By Rana Danish Nisar
A pragmatic uncertainness paradigm shift has been seen in the inter-state relations of two arch-rivals and nuclear “have” states India and Pakistan in the context of cordiality & normality in the month of March, 2021.
This abrupt shifting form hostility to cordiality is actually not assimilative, embezzlement and devour for the academic, political elites and particular for the jacks of both two nations. Prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan as ambassador of peace suggests that “for the sake of peace of South Asia, we should build-up cordial relations and India should make a possible move” (1). In addition, the words of Chief of Army Staff regarding “India-Pakistan” relations which were “Both nations should bury (2) and entomb the past and should build-up the pillars of cordiality, normality, friendship in the relations of two countries”.
On the day of Pakistan Republic Day, 23rd of March 2021, reciprocally, Prime minister of India Narendra Modi send his warm wishes/greets (3) to his counterpart Prime minister of Islamic Republic of Pakistan Imran Khan and particular greet him for Khan’s fast health recovery on the issue of Covid-19 positive reports. This sudden gesture of Modi has been turned the Pakistan strategic, security, academic pundits in rumination because this is ever first time happened since 2014, when Modi and his beloved hawks encamp in New Delhi and they send soft gestures towards its western border entity Pakistan. The present piece of study in hand will elucidate the reasons behind that why Modi’s gestures has been changed towards Pakistan? What are the Indian cunning objectives behind this course of actions? And can we appreciate the back-door diplomatic role of west particular the USA as supporting actor or behind the scene aim to normalize the relations of two animosity favored nations? And lastly are the current words and welcome notes of both nations India and Pakistan for each others are scripted which are written by the USA and read by Pakistan and India?
Moving ahead, since the very first day of independence, Pakistan and India inter-state relations can be traced with doubts, qualms, misunderstanding, hate, abhorrence, disgust, repugnance, dislike and distaste. The political rift was started among Hindu and Muslims since the inauguration of “All Indian Congress” in 1885 which was Hindu majority Political Party in Sub-continent and established by “A.O. Hume” and reciprocally formation of “All Indian Muslim League” in the year of 1906 which was majority political party of Muslims of united-India and established by renowned Muslim political activist soon after the meeting with viceroy of Sub-continent in 1905 at “Simla”. Likewise, the Khilfat Movemnet (1919-1924), Nehru Report (1928), Quaid’s 14 point (1929), Address of Allahbad by Iqbal (1930), Elections (1935-36), congress Ministries (1937-1939), Lahore/Pakistan resolution Day (1940) by Muslims, Cripps Mission (1942), cabinet Mission Plan (1946), 3rd June Plan (1947) by Last Viceroy Lord Mountbatten, red Cliff award 1947 and unequal distribution of united-wealth of united India , all these events contribute more valid proofs of the hate of “Hindus” and “Muslims” for each other in the contemporary literature of contemporary history.
After independence in 1947, owing to the unequal distribution of wealth and put more balls in the basket of India by Lord Mountbatten, this steps can be called the first sowing of animosity/hatred seed in the inter-state relations of two nations after independence. Since 1947, Pakistan’s security spectrum revolves vis-à-vis offensive India. The war of 1948, 1965, demise of eastern arm of Pakistan in 1971 and constructive role of India in it, Indian nuclear (ab) normalcy and nuclear explosion of 1974 with code “Buda is smiling” Brasstacks events 1986-1987, India-Pakistan nuclear explosions 1998, Kargil Conflict 1999, compound crisis 2002, Bombing attacks 2008, Balakot incident 2016, Pulwama incident 2019 are the lively examples of India-Pakistan hatred inter-state relations. Along this, both nations have multiple bilateral issues i.e. Kashmir issue, Sir Creek issue, Water issues, Siachin conflict etc. precisely, both countries don’t have cordial relations which can elaborate by both nations happily to their next generations.
Moving towards the pin-theme of writing, since the very first day as prime minister of India after winning the elections in 2014, Narnidra Modi has been written his name as 14th Prime Minister of India. Modi was born in the year of 1950 at Vadnagar, Gujarat, India. Before the primer of India, Modi was chief minister of Gujarat form 2001-2014. Modi belongs to BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) and the active member of RSS (Rashtriya Swayamseval Sangh) Hindu extremist party. Since the very first day, Modi gestures towards Pakistan are offensive in nature and his speeches are full of anti-Pakistan. Subsequently the arrival of Trump in oval office and soft sentiments for India and harsh words and looms for Pakistan i.e. Pakistan is “save heaven” for terrorists give more strength to offensive ambitions of India as well as massive confidence to Modi.
The Modi’s visit to USA-2017 and “Howdy Modi-2019” event of 2019 and reciprocal visit of Trump in February 2020 to India further bolster the relations of India and the USA. By using the words “I Love Hindu (4), I Love India, I am big fan of India, (5) America Loves India” (6) by Trump and more than 3 billion USA$ defense deal with India give supplementary confidence to Modi to show his offensive power projection to the entities of Southern Asia. Rana Danish Nisar in his article titled “the conclusion of the future of India-US strategic Romance” (7) argued that in contemporary regional and global politics, two nations are highly integrated with each other and considered each other as indispensable for each other owing to dynamics geo-politics.
Additionally, but after the arrival of Biden as president of America and Indian-American Vice President Kamala Harris in January 2021, according the political pundits, the American-India relations may not be like the Trump-India relations. Biden is the ambassador of protection of democratic values and serve on the renowned designations in American congress as well as vice president. Biden lenses are different from Trump.
Crawling towards the illustration of my perspective, withdraw from the one year long border conflict with China and the current words of Modi and soft looms towards Pakistan, are the script which is written by Pentagon for its ally India as well as for “Major Defense partner & Net security provider”. Interestingly, by follow the traditional realist “Balance of Power” approach, the USA wants both nuclear “have” powers of Southern Asia and both countries India and the Pakistan are now important for Pentagon. The ongoing peace process of Afgsnaistan, settlements talks with afghan Taliban, Checking Iran, Containing Pakistan’s evolving growing, mounting, ever-enhancing dependency on China and countering Chinese influence in South Asia respectively, neutralizing the growing Russian again involvement in Southern Asia and its tilting towards Pakistan and urges to join the “Pakistan-China” nest, dynamics geo-politics of wider South Asia, pentagon definitely wants Pakistan. Despite of ambiguities and misunderstanding, pentagon still knows the importance of Pakistan as nuclear state and its significance in geo-politics as well as geo-strategic context.
Recently, Biden administration admire the constructive role of Pakistan in the peace-process of Afghanistan. The Whitehouse knows the role of Pakistan as reliable ally not only in entire period of “Cold War” and post-9/11 aim to eliminate terrorism But, may be the current Pakistan’s establishment consciously or unconsciously come to know the paradox nature of the USA because the founder of modern American diplomacy and foreign policy Henry Kissinger once said that “America has no permanent friends or enemies but only interests”. (8) But as dependent variable entity of South Asia, Pakistan needs the USA while during dealing with its security, defense, economy and diplomatic support. In the case of India and while discussing the India and the USA relations, now one can take India as independent variable/entity of south Asia and owing to growing changing in geo-politics of wider Asian continent and rising China, the USA can be traced as dependent variable in Asian alliances Mandala (circle).
The democratic morals, rising economy, military and strategic clouts, strategic significance particular near to Indian Ocean, and eastern side pacific, wider geography and largest demography, India is insensible ally for the Pentagon. As compare to Pakistan, India has significant value in the diaries of Whitehouse. Since the threshold of twenty-first century and China rise which is perceived by the USA as rising threat to its long-headed hegemony and unilateralism, the paradigm shift has been seen in the relations of India and the USA and both states have been turned their previous estrangement into engagement and finally “strategic partnership”. Now, the growing diplomatic and strategic partnership of India at regional and global level further enhance the importance of India in the eyes of the USA. The ongoing statements and usage of soft words of India and Pakistan and their leaders for each other, may come order from the pentagon. In my point of view, it can be the first reason.
Table: India “Global Gloat” approaches: Ploy & Partnership
Secondly, additionally, since 2019 after winning the 2nd time elections and become the prime minister of India, the Modi looms towards Pakistan and particular on Kashmir issue are more offensive in nature. The abrogation of 370 article, surgical strikes intimidations, menace, threats and warning by India to Pakistan, violation of human rights, amendment in Citizen Act in India which seems against Muslims of India, disturb the soft image of India at regional as well as global level. In the context of diplomatic framework, the rising voice of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan for the self-determination right of innocent Kashmiris at global as well as regional level i.e. UNGA, UNSC, SCO, AESEAN, OIC and SAARC further ditch the so-called soft image of India and show-off the real face of India which is real and truly offensive in nature. As the Indian-American incipient Kamala Harris and her in-depth juxtaposition with President Biden, force the Kamala Harris to put pressure on India aim to reconstruct its soft image and soft power at regional and global level because in the documents of American foreign policy priorities and goals and security strategies, India has mush important for the USA and The Modi’s this step of normality and cordiality towards Pakistan can be actual the wish of Kamala Harris to re-build Indian image at regional and global diplomatic forums.
Thirdly, the peace of Southern Asia in interlinked, interconnected and unified with the inter-state relations of India and Pakistan. Any conflict among them can lead them towards a catastrophic nuclear war. So, Biden administration has now more focused on containing China and “Pivot to Asia 1.0”, “Pivot to Asia 2.0” or “Indo-Pacific” strategies, which were introduced by Obama and Trump respectively, India has much importance in this strategies and Biden don’t want any India-Pakistan hostility. Containing China and neutralize the influence of China from South Asia, may the first priority of Biden administration and NSS-2021 under Biden. Alongside, the peaceful Afghanistan is essential for the stability and peace of South Asia and Pakistan and its role is important for it.
Summarily, in the context of epilogue, the courteous, genial, mannerly, obliging, well, blandness backdoor diplomatic constrictive role of the USA aim to settle down the animosity of India and Pakistan is acknowledgeable and appreciated. Besides this, the USA should treat Pakistan and India on equal basis and de-hyphenation of the USA while dealing with India and Pakistan should be checked once. The USA should avoid to put all the balls in the basket of India. In addition, both countries India and Pakistan should heartily welcome each other and try their best to bury the past hate and turned it into Love and Peace which is essential for the health of South Asia.
Rana Danish Nisar The author is a PhD (International Relations) Student at the School of Politics and International Studies (SPIS). He holds Mphil in (International Relations), Masters in (Pakistan Studies), and Masters in (International Relations) degrees. He won acceptance Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations HPAIR (USA), 2017. His research interests are broadly in South Asian Affairs, South Asia Geo-Politics, India-Pakistan Relations, South Asian Nuclear Politics, US and South Asia, Indian Ocean, Security studies, South Asian developments studies.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).