By Uddipta Singha Lahkar
“India’s nuclear doctrine has greater flexibility than it gets credit for”
-Shivshankar Menon
A recent report published by SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace and Research Institute) has once again warned the world about an ongoing non conventional thermonuclear race where all the NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty) nations are almost in a cut throat competition when it comes to deployed nuclear warheads (ready to fire mode). Though MAD (Mutually
Assured Destruction) was designed to strengthen the deterrence concept since the era of cold war; the current pandemic seems to have been a game changing equation as far as nuclear diplomacy is concerned. India, despite not being interested to be a part of this unprecedented armament race, was forced to increase its nuclear arsenal.
Power of No First Use Policy
Many international reports indicate that, in this thermonuclear age when around 3825 warheads with fission and fusion technology added, are in operational use, the world is yet to see her worse time. Out of these 3825, nearly 2000 warheads (All from Russia and United States) are in a state of high alert. The mistrust among nuclear armed nations had encouraged them to be a part of the elite group of nuclear weapons. So what’s the solution?
Experts have two opposite answers to this question. First, we have to abolish all the existing nuclear weapons across the world in order to have a peaceful environment which seems unrealistic. Second, all the nuclear armed nations have to adopt a reasonable No First Use Policy and act responsibly. NFU talks about not using the weapons of mass destruction against any non nuclear weapon countries, if it is not aligned to any nuclear armed state. It further assured even the nuclear armed nations of not using those weapons at the first instance but if being attacked then it will ensure the complete annihilation of the attacker (Second Strike). NFU provides the trusted mechanisms such as Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD), Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) etc. and transforms nuclear weapons into a tool of peace. Both major powers of the world, America and Russia don’t adhere to NFU, citing references to coalition compulsion such as Article 5 of the NATO act and Article 9 of the Japanese constitution (both are under Pentagon’s nuclear umbrella).
Logic of First Use Policy
As we discussed the nuclear postures of America and Russia (New Military Doctrine, 2014) and their obsession towards First Use, similar policy has been adopted by countries whose foreign policy is based on nuclear warheads as well as where civilian leadership is not allowed to be a part of country’s nuclear positioning, such as Pakistan. First Use Policy is often used when a state considers that they are vulnerable to a rival giant state and frequently gives nuclear threats in fear of invasion. These countries are also heavily dependent on its tactical nuclear bombs for limited warfare. A small nuclear explosive device named Atomic Demolition Munitions (ADMs) has also been deployed by countries with First Use as Americans have deployed it in South Korea. States, busy with modernizing its conventional arsenals, have also relied on First Use for a defence cover.
India’s Nuclear Posture and current challenges
If we decipher the genesis of India’s nuclear doctrine issued by a statement in January, 2003 after a meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security, a sense of rationality could be discovered. Being an aspirant of a permanent member in the UNSC or even before that, India has always been supporting the idea of a nuclear free world but it should be done step by step with proper channels without any biases. Maintained a Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD) as the base of the doctrine, India’s nuclear posture even towards its hostile neighbours is said to be the matured one. India’s nuclear doctrine also considered other Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) as a similar threat to nuclear arsenal and talks about complete destruction of the attacker if attacked either with chemical or biological weapons though as far as biological weapons are concerned, origin of the attack has always remained under dispute owing to the fact that the rogue powers has always denied the launch of it. Being a neighbor of two irresponsible nuclear armed countries where even their civilian leadership was not considered fit to rule them, our nuclear program in response is both pragmatic and transparent. But with time, where multiple new challenges emerge, a review of India’s doctrine has become the need of the hour.
Some defence experts want the First Use Policy to be adopted as a cover to deter any enemy attack in the face of modernizing conventional arsenals. They also want defence imports to be reduced and complete self reliance in the sector. There are also growing concerns about foreign cyber attacks in the recent past on India’s critical infrastructures. Particularly, recent suspected cyber assaults on India’s power grid by China based hacking farm called Red Echo had further forced policy makers to take strong actions on cyber attacks (full confirmation on October 12, 2020 is yet to be established). Similar cyber attack was penetrated by North Korean hackers in 2019 into the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant to steal the information about the design of the reactor. A Cyber assault on India’s vaccine drive to steal the formula is still underway. A few experts are also in favour of countering the cyber attacks by keeping them in the same clause in India’s Nuclear Doctrine where both chemical weapons as well as biological agents are also being mentioned. Discussions to preempt the cyber attacks on country’s critical physical infrastructures by equating it with other Weapons of Mass Destruction without disrupting the means and ends calculus associated with the Nuclear Doctrine should be initiated by the government, as spoofing attacks are on its way to be more dangerous or will have the destructive capabilities in near future as a result of growing digitalization.
Conclusion
India’s nuclear doctrine is considered to be based upon rationality and logic as well as it promotes stability over threats. Surrounded by nuclear armed adversaries, recent latest technologies induction into India’s defence set up (INS Arihant, Dassault Rafale) gives its nuclear option a boost for full fledged retaliations. Nuclear triad of India (launching nuclear attacks from air, land and sea) often neutralizes nuclear blackmailing of its rogue neighbours. At the end, nuclear disarmament should be the objective of all its stakeholders as the Indian doctrine itself argues for or else dark days awaits us. Oppenheimer’s famous quote as he witnessed the first detonation of an atom bomb way back in 1945 indicates the destructibility of it. He said ‘Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.’
Author: Uddipta Singha Lahkar – Master of Social Work (UGC-NET), an enthusiast of world politics and diplomacy.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).