By Denis Korkodinov
Apparently, President Trump may drastically change his views about the possibility of increase hostilities against the Ayatollah regime.
Before he tried to prevent escalation of the conflict, despite the fact that US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser John Bolton had a different opinion. But now that the American economy is in deep decline and the result of the upcoming presidential election has become doubtful, as Joseph Biden valiantly gets the sympathy of the electorate, Donald Trump is in a very delicate situation. Therefore he could be forced to exacerbate the confrontation to strengthen its position nationally and internationally.
In a pandemic situation, Washington could tighten sanctions against Iran and try to provoke a military conflict in the Persian Gulf. The war should unite the Americans and distract them from the ineffective White House struggle to deal with the aftermath of the coronavirus.
Meanwhile, apparently, Tehran may also be ready for war. This will is dictated by the drop in the rating of the Ayatollah regime due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this regard, a war could become an instrument of consolidation of the Iranian society and an important reason to divert the attention of the Iranians from the economic problems associated with the coronavirus.
For this reason, during the ongoing military exercises, the boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps set fire to American ships, bringing them to an extremely dangerous distance. The launch of the Nur spy satellite also became a sort of provocation against the United States and Israel. Eventually, the Ayatollah regime realizes that sooner or later American and Israeli intelligence agencies will try to get the Iranian satellite out of orbit and turn it into space junk. But then, Tehran will be able to use the fact of the destruction of the space satellite as an excuse for war.
Obviously, the head of the White House was trying to prevent the possibility of open hostilities against Iran. However, the coronavirus has made significant changes to the American administration’s plans. Donald Trump has begun to show concern as Joseph Biden is earning political points in the presidential race. However, the President of the United States knows that Congress will resolutely refuse to provide money for military operations. Congress may, however, change its mind if Iran was the first to hit US territory.
Therefore, Donald Trump could try to provoke Tehran to make the first blow. And most likely, the head of the White House may also be prepared to put US military bases located within the reach of the Iranian ballistic missiles at risk. However, Iran is also waiting for the first strike from the United States.
It is worth noting that a US-Iran war has never been the target of Tehran and Washington. It was mainly a means of pressure to achieve certain results, which for each of the parties were different. Therefore, in the pre-coronavirus era, the Ayatollah regime sought to weaken the presence of the United States, considered the main obstacle to the creation of a Shiite community. On the other hand, Washington intended to put pressure on Iran, which was limiting the movement of U.S. maritime goods across the Persian Gulf. However, coronavirus has radically changed the situation. Now both sides might want the same thing: a tightening of confrontation, as an incentive for the unity of their respective nations and gain national consent.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)