World Geostrategic Insights interview with Mohan Kumar on India’s place in the current geopolitical scenario, the prospects for US-India relations in the Trump era, the developments in the troubled India-China relations and the reasons behind the special strategic partnership between India and France.
Ambassador Dr. Mohan Kumar is the Dean for Strategic and International Initiatives, and Professor of Diplomatic Practice, at the Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India. He has had an impressive 36-year career in the Indian Foreign Service, including serving as Indian Ambassador to France. Ambassador Kumar has a vast expertise in the field of international trade and multilateral negotiations, and was India’s chief negotiator at the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) and WTO (World Trade Organization). He contributes regularly to newspapers and publications on diplomacy, geopolitics and strategic affairs, and is the author of the book India’s Moment: Changing Power Equations Around The World (HarperCollins 2023).
Q1 – India’s population has surpassed China’s, making it the most populous country on the planet, and its economy is expected to become the third largest in the world in the coming years. With a balanced approach, India has achieved remarkable diplomatic results in a complex global landscape, maintaining strategic autonomy in the midst of conflicts, strengthening relations with both the United States, other Western powers, and Russia, while also engaging diplomatically with China in an effort to resolve border disputes, and to ease tensions. India has also positioned itself as an important partner for the Global South, expanding its global ambitions, and taking on a leadership role in international fora. How would you place India, and its foreign policy, in the current geopolitical frame? Against the backdrop of international power shifts, is India still just a regional superpower or has it achieved the status of a global power?
A1 – India finds itself in a geopolitical sweetspot, no question about that. India, by itself, does not have the agency or the clout to solve the world’s problems. But without India, none of the problems of the world like climate change or SDGs can make much progress. That said, India has miles to go before it acquires economic heft. India’s GDP, a little over $ 4 Trillion, sounds big but is actually insufficient for a population of 1.4 Billion people, where 500 million people may be living in poverty. My Book “India’s Moment”dwells on this issue at some length. So, India for the time being is a regional superpower, to use your expression, and not yet a global power. India’s foreign policy of “multialignment” has served it well so far. We engage with all powers without exception and leverage our population, economy and geopolitics to good effect.
Q2 – At their meeting in Washington DC on Feb. 13, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump laid the groundwork for greater strategic cooperation between India and the United States in areas such as defense and advanced technologies by launching a new initiative, “US-India COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Trade & Technology) for the 21st Century”. The goal is to bring transformative change in the main pillars of cooperation. What are your thoughts on this initiative? President Donald Trump has expressed admiration for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a “great friend” and a “very smart man”. Despite ongoing trade tensions, a new phase is opening up in the U.S.- India relations under Trump, compared to the previous Biden administration?
A2 – The US is arguably the most important strategic partner for India. The US-India partnership has been called transformative and consequential, and this is hard to deny. US-India partnership is also multifaceted and support for it is bipartisan in the US. At the time of writing this, President Trump has not spared India despite all this and imposed tariffs. India has not retaliated and is still trying to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement which will then roll back these punitive tariffs. Conventional wisdom is that US-India ties under Trump will be better than they were under Biden. Areas of focus will be on defence, technology and trade. AI, Quantum Computing, Critical Minerals etc will be the new focus. But people to people ties will be important as well. To some extent, US-India ties will also be affected by the ties that Trump eventually decides to have with China.
Q3 – India’s relations with its large neighbor, China, pose a major challenge. The Himalayan border is the subject of serious disputes, while China’s assertive foreign policy and its land and sea “Silk Road” program are a source of concern for India, as is Chinese activism in the Indo-Pacific. However, in October 2024, the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to have triggered a warming of relations between the two countries, which share membership in important emerging international organizations, such as the BRICS, and have strong economic and trade ties. China and India seem to want to turn the page after five years of tension. Bilateral negotiations have resumed, and during a meeting last January in Beijing, between the Indian Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yin, several agreements were announced. Amid geostrategic rivalry and economic competition, is a new pragmatic phase emerging in relations between India and China? How do you see the complex relationship between the two countries evolving?
A3 – China is India’s neighbour and they share a long and sometimes troubled border. What happened in June 2020 when troops killed each other in the Himalayas shocked the Indian policy makers and public alike. Since then, China has emerged in the Indian perception as the main strategic threat. Relations were frozen by India following the border conflict and then touched an all time low. Then, last year China extended an olive branch to India and a recent thaw has emerged in Sino-Indian ties.
Chinese actions and India’s response to it may have been influenced, to some extent, by President Trump and the unpredictability he has brought to American foreign policy. So, both China and India are hedging their bets. The thaw is very incipient and it is too early to tell whether it will lead to enduring peace between China and India. After all, China and India still have thousands of their troops facing each other in the Himalayas.
China has resolved the land border problem with all its neighbours except India. The Indian position is that without restoration of normalcy on the Sino-Indian border, no normalization of bilateral ties is possible. China, on the other hand, is arguing that we should set aside the border issue and continue to expand ties in other areas. They say that the Elephant-Dragon dance is the most appropriate one for a peaceful and prosperous Asia.
Q4 – India and France share a deep-rooted strategic partnership, covering several sectors including defense, space, civil nuclear energy, climate change, and various emerging fields such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity. The Horizon 2047 roadmap, adopted in 2023, aims to further extend cooperation in the economic, technological and geopolitical fields for the next 25 years. You served as India’s ambassador to France (2015-17), what are the reasons behind the special strategic partnership between the two countries?
A4 – There is no doubt that the Franco-Indian strategic partnership is special. There are different reasons for this. After the nuclear tests in 1998, India was declared a “pariah” by much of the Western world. France was the only exception and all credit to late President Chirac for maintaining ties with India despite pressure from America and other Western powers. Second, France has been a steadfast defence partner of India without allowing this to be affected by the vagaries of geopolitics. Third, whatever differences the two countries may have, these are aired in private and not in public.
Indian sensitivities are respected by France and vice versa. Fourth, France and India have fruitful ties in areas like Space, Nuclear, AI, Cybersecurity. Fifth, France’s policy on the Indo-Pacific also converges with India’s priorities in the region. In conclusion, the Franco-Indian strategic partnership is one which is really problem-free from India’s perspective.
Ambassador Dr. Mohan Kumar – Dean for Strategic and International Initiatives, and Professor of Diplomatic Practice, at the Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India.