By Samra Hamid
India’s rise in global politics, marked by its deepening relationship with the United States, is reshaping regional dynamics and influencing global power structures.
As India strives to position itself as a dominant global player, its growing technological advancements, military capabilities, and strategic ambitions raise significant concerns not only for neighboring countries like Pakistan and China but also for international powers, including the U.S. While the partnership between the U.S. and India is presented as a critical alliance, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, this cooperation may have far-reaching consequences, including a destabilization of the regional power balance and challenges to U.S. interests in the future.
One of the most impactful developments from the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the U.S. is the decision to establish India’s first semiconductor fabrication plant in Uttar Pradesh, supported by U.S. investment. The semiconductor fabrication plant in India is set to attract direct investment of USD 340 million, along with an estimated USD 1 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). By producing advanced chips domestically, India could significantly reduce its annual import costs, which currently stand at USD 28.7 billion. The plant is aimed to support critical defense technologies, enhancing self-reliance in areas like missile-seekers, radars, drones, and military communications. This development is also expected to create jobs, stimulate economic growth, and lead to long-term cost savings. While this collaboration is seen as a strategic move to reduce dependency on Chinese manufacturing, it also raises concerns about how India’s growing technological power could shift the balance of influence within the region.
Semiconductors are essential to a broad spectrum of industries, including defense, electronics, and vehicle manufacturing. India’s ability to produce these critical components will enhance its self-reliance, thus reducing its dependency on other countries for high-tech goods. While this will boost India’s economic and technological growth, it also introduces a new element of competition, particularly with the U.S., as India becomes less reliant on American exports. Modi’s statement, “The day is not far when you will see made-in-India chips in America. This small thing will take India to another level. And this is Modi’s guarantee” to the Indian diaspora in New York, further strengthens the argument of his goals of dominating American economy, and becoming global power. This shift in dependency could alter the dynamics of the U.S.-India partnership, as India’s increasing technological capabilities may make it less willing to follow U.S. strategic goals in the future.
India’s military modernization, strengthened by its role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, is seen as a countermeasure to China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific. However, this has unsettled regional powers, including Pakistan and China, who view India’s rapid military growth as a potential threat. India’s defense exports increased by 78% in the first quarter of the financial year 2024-25—it is clear that India is positioning itself as a global military-industrial player. India’s defense budget for FY 2024-25 has increased to INR 6.21 lakh crore ($75 billion), up from INR 5.94 lakh crore the previous year. This boost focuses on strengthening military capabilities and infrastructure. INR 1.05 lakh crore is allocated for domestic procurement of advanced weaponry, and INR 6,500 crore is dedicated to enhancing border infrastructure. The sustenance and operational readiness budget has also seen a 48% rise to INR 92,088 crore. Additionally, INR 1.41 lakh crore is reserved for defense pensions, while the Indian Coast Guard will receive INR 7,651.80 crore. India aims to procure new weapons worth INR 1.62 trillion, with a focus on domestic manufacturing to boost self-reliance in defense. Additionally, India has set aside INR 1.62 trillion rupees (approximately $19.64 billion) for procuring new weapons and platforms, primarily sourced through domestic defense contractors.
The implications of India’s military rise are especially concerning for Pakistan, which has long relied on its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent against India. Historically, both nations have maintained a delicate military balance, but India’s acquisition of advanced defense technologies and its expanding military budget could disrupt this balance, leaving Pakistan vulnerable. For Islamabad, this is more than a military challenge—it raises existential concerns regarding the security of its borders and its ability to maintain a credible defense posture. As India grows militarily and economically, Pakistan may be forced to rethink its defense strategy, with potential consequences for regional stability.
India’s expanding influence and bilateral ties are not only limited to the U.S., India is also seeking to diversify its alliances through active participation in organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These forums provide India with a platform to assert its significance, influence, and foster collaboration with other emerging powers, such as China and Russia, on global economic and security issues. India’s role in these organizations reflects its desire to balance its relationships and expand its influence beyond the West. However, this diversification could lead to friction between India and the U.S., particularly if India’s positions within BRICS and the SCO conflict with U.S. interests in global governance.
India’s growing military presence in the Asia-Pacific region is a cause for concern among neighboring countries. India has reinforced its military presence in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by establishing new naval air stations, including the fully operational INS Kohassa on North Andaman Island. These stations enhance India’s ability to monitor key maritime routes such as the Malacca, Lombok, and Sunda Straits. Additionally, India created an Asia-Pacific division within its Ministry of External Affairs to coordinate efforts related to the IORA, the ASEAN, and the Quad. India also collaborates with allies like the U.S. and Australia through joint military exercises and infrastructure development. These defense agreements with nations like Japan, Australia, and France have enabled India to expand its influence beyond South Asia, signaling its intention to project power throughout the region. However, India’s assertive foreign policy, particularly in Kashmir and Afghanistan, could exacerbate tensions with its neighbors and contribute to regional instability. With the backing of advanced U.S. military technology, India may feel emboldened to take a more aggressive stance on its territorial disputes, further heightening the risk of conflict.
India’s ascent as a global power, marked by advanced military capabilities and technological self-reliance, presents both opportunities and risks for the U.S. While the current partnership strengthens India’s role as a counterbalance to China, it also fuels India’s ambitions to become a dominant force in the region. India’s growing influence, especially in forums like BRICS and the SCO, indicates its desire for greater autonomy on the global stage, potentially diverging from U.S. strategic interests. As India enhances its defense capabilities and economic might, regional powers like Pakistan face increased pressure, raising the possibility of destabilization in South Asia. For the U.S., supporting India’s rise requires a delicate balance—fostering a strong ally without inadvertently empowering a future rival that could challenge American influence in the region and beyond.
Author: Samra Hamid – Research Fellow at Balochistan Think Tank Network, Quetta.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).