By Denis Korkodinov
Donald Trump, apparently decided to slow down in the confrontation with Iran. Washington is preparing a platform for diplomatic negotiations with the Ayatollahs. However, Tehran does not intend to give up.
Most recently, US Foreign Secretary Mike Pompeo officially confirmed that the White House is willing to negotiate with Tehran without prior conditions. In other words, the US administration sent the Ayatollahs an unambiguous signal that it clears all previously put forward ultimatums and is tuned in to the negotiation process “from scratch.” In addition, Donald Trump said he did not pursue the goal of overthrowing the political regime in Iran. Such a statement was very strange, considering that John Bolton, who is an adviser to Donald Trump, still continues to publicly insist on the need for a coup in Tehran.
Washington, among other things, is determined to soften sanctions on the export of Iranian oil. In April 2019, the White House announced that it would not impose a ban on the export of “black gold” from Iran to those countries that continue to cooperate with the Ayatollah regime. At the same time, sanctions can now be extended to international operations related to the import of oil. Although these contradictory instructions from the United States turned out to be so confusing and feasible so quickly, it is quite possible that at the time of the publication of this article Washington would not surprise us with new restrictions.
Washington’s relationship to Tehran is reminiscent of an old game of good and evil policeman. So, Donald Trump initially lets his advisor John Bolton speak, who is determined to start a war with Iran, thus playing the role of an “evil cop”. And when the parties to the conflict are ready to deal each other a crushing blow, including with the use of nuclear weapons, Donald Trump himself appears on the scene, offering negotiations.
This technique has been used repeatedly by the White House administration. More recently, North Korea was drawn into this game, as a result of which the US President, through a series of tricks related to the organization of the negotiation process, managed to get political bonuses in the form of a softening of the Pyongyang nuclear program.
However, Iran is not North Korea. If we analyze the history of the Iranian-American relations, we can conclude that probably Tehran will not cooperate with the United States under any circumstances. Therefore, the game of a good and evil police officer proposed by Donald Trump is, in this case, doomed to failure, since the Ayatollah regime does not want any negotiations, especially without preliminary conditions.
Based on this, the US-Iran conflict is unlikely to be resolved. Probably, this conflict will subside for a while, but it will not end.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).