Kazakhstan economic relations?
A2 – Central Asia as a region demonstrates substantial economic potential and is becoming increasingly attractive to foreign investors. As the largest economy in the region, Kazakhstan continues to solidify its position as a reliable partner and a compelling destination for international investment, including from the United States.
Kazakhstan is implementing comprehensive programs to improve its business environment through digitalization and the simplification of regulatory procedures. Proactive efforts to reduce trade barriers and streamline processes make the country particularly appealing to U.S. companies seeking long-term projects.
The country is actively promoting the development of its technology sector, including IT, green energy, and industrialization. With a growing demand for highly skilled professionals and an educated youth, the U.S. and Kazakhstan have the potential to become strategic partners in advancing technology, startups, and innovative projects.
Kazakhstan also serves as a pivotal logistics hub in Eurasia, offering access to rapidly growing markets in Central Asia, China, Russia, and Europe. Initiatives like the “Middle Corridor” are opening new opportunities for the export and import of goods, enhancing the country’s strategic significance.
Furthermore, Kazakhstan is striving to reduce its reliance on raw materials, aligning with U.S. interests in supporting sustainable growth and fostering partnerships in high-value sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and renewable energy.
Kazakhstan’s elevated international profile, including its participation in sustainable development and climate initiatives, provides additional opportunities to deepen collaboration with the United States, particularly in areas like technology funding and green energy innovation.
The potential repeal of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment and the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status will be pivotal for enhancing economic ties between the U.S. and Kazakhstan. These measures would simplify trade, encourage greater involvement of U.S. companies in Kazakhstan’s economy, and send a strong signal to other nations about the United States’ trust in Kazakhstan as a strategic partner.
The U.S. and Kazakhstan have a unique opportunity to foster strategic collaboration in technology, innovation, renewable energy, IT, and the creative industries. With a growing pool of educated youth and a rising demand for skilled labor, Kazakhstan’s efforts in green energy, IT development, creative economy initiatives, and industrialization align seamlessly with U.S. priorities in sustainable growth and innovation. Joint ventures in startups, tech ecosystems, R&D, and creative hubs can serve as the foundation for a robust and multidimensional economic partnership.
Technology and Innovation
Kazakhstan is actively promoting the development of its technology sector, including IT, green energy, and industrialization. With a growing demand for highly skilled professionals and an educated youth, the U.S. and Kazakhstan have the potential to become strategic partners in advancing technology, startups, and innovative projects. However, the lack of a mature tech ecosystem and limited access to venture capital remain key obstacles. The U.S. can play a crucial role in nurturing Kazakhstan’s tech landscape, but significant investment in infrastructure, mentorship, and entrepreneurial culture is required to unlock its full potential.
Creative Industries and Cultural Exports
The burgeoning creative industry, encompassing digital media, design, and cultural exports, also offers fertile ground for collaboration. By leveraging Kazakhstan’s rich cultural heritage and U.S. expertise in scaling creative businesses globally, both nations could create a vibrant and mutually beneficial creative economy. Nonetheless, the creative sector in Kazakhstan remains underfunded and lacks global exposure. Without strategic investment and international partnerships, the industry’s potential might remain unrealized. Collaborative efforts in establishing creative hubs, fostering cultural exchange programs, and supporting innovation in digital content could bridge these gaps, enabling the sector to thrive.
Together, these efforts in technology, innovation, and creative industries can establish a resilient and diversified economic partnership between the U.S. and Kazakhstan, driving long-term growth and shared prosperity.
Q3 – Kazakhstan is the leading Central Asian country in terms of trade turnover with China, and it handles more than 80 per cent of land transport from China to Europe. During the opening ceremony of the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov highlighted the potential for further cooperation between the two countries with the establishment of the Silk Road E-Commerce Pilot Zone. Can you explain what this initiative foresees?
A3 – The establishment of the Silk Road E-Commerce Pilot Zone under China’s Belt and Road Initiative offers Kazakhstan an opportunity to enhance its role as a key transit hub and diversify its economy through digital trade. With over 80% of land transport from China to Europe passing through Kazakhstan, this initiative builds on the country’s strategic location.
Kazakhstan’s collaboration with Chinese platforms like Alibaba.com and JD.com has facilitated access to new markets, particularly for agricultural and consumer goods. While these partnerships have resulted in tangible benefits, such as increased export contracts, the reliance on external platforms underscores the need for Kazakhstan to develop its own e-commerce capabilities and strengthen regional cooperation within Central Asia.
E-commerce has emerged as a critical driver of Kazakhstan’s economic diversification, contributing to the growth of small and medium enterprises and broadening market access. Digitalization efforts, such as the “Digital Kazakhstan” program, have facilitated significant progress, including the digitalization of 90% of government services and an increase in digital literacy. The services sector, now contributing over 60% of the country’s GDP, underscores this transformation.
A robust regulatory framework, supported by legislation on data protection, electronic payments, and consumer rights, provides a solid foundation for the e-commerce sector’s growth. However, gaps in cross-border regulatory harmonization and consumer data protection remain challenges that could constrain the long-term expansion of digital trade.
While Kazakhstan’s efforts in digitalization and e-commerce legislation are commendable, the ambitious goals of the Silk Road E-Commerce Pilot Zone require cohesive alignment between infrastructure, regulation, and market readiness. Logistical bottlenecks, limited fulfillment infrastructure, and gaps in customs efficiency could hinder progress. Additionally, while partnerships with Chinese platforms provide immediate benefits, Kazakhstan must develop independent e-commerce capabilities and foster regional cooperation to ensure long-term sustainability.
The Silk Road E-Commerce Pilot Zone is more than just a trade initiative; it is a digital bridge connecting markets, promoting sustainable growth, and creating equitable economic opportunities. By leveraging its strategic location, enhancing digital infrastructure, and fostering cross-border collaborations, Kazakhstan can position itself as a leader in digital trade within the Belt and Road framework. However, success will depend on addressing existing challenges and ensuring that the benefits of e-commerce are widely distributed across its economy.
Ainur Amirbekova, PhD – Expert in international trade, particularly within the frameworks of the WTO and EAEU, she specializes in market access negotiations and provides advisory support to the Government of Kazakhstan on trade facilitation, paperless trade, trade remedies, e-commerce, and carbon footprint issues. She was a key member of the negotiating team for market access in multilateral agreements and free trade areas.
In addition to her role as a consultant, Ainur serves as a business coach for SMEs and exporters, focusing on trade logistics, marketing and product branding. She is engaged in international research collaborations with organizations such as ITC, GIZ, UNCTAD, USAID, OECD and UN ESCAP, which further enrich her expertise in trade facilitation and related areas.