By Denis Korkodinov
Iran intends to oust Russia from Syria and replace it with loyal groupings of forces, including the Hezbollah movement.
Dreams of the Ayatollah regime on the formation of a “Shiite belt” connecting the continental part of Iran and the Mediterranean coast, were hatched for a long time. This is due to Tehran’s desire to provide absolute control over the waterways of almost the entire Middle East.
And if relatively recently Russia was considered by the Ayatollahs as a partner in the process of conquering access to sea transport routes, now Moscow is considered a hindrance, especially after it officially declared its neutrality in the US-Iran conflict.
Now Tehran’s anger towards Moscow is so great that the Iranians not only do not want to cooperate with the Russians, but also try to create obstacles to their participation in Syria. In particular, Iran plans to create its own military base in close proximity to Khmeimim. The key stronghold of Iranian forces in Syria could be the port of Banias, which is likely to significantly complicate Russian military operations in the region.
Ensuring Tehran’s access to the port of Banias and through it to the Mediterranean actually minimizes the economic presence of Moscow in the coastal areas of Syria. In fact, Iran and entered into an alliance with Russia only in order to gain control over the sea routes.
And if this goal is achieved, the Russian-Iranian strategic alliance turns out to be an absolutely unnecessary rudiment of international relations. Moreover, the Khmeimim military base in Syria, in this case, becomes extremely unsafe and meaningless, since any actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces, implemented on the territory of this base, can be easily blocked by Iranian forces. But the most important thing is that Khmeimim can be subjected to almost unhindered attacks by armed formations concentrated in the port of Banias.
Under such conditions, the Kremlin risks not only its Middle Eastern policy, but also the lives of those Russian servicemen who serve in Syria. Iran does not forgive betrayal, and therefore Moscow is practically in a defenseless position in the region.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: en.kremlin.ru