By Punsarani Jayawardhana
India was making headlines around the world during last few weeks, with Modi’s government revoking the Article 370 of the Indian constitution which gave India administered region of Jammu- Kashmir some autonomy. This was a unilateral declaration by the Modi government with no parliamentary consultation.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan pledged that he would approach the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to fight against this move of India, fearing that India would ‘initiate ethnic cleansing in Kashmir to wipe out the local population’. The political and security tension heightens with Modi declaring the Buddhist majority region of Ladakh as a separate state of India. While the revocation of Article 370 intensifies the crisis with Pakistan, the declaration of Ladakh as an independent state seethes the tension with China. Despite the fact that both these decisions seem to be purely domestic to Indian politics, regional political implications driven out of these two decisions are already being obvious in the regional politics of South Asia and even in Asia, regarding the peripheral influence on China.
Such stance is taken by the political scientist Ahsan Butt who views that the decision to pull the autonomy of Kashmir, although motivated by domestic politics have its implications reaching beyond India. South Asia, as a region is already the least integrated region in the world; the main cause again being laid on the long standing tension between its two biggest members; India and Pakistan. With the move of revoking Article 370, Pakistan has suspended its trade with India and has expelled India’s top diplomat; thus terminating both trade and diplomatic relations. This, undoubtedly a threat to the intra-regional trade relation, which ranks the least integrated intra-trade relation in a region.
The revocation of Article 370 is such threatening to Pakistan and its allies and this gets worsen given the firm position that the region has taken regarding Islamist fundamentalism and the collapsing economy of Pakistan. With the Article 370 the Indian administered Jammu-Kashmir could enjoy a separate constitution, a state flag and autonomy over the internal administration of the state, except for the defense and foreign affairs.
Along with this, Article 35(a) grants the right to decide who its Permanent Residents are and their rights and privileges. With the revocation, it is alleged that India may encourage the Hindu immigration into the Muslim majority regions of Kashmir whose majority of the population are pro- Pakistan or pro- independence. Such move would drastically change the Kashmiri demography. In his defense, PM Modi claims that such constitutional status hinders the integration of the India- administered Jammu Kashmir with the rest of India.
However, Pakistan with its limited options available is playing the best card possible with the United States manipulating the US’s concerns on a settlement in Afghanistan with al-Qaeda. If the USA doesn’t meet Pakistan’s expectations there is high chance that Pakistan may reciprocate by abandoning the US-Pakistan elaboration to reach a settlement in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al- Zawahir threatened India saying “Don’t forget Kashmir” and now India’s move has fed his narrative. Al- Qaeda may also utilize India’s move as a strategic opportunity to perpetuate their Jihadist movement in Kashmir. This tension is accelerated with South Asia’s brewing threat with ISIS after the Easter attack in Sri Lanka. Hence, India’s alleged ‘undemocratic’ move; despite being ‘domestic’ has its effect not only in the region, also in the super powers like the USA.
Moreover, the declaration of Ladakh as a separate state intensifies India- China tension. Ladakh being a separate and federally controlled state weakens the Chinese claim of controlling it. With this situation, China backs Pakistan to rally multilateral organizations like the UNSC against India. Thus, India’s domestic move has implications transcending its borders even beyond the South Asian region. India- Pakistan issue being aggravated with the revocation of Article 370 and the declaration of Ladakh as a separate state is in the imminence of creating a political, security and even an economically tensed hotspot among the world leaders as well.
The resent of the two neighbors has pierced into the security and economic concerns of the region as always. The main hindrance for South Asia to initiate a pan- South Asian anti- terrorism movement is owing to this begrudge which escalates day by day via such ‘domestic’ political moves. On traditional terrorism, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation’s Convention on Suspension of Terrorism and its traditional protocols represent legal efforts to forge traditional counter- terrorism cooperation. Diplomatic Counter- terrorism Initiatives by South Asian states have included the Indo- Pakistan Joint anti- Terrorism Mechanism of 2006 and the SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk of 1990.
However, the pragmatic efforts to bring these policies and initiatives under the sun would always suffer from the fatal lacuna of an ever oscillating tensed relationship between the region’s two most powerful neighbors. Nevertheless, the deterrence with nuclear arsenal by both India and Pakistan makes it highly unlikely that both the states would dare to initiate a full blown war. This, however never undermines the extreme threat of state- funded terrorism that may erupt anywhere, anytime with this political, economic and security tension.
The threat from Islamic fundamentalism, being aroused with India’s move to revoke Article 370 is felt throughout the region. The weakened trade and economic ties of India- Pakistan has perforated into the trade and commerce of the entire region. While the Indo- Pakistan rapport has almost collapsed with this move, its gravity is felt in both the other regional countries and in global powers like China and the USA in a spill- over effect.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AP Photo/Dar Yasin