Madeleine Albright, the first female United States Secretary of State in U.S. history, once said, “A lot of people think international relations is like a game of chess, where people sit quietly , thinking out their strategy , taking their time between moves. It’s more like a game of billiards, with a bunch of balls clustered together.”
Forming alliances plays an integral role in international relations and have been a fact of international political life since antiquity. Alliances occur to enhance their members’ collective interests by combining their capabilities, most commonly, to achieve military and political success.
In the contemporary day and age, the international landscape is still dominated by the world powers such as United States of America, Russia, and China; and these countries are unceasingly forming alliances mainly geopolitical in nature. Notably, the rivalry between the U.S. and China is becoming a hot issue in our epoch. President Trump declared for a shift from the focus on the country’s “War on Terror” to the “Great Power Rivalry”, classifying China and Russia as “revisionist powers” that present a huge threat to US hegemony. Because of this shifting trajectory of its foreign policy, US sought for alliances with various countries , included India.
Since India’s independence, ties with the United States have survived the mistrust and hostility of the Cold War era and their relations have developed in recent years thanks to economic and political cooperation. The first significant strategic dialogue of the US and India began in 2010, and subsequent dialogues occasionally followed. On October 26-27, the 2 + 2 ministerial dialogue between India’s foreign and defense ministers and US secretaries of state and defense took place in Delhi. The start of the talks was, to say the least, extraordinary, with US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, who said that “India will be the United States’ most important partner in the Indo-Pacific of this century”. The most notable result of these talks was the formal signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence (BECA). BECA is the latest of four key defense agreements between the two countries that allow for a much higher level of military cooperation in defense technology, interoperability and manufacturing. This agreement marks the birth of Indo-American “unprecedented cooperation” and sets the stage for the forthcoming security cooperation.
There are four (4) core defense agreements between the two countries. The first pact is called the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), signed by the two countries in 2002. GSOMIA, signed under the Indian government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, allowed both countries to create a framework for sharing intelligence military. It provides specific measures to ensure security standards for safeguarding critical information shared by the United States with India. This agreement aims to defend military information that cannot be disclosed to private companies.
In 2016, the United States designated India as a “Major Defense Partner” (along with the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand), signing the Memorandum of Agreement for Logistics Exchange (LEMOA) with India. Many have argued that this was the result of Barack Obama’s historic India in 2016, which created a climate conducive to the development of mutual relations. LEMOA allows both countries to use each other’s military bases for repair and resupply, and provide mutual logistics support to one another for deeper collaboration.
Subsequently, India and the United States signed the 3rd pact called COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) in September 2018, following the first 2 + 2 dialogue between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and the Ministers of Defense of both countries. This defense pact provides for the development of operational compatibility between the respective military forces and the sale of high-end technology from the United States to India. With an expected length of 10 years, COMCASA intends to provide a legal framework for the transfer of overly sensitive communications security equipment that will facilitate interoperability between their armed forces.
Finally, the Basic Agreement for Exchange and Cooperation (BECA) was signed in October 2020. BECA is the latest of four key defense agreements between the two countries that allow for a much higher level of military cooperation in defense technology, interoperability and manufacturing. BECA will enable India to use U.S. geospatial maps to achieve military accuracy of automated hardware systems and weapons such as cruise and ballistic missiles. It will rapidly advance the integration of the Indo-Pacific strategies of the two countries, make an intense commitment to the military forces, and develop a restructuring for the global security load of the United States. The ratification of BECA completes the finalization of the key agreements. Many experts believe that BECA inking is vital for India to neutralize the Russia-China-Pakistan axis in the maritime sector and for the stability of the Indo-Pacific region.
Although both countries appear to have a winning card, given the defense agreements in place, some complaints from various sectors are inevitable. One of the guiding principles of Indian foreign policy is “non-alignment”. The Asian giant sympathizes with world democracies but prefers not to get too close. However, as we can see, ratification of these fundamental agreements is totally against India’s aversion to the alliance system. Many viewers wonder if the country is changing its trajectory in welcoming US friendship, but foreign policy experts in India are of the opinion that by synchronizing its systems with those of the United States, it will enable the latter to enter on its decision cycle. In line with this, India must be cautious not to compromise its national autonomy and must continue its efforts to balance strategic relationship with other global powers, not just the United States. Furthermore, critics fear that tying too closely to the United States could limit India’s choices. The integration of classified military platforms and data breaks the privacy wall for both countries. Unquestionably, access to this type of highly confidential information is an advantage. At the same time, it must be recognized that the information comes with a “price tag” which would not be negligible. Access to this information could lead to positive and unfavorable factors in the future.
In the realm of geopolitics, the India-US defense pact brings a major impact to the Asian region. The conflict between the United States and China is the main interimperial rivalry of our time. It is the product of developments in global capitalism and the comparative deterioration of US imperialism. While China is growing as an imperialist power, the United States perceives India as a counter-power. It is due to the fact that India’s population is expected to overtake China’s over the next decade and can be used to combat its hegemony. Interestingly enough, the defense deal comes at a time of tension between India and China, with the armed forces of both countries engaged in a standoff near the disputed Himalayan border. As for the United States, its ties with China worsen due to a number of issues, including trade disputes, Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus, the imposition of the national security law in Hong Kong, territorial claims in the South China Sea. Apparently, with this pact the US wants to include India in its “hegemony”, and to maintain US dominance by abandoning multilateral cooperation. In turn India moves into the US sphere of influence, which would suggest that India has made its choice and this may exacerbate the deterioration of China-India relations.
Finally, the impact of India’s signing of key military agreements with the United States cannot fail to impact India-Russia relations, which have been a staple of Indian foreign policy for over half a century. India is one of the largest buyers of defense equipment in the world, but around 60-70% of its inventory is supplied by Russia. Due to the pact, India may decrease its cooperation with Russia as there is an exclusive contract for US military equipment and facilities. And, at the same time, the United States fears that its technology and information could easily be exposed to Russia. Of course, India-Russia relations in recent years have not been as strong as they were in before 2014. But India needs to step up its game and show skill in managing its ties with Russia, as it would be a great misery if India-Russia relations will seriously weaken. Furthermore, US and Indian foreign policy makers are divided on important questions, especially regarding relations with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. India must carefully juggle and weigh its strategic relations with these countries to avoid harmful effects on its foreign relations.
In many relationships there is a rejection factor and an attraction factor; an alignment of the two is called a convergence of interests. The world has entered a new and disturbing geopolitical phase. The signing of these defense pacts would certainly allow India and the United States to implement their respective regional and global foreign relations strategies. However, any significant change in the international arena creates new risks and uncertainties, so both countries need to prepare extremely for the worst-case scenario, as the odds may not always be in their favor.