With India general election-2019 drumming at the doorstep, several agencies like ABP- CSDS, Times Group, India Today etc. are conducting pre-poll surveys to comprehend the public opinion about the performance of current NDA and anticipate the outcome of the upcoming poll.
Although, those pre-poll surveys do not always depict a true picture, there are significant proofs that overturn those survey outcomes, but at-least they point out the throbbing and elation areas of the public. However, in a 1.2billion democracy, it is the eligible voters who have to choose their representative for their well being of next five years.
In general, most of the current surveys predict that the BJP-led government may not trounce the Congress and its allies in 2019 Lok Sabha election. BJP alone will lose a significant chunk of its seats (of 2014), making it harder for them to hit the 272-seat magic number and thus must depend on other NDA allies, even some others outside NDA preserve the authority at the Centre. BJP will eventually build the government with lesser number of MPs and it will hinder them to act freely due to the coalition obligation.
A trend has been shown by the ABP-CSDS Mood survey claiming that almost 47% of the Indian voters do not believe that NDA has the merit for a successive term, whereas less than 39% voters thinks the reverse. The ABP survey shows that NDA would acquire 37% votes (38.1% in 2014), UPA will share 31% (23% in 2014) and others will obtain 32% votes in 2019 polls. The survey shows that a strong anti-Modi emotion prevails among the religious minority community- Muslims, Christians, Sikhs etc.
Moreover, despite of Modi government’s liberal activities for the Hindus, a strong bifurcation has been noted; only 44% of the Hindus show pro-government and other 42% exhibit anti-government standpoint. Particularly the ‘Dalits’ and ‘Adivasis’ were too vociferous in their anti- government position at 55% and 43% respectively after being victimized with violence and atrocities in a number of occasions while the government being silent in most of the cases.
There are several reasons for people who have overwhelmingly elected Narendra Modi as their PM have currently become supporter of ‘Anti-Modi Brigade.’ Firstly, Modi has lumbered on execution of demonetisation costing Rs 3 lakh crore in GDP growth and wiped out over 25 lakh jobs, while a hastily implemented GST penalised entrepreneurship. Citizens from the informal sector, including working class, marginal farmers who are heavily dependent on cash for survival, suffered irreparable losses. Similarly, small scale business freshers didn’t take it well as many of them has to shutter down their deals.
Secondly, the government imposed three surreptitious levies as taxes on capital gains while reduced the interest rates on savings to a low of 3.5%. Those steps eroded every avenue of savings for the middle class, especially for the elders whose family survival depends on the banking interest. These steps have seriously offended the senior citizens and a significant amount of middle class.
Thirdly, farmers, who gave their lives for a fairer price for their produce, became victims due to poor government policies- mirage in minimum pay support, relaxation of importing pulses and wheat in low to nil import duties etc. This has caused low farmers’ incomes since they had to slash prices to discover consumer. The entire agitation among farmers against the central government has gone so worse that the country has to see the biggest farmer movement in May-2017 where thousands of farmers walk 500kms barefoot in the hottest season from various parts of Maharashtra to Mumbai.
The most burning issue against the Modi government is the Oil price. While the international crude oil price is on lower side since 2014, the government imposed 200% central excise and production tax on petrol and 400% on diesel to cut down fiscal deficit by Rs.10lakhs crore. Moreover, at present when the crude price has escalated significantly, the government is adamant not to abolish those taxes, thus imposing burden on the public. This exercise has proven bankruptcy of ideas and lack of concern for the people the government is intended to serve and majority of the people are very annoyed with this policy. All those reasons may divert the votes from the BJP as well as from NDA, making it hard for Modi to come back for a second term.
While those being the dark sides of the Modi government, there are several radiating stories behind the curtain for which the government can brag off. The success of GST implementation, despite of tremendous internal pressure and long delay will prove to be most productive in long term. Modi’s indomitable attitude towards Chinese aggression at Doklam and simultaneous political movement for the solution has to be credited. Furthermore, the unanticipated cross border surgical strike on Pakistan after the ‘Uri incident’, where Indian soldiers were brutally killed by Pakistan-fed terrorists is also commendable, in terms of National Security. Despite of significant drop in the GDP after demonetization, the government is successful to lift it up to over 7.7%, greater than China in the last quarter which signifies the effects of economic reformations.
Modi government has shown impressive fiscal conservatism, overlooking the enticement of boosting the expansion via pump-priming. Significant industrial growth has been observed in his tenure after an intermittent dip. This is due to the relaxation of FDI, enhancing the open market policy and Make in India initiative. The ease of doing business in India has become inspiring with India ranking upliftment from 134the position to 100th position from 2014 to 2018, according to the World Bank. These will tempt the Indian public to vote for Modi in 2019 election because they know that despite of current distress, the Modi government is working for a better and strong future for them and their kids.
So it is too early to conclude that the nation’s has faced a mood swing and the Modi wave has subsided. In dealing with international and several national issues, Modi’s charisma still matters to the country’s electorate. But the truth is BJP will be facing a strong confrontation in 2019 if a united opposition in the form of ‘Grand Alliance’ is formed. It is dubious to overcome the challenge with promises of “good days” made by the BJP during its 2014 election campaign. Rather, they must showcase their successes much vividly in front of the public and must rely on the prudence of the people about the poor experience of an allied government formed during 1996-1999 when two successive general elections were held to solve the litigation.
Image Credit: Flickr/Modi