By Tazeen Javed
Pakistan’s strategic alignments in the ongoing power struggle between China and the United States are emblematic of its complex geopolitical positioning.
As a South Asian country bordered by both India and China, and a longstanding ally of the United States, Pakistan finds itself at the intersection of divergent global priorities. This balancing act is deeply influenced by its historical alliances, economic dependencies, and evolving security concerns.
The implications for Pakistan’s foreign policy are profound, forcing Islamabad to adapt to the shifting contours of global power dynamics while safeguarding its sovereignty and national interests.
Historically, Pakistan’s foreign policy has been rooted in strategic alliances, particularly with the United States. During the Cold War, Pakistan aligned itself with the U.S.-led Western bloc, receiving significant economic and military aid in exchange for supporting U.S. policies in the region. This partnership was further solidified during the Afghan war in the 1980s, where Pakistan played a pivotal role as a frontline state against Soviet aggression.
However, in recent years, the trajectory of this relationship has shifted. The United States’ pivot to India, its growing concerns over Pakistan’s ties with militant groups, and the waning strategic importance of Pakistan in the U.S. ‘s broader global calculus have strained this alliance. In response, Pakistan has increasingly turned toward China, a move that has been driven as much by necessity as by choice.
China, for its part, has embraced Pakistan as a crucial partner in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)$62 billion investment , a flagship project of the BRI, exemplifies this partnership, promising billions of dollars in infrastructure investment and economic development.
Through CPEC, China aims to secure critical trade routes and access to the Arabian Sea, enhancing its global trade network while simultaneously counterbalancing U.S. influence in the region. For Pakistan, this partnership has provided a much-needed economic lifeline, helping to address its chronic energy shortages and underdeveloped infrastructure.
However, it has also raised concerns about Pakistan’s growing economic dependency on China, as well as the potential for a neo-colonial dynamic where Beijing holds disproportionate sway over Islamabad’s policies. A steady growth from $14.5 billion in 2018 to $20.5 billion in 2023, reflecting China’s strong economic partnership with Pakistan through initiatives like CPEC
The U.S.-China rivalry places Pakistan in a precarious position. As the United States seeks to counter China’s rise, it has strengthened its strategic ties with India, Pakistan’s arch-rival. This has created a triangular dynamic in which Pakistan must carefully navigate its relationships with both superpowers while managing its own security concerns vis-à-vis India.
The U.S.’s growing military and economic support for India, combined with China’s backing of Pakistan on contentious issues such as Kashmir, underscores the deeply intertwined nature of these rivalries. This alignment has forced Pakistan to adopt a more pragmatic and nuanced foreign policy, seeking to leverage its strategic geography to maximize benefits from both powers while avoiding overt entanglement in their broader conflicts.
Pakistan’s balancing act is further complicated by its internal challenges. Economic instability, political volatility, and the persistent threat of terrorism have limited its ability to project a coherent foreign policy. Additionally, the competing interests within Pakistan’s civil and military establishments have often led to divergent approaches to international relations.
While the civilian leadership may prioritize economic development and diplomatic engagement, the military, which wields significant influence over foreign policy, often emphasizes security concerns and strategic alignments. This duality has sometimes resulted in inconsistencies in Pakistan’s approach to its international partnerships.
The implications of these dynamics for Pakistan’s foreign policy are manifold. On one hand, its alignment with China has strengthened its position vis-à-vis India, providing crucial diplomatic and military support. On the other hand, it risks alienating the United States and its allies, which could have significant economic and geopolitical consequences. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and the subsequent rise of the Taliban have further complicated this equation, as Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan’s future stability remains a contentious issue in its relations with Washington.
Moreover, Pakistan’s reliance on China has not come without its costs. The growing debt burden associated with CPEC projects has raised concerns about the sustainability of this partnership. Critics argue that Pakistan risks falling into a “debt trap,” where its sovereignty could be compromised by its inability to repay Chinese loans. Additionally, the environmental and social impacts of CPEC projects have sparked domestic opposition, adding another layer of complexity to Pakistan’s foreign policy calculations.
In this context, Pakistan’s foreign policy must strike a delicate balance. It must maintain its strategic partnership with China while avoiding excessive dependency, seek to repair and strengthen its ties with the United States, and address the broader implications of the U.S.-China rivalry for regional stability. This requires a multifaceted approach that prioritizes economic resilience, diplomatic engagement, and strategic autonomy. Pakistan must also work to diversify its international partnerships, engaging with other regional and global powers such as Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf states to mitigate the risks associated with overreliance on any single partner.
Ultimately, Pakistan’s ability to navigate the power struggle between China and the United States will depend on its capacity to adapt to an increasingly complex and multipolar world order. This requires not only strategic foresight and effective diplomacy but also a concerted effort to address its internal challenges and build a more stable and prosperous foundation for its foreign policy. By doing so, Pakistan can position itself as a key player in the evolving global landscape, leveraging its unique geography and historical ties to shape a foreign policy that serves its long-term interests. Beside the US China rivalry Pakistan should find ways and develop policies to sustain and enhance profitable relationships with both superpowers.
Over-reliance on China presents a multifaceted set of risks for Pakistan, stemming from economic, strategic, and political dimensions. While China’s investments, especially through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have provided much-needed economic lifelines and infrastructural improvements, this partnership carries significant vulnerabilities that could undermine Pakistan’s long-term sovereignty and stability. A major risk is the growing debt burden associated with CPEC projects. Pakistan owes a substantial portion of its external debt to Chinese financial institutions, raising fears of a “debt trap,” where repayment challenges could force Pakistan to cede critical assets or strategic concessions, as seen in other nations like Sri Lanka.
Over-alignment with China could alienate Pakistan from other significant global powers, particularly the United States and its allies. This may limit Pakistan’s access to diversified economic partnerships and international aid, further increasing its dependency on China. Strategic Imbalance: Relying too heavily on China could disrupt Pakistan’s efforts to maintain a balanced foreign policy, complicating relationships with neighboring countries and other global players, particularly in a multipolar world.
Conclusion
While maintaining its strategic partnership with China, Pakistan should rebuild trust and cooperation with the U.S., focusing on areas like trade, technology, education, and climate resilience. This balanced approach can enable Pakistan to benefit from both powers without becoming overly reliant on either.
Pakistan should seek to establish and strengthen economic ties with other global and regional players, including Russia, Turkey, the European Union, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Expanding trade and investment avenues will reduce dependency on a single partner, such as China, and provide resilience against geopolitical shifts. Pakistan must prioritize comprehensive economic reforms, including reducing fiscal deficits, improving tax collection, and enhancing the ease of doing business.
A stable and self-reliant economy would enable Pakistan to engage in foreign partnerships from a position of strength rather than dependency. Pakistan should actively participate in multilateral organizations like the United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to ensure a diversified foreign policy. These platforms can also facilitate conflict resolution and economic cooperation.
To avoid being drawn into the U.S.-China rivalry, Pakistan must pursue strategic autonomy, adopting policies that align with its national interests rather than external pressures. This includes balancing its defense and foreign relations while maintaining neutrality in superpower rivalries. Building robust institutions capable of managing foreign relations, trade negotiations, and economic planning will ensure a cohesive and long-term foreign policy that aligns with Pakistan’s strategic interests.
Author: Tazeen Javed – Student of MS-Public Policy, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan.