By Denis Korkodinov
Recep Erdogan, organizing the operation “Source of Peace” faced with a difficult choice. On the one hand, he needs to soften the mood of Iraqi Kurds, who may consolidate with the Kurdish population of Syria. On the other hand, as a result of international pressure, Erdogan is nevertheless forced to give the opportunity to the Kurds of Rojava, at least to those who, in Ankara’s opinion, have anything to do with YPG, to safely leave the territory of the military operation without the risk of being destroyed.
And if the fulfillment of the second task – dividing the population of northeast Syria into moderate and radical groups – for the Turkish president is not difficult, the first task is an overwhelming burden for Ankara. The problem is that the Iraqi Kurds can significantly strengthen the defense forces of the Kurdish area of Syria “People’s Protection Units” (YPG), by sending additional military equipment and militias, which may create significant problems for the Turks.
The military success achieved by Democratic Union Party (PYD) in Syria in the fight against the Islamic State, and its affiliated armed groups, allowed the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to increase its claims against the central government in Turkey. Therefore, in order to create a relative superiority over the Syrian Kurds in the course of the operation “Source of Peace”, Ankara has to find an agreement with the leadership of “PKK”.
It is worth noting that, against the backdrop of the Turkish offensive in Rojava, the leader of the Iraqi Kurds Masoud Barzani recently organized a large conference in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, to which the heads of all Kurdish communities were invited. Among other things, Masoud Barzani established also a cooperation with the with official government of Baghdad, and he is able to manage the formation of a sufficiently powerful anti-Turkish coalition in Iraq.
The composition of this alliance, of course, is a warning to Recep Erdogan, who is driving the Syrian Kurds to the Iraqi border. At the same time, the main task of YPG at this stage of Operation Source of Peace is to try to move as close to the Iraqi border as possible in order to reach the Iraqi Kurds to unite the fronts against Ankara.
If the Erbil-Baghdad-El-Kamyshly alliance turns out to be stable, and the Kurds do not squabble among themselves, before the Turks establish their control over northeastern Syria, Recep Erdogan may face a significant obstacle to the implementation of Operation Source of Peace. And, apparently, this is exactly what will happen. Meanwhile the Turks, if they complete the offensive in Rojava within a month, they will be able to get stuck in the region for an indefinite time.
Right now, PYD and the Workers Party of Kurdistan (RKK) are still trying to maintain conditional neutrality with respect to Turkey, but they will be ready to fall under arms with YPG if Recep Erdogan refuses to negotiate with them, or if the results of these negotiations do not suit the Iraqi Kurds. Therefore, Turkey, playing the Syrian card, should not forget that the Kurds in Irak may poses a serious threat to this plan, if the Kurds in Syria will be so wounded to put in danger also the existence of the Kurds in Erbil.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)