By Denis Korkodinov
Ansar Allah (Hussites) movement in northern Yemen is reinforced by the capture of the city of Aden by the forces of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). After the retreat of the armed forces of the United Arab Emirates from the actual capital of Yemen, disagreements between the opponents of the Hussites may worsen, due to which their main focus will be directed at each other, while the Hussites will not be afraid of serious resistance from the South.
On August 10, 2019, as a result of a full-scale offensive, the Southern Transitional Council managed to fully ensure control over the city of Aden. The offensive began after Brigadier General Munir al-Yafai, Commander of the Supporting Forces of the Government of Yemen, commander of the Government of the Army of Yemen, on August 7, 2019, South Vice President Sheikh Hani bin Brik publicly called for an immediate start of the military operation. Among other things, in his address the leader of the southerners criticized the Islamist party “Al Islah”, which, in his opinion, contributed to the attack of the Hussites. After 4 days of hostilities, Riyadh agreed to mediate a ceasefire agreement between the Yemeni “government in exile” under the auspices of Mansour Hadi and the Southern Transitional Council.
The victory of the southerners was facilitated by several interrelated factors. First of all, the rearrangement of the strike forces of the United Arab Emirates to the borders of northern Yemen, carried out in the summer of 2019, was perceived in the South as a signal for the beginning of an armed uprising. In addition, the conflict with the Al Islah party, which stands for a united Yemen, significantly reduced the level of citizens’ confidence in the Southern Transitional Council, which increased the risk of a complete loss of power. For this reason, the South needed to rally the electorate through a series of military victories and, thereby, demonstrate to the international community the ability to independently manage the region. For this, it was necessary to capture Aden, which is the second capital of Yemen after Sana’a.
However, the conflict between the Southern Transitional Council and the political party Al Islah has not exhausted itself. Islamists criticized the “southern government”, demanding that he carry out constitutional reform and increase the presence of the southern opposition in the government. In this party, Al Islah was supported by the leaders of the Al-Hirak al-Jubniyya movement, who were ready to offer armed resistance to the Southern Transitional Council. Among other things, the Al-Hizama brigades concentrated in Aden, Abyan and Lahij, as well as influential tribes in Shabwa and Hadramaut, intend to join the opposition movement created in this way, in the South.
The Ansar Allah (Hussites) movement, represented mainly in the north of Yemen, quickly turned into a secondary threat for the South, since the main attention was focused on clarifying relations among themselves. This allows the Hussites to use the situation to strengthen their positions in the northern regions and begin preparations for spreading influence to the territories occupied by the Southern Transitional Council, including the city of Aden.
In turn, the likely offensive of the “National Resistance Force”, supported by the UAE, under the command of Tarik Saleh in order to help the South, makes it easier for the Hussites to gain control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The fact is that, in the event of a large-scale military operation, units of Tarik Saleh will be forced to leave their permanent locations off the coast of the Red Sea and move deeper into the southern regions. Thus, the movement along the strait of Bab el-Mandeb will be virtually unhindered. This scenario is not only sought by the Hussites, but also Iran, which, under the restrictions of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, is interested in providing alternative routes for oil through the Bab al-Mandeb.
On this basis, the Ansar Allah movement and Tehran will pit the various groups of South Yemen against each other and seek to regroup the forces of the international coalition away from the coast in order to significantly strengthen their positions.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)