Despite the fact that Tunisia formally maintains neutrality in the Libyan conflict, the country’s law enforcement agencies and the army are put on high alert in areas bordering with Libya, where a surge in terrorist activity is projected.
Meanwhile, some regional players, and, in particular, Turkey, may seek to drag Tunisia into the Libyan confrontation, deliberately pulling the pro-Turkish armed forces to the Libyan-Tunisian border, which could organize provocations against Tunisia. According to Turkish analysts, this development may force Tunisia to intervene in the confrontation between the Libyan National Army and the Al-Vefak government.
Whether Turkey will be able to spread the Libyan crisis to Tunisia, especially for the World Geostrategic Insights, Denis Korkodinov talked about this with the Tunisian political activist and national security expert, Mohamed Nefzi.
1. On January 30, 2020, the official representative of the Libyan National Army, Ahmad al-Mismari, said at a press conference that a group of pro-Turkish militants from the Syrian province of Idlib are currently based at Al-Assa’s military base in Libya on the border with Tunisia. Is it really? Are pro-Turkish militants in Libya a threat to Tunisia? How likely is the Libyan theater of operations to spread to Tunisia? Are Tunisian law enforcement agencies taking the necessary measures to protect the border with Libya?
MOHAMED NEFZI: The situation in Libya is a manifestation of a major conflict between various military and political groups pursuing different interests. However, I do not expect that these groups of influence, concentrated, among other things, on the territory of the military base of Al Assa, can launch an attack on Tunisia. Meanwhile, we still cannot be absolutely sure that Tunisia is in fact not in danger. The question of national security of our country is still open.
Pro-Turkish militants in Libya pose a danger to Tunisia due to the presence of a large number of terrorist elements. And these elements, disguised as refugees, can infiltrate Tunisia. However, the likelihood of the spread of the Libyan conflict is almost impossible.
Tunisia is the “red line” that the most active participants in the conflict in Libya are unlikely to cross. The republic has experience in controlling the Libyan situation, as evidenced by the war between the regime of Muammar Gaddafi and the opposition.
Tunisia has also taken exceptional security measures to protect its borders. In particular, our law enforcement agencies deployed barrage detachments along their border strip, where they carry out active intelligence work to keep abreast of everything that is happening in Libya and to identify all suspicious movements aimed at creating a threat to Tunisia’s security.
Tunisia also has specialized groups classified internationally that conduct successful operations against terrorists. One such successful operation was the liquidation of the leader of the Ukba bin Nafi Brigade, Khaled Shaib (Lukman Abu Sahr). For this reason, the confrontation between the Libyan National Army and the Government of the National Accord of Libya is unlikely to occur on the territory of Tunisia.
2. Following the results of the Berlin Conference on Libya, a decision was made to reform the Central Bank of this country. At the same time, the process of discussing the details of economic reform was transferred to the territory of Tunisia. Why was this done? Does Tunisia have an impact on the Central Bank of Libya? What decision can be made following economic meetings in Tunisia regarding the reform of the Central Bank of Libya?
MOHAMED NEFZI: The biggest mistake for the countries of the world is the exclusion of Tunisia at the Berlin Conference. Subsequently, the President of Tunisia refused to attend the second conference due to a delay in the invitation and the lack of an invitation to the previous conference. This was a serious omission of the international community, since it is impossible to achieve any peaceful solution in Libya, ignoring the position of Tunisia, which directly borders the Libyan theater of war.
Tunisia and Libya influence each other’s central banks, despite the wars of recent years. We did not close the borders due to the daily trade exchange between countries. In addition, Tunisia is concerned about everything related to the Libyan Central Bank and the Libyan situation as a whole.
Currently, the territory of Libya is divided into independent enclaves, as a result of which the Libyan Central Bank does not receive all of the country’s income. Therefore, I cannot speculate on the topic of economic decisions in a country that is bleeding and is witnessing separatist tendencies.
3. On January 17, 2020, representatives of the highest military command of Tunisia officially announced that they would consider any “illegal” aircraft located near the borders of Tunisia and Libya as a target. Does this mean that the armed forces of Tunisia can hit any air target located in close proximity to the borders with Libya? Iran has already shot down a Ukrainian civilian aircraft, which was mistakenly identified as a military target. Does Tunisia take into account Iranian experience, declaring its readiness to shoot down any target near the border with Libya?
MOHAMED NEFZI: Yes, Tunisia is ready to strike at any object that poses a threat to its national security. In particular, the country’s air forces have already set specific targets on the territory of potential opponents, which in the first place can be destroyed in case of danger to our state. However, it is impossible to predict when this will happen and whether it will ever happen at all, since events in the world, especially in Libya, are completely unpredictable. However, we must be prepared for any scenario. And in the event of an unlawful invasion of armed groups or foreign states into the territory of Tunisia, our response will be the toughest and quickest.
Of course, we take into account the mistakes made by Iran, which shot down a civilian plane, mistaking it for a cruise missile. I think that all countries of the world have learned a lesson from this and have been able to improve their target recognition systems. Therefore, it is unlikely that Tunisia, succumbing to emotions, could erroneously bring down a civilian plane, since we made great efforts to ensure that such a scenario never became a reality.
4. On December 26, 2019, Turkish President Recep Erdogan confirmed his readiness to support the Government of the National Accord of Libya, led by Fayez al-Sarraj. At the same time, the Turkish leader noted that he was ready to do this together with Tunisia. However, on December 26, 2019, the Tunisian president’s apparatus announced that Tunisia was not going to be part of any coalition in Libya. What Tunisia takes a position in the Libyan conflict? What determines the interest of Tunisia in Libya, except for the common state border?
MOHAMED NEFZI: Tunisia has taken neutrality since the start of the internal conflict between the Libyans. We will not enter into an alliance with Turkey or other countries, because Tunisia’s participation on one side of the conflict would mean that we could become a target for the other side of the Libyan confrontation, which would threaten our sovereignty.
Meanwhile, Tunisia’s interests in Libya are innumerable, and they are largely related to the economy. We can assume that Tunisia and Libya are one country. And not one part of this “country” is able to refuse mutual cooperation.
Image Credit: Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Reuters