By Nikola Mikovic
Thousands of desperate migrants from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and other Middle Eastern countries keep arriving in Belarus, hoping to find a way to reach the European Union. They remain stuck in the former Soviet republic while tensions between Minsk and Brussels continue to grow.
There are no indications that the migrant crisis could be over any time soon. Dozens of planes full of refugees continue to land at Minsk International Airport. The EU accuses Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of deliberately orchestrating the crisis in order to “attack Europe”. Indeed, back in May, after Brussels imposed sanctions on Minsk, following the arrest of a prominent dissident Roman Protasevich, the Belarusian leader openly threatened to allow drugs, radioactive material and illegal migrants to flow into the EU unhindered. He kept his promise and he is now using migrants as a tool against Brussels, or more precisely against eastern EU members such as Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. In other words, he is successfully responding to Western sanctions.
Migrants, for their part, do not intend to stay in any of those countries. They see Poland, as well as Baltic states, merely as a transit route to rich EU members – Germany, France, Netherlands. Warsaw, however, seems determined to prevent the influx of migrants into the EU. Polish authorities have deployed thousands of troops along the Belarusian border and have raised barbed wires. For now, the measure has managed to keep the migrants in Belarus, although many of them are looking for alternative routes to get to their final destinations. That is why neighboring Lithuania and Latvia started building more barriers on the border with Belarus.
Once all three EU members complete construction of the barbed wire, or even a wall that will prevent refugees from illegally crossing the border, migrants will undoubtedly remain stuck in Belarus. Hypothetically, they could move southward trying to reach Ukraine and then attempt to enter Poland, Slovakia or even Hungary. Ukrainian authorities are quite aware that such a scenario is realistic, and that is why its authorities decided to double the number of border guards on its frontier with Belarus.
There are also fears that some migrants could go eastward, to Russia, given that the border between Belarus and the Russian Federation practically does not exist, as a result of the agreement on creation of Russia – Belarus Union State. Still, such an option does not seem very probable given the Kremlin would unlikely allow Lukashenko to redirect the migrants to Russia. Moreover, the West accuses Moscow of being the mastermind of the entire operation, claiming that Russia, through its ally Belarus, is using the migrants as an instrument to destabilize the EU.
The European Union considers imposing additional sanctions not only on Minsk, but also on Moscow. European leaders reportedly discuss restrictive measures against Russian state-owned Aeroflot airline for its alleged participation in the creation of the migrant crisis at the EU border. Russia denies the accusation, but in case sanctions are really imposed, the Kremlin could respond by banning the passage of Western airlines over Russian territory. Lukashenko, for his part, has already announced that he could shut down the transit of natural gas to Europe via Belarus. Such a move, however, is impossible without the Kremlin’s direct approval, given that the section of the Yamal–Europe pipeline passing through Belarus is owned by Russia’s energy giant Gazprom.
Russia has already drastically limited gas supplies to Europe, and if Lukashenko implements such a radical measure, the continent will face not only migrants, but an energy crisis as well. In order to avoid such a scenario, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that the European Union could provide financial assistance to Belarus in order to encourage it to stop migrants from crossing into the bloc. The Russian top diplomat recalled that when refugees were reaching Europe from Turkey in 2015, Brussels allocated funds to keep them in Turkey.
“Why cannot they help Belarus like this”, Lavrov asked.
Unlike Turkey, Belarus is not a NATO member. It is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. From the Western perspective, funding a Russian ally would be interpreted as a sign of weakness. That is why it is very improbable that the EU will back down. The Kremlin, on the other hand, has already started flexing its muscles by sending bombers to patrol Belarusian airspace. The EU leaders are quite aware that Moscow is bluffing, since it is extremely unlikely that Russia will launch a war against NATO member Poland. Warsaw, for its part, does not seem willing to attack Belarus, but is firmly focused on protecting its own border from the migrant influx. Still, both Belarus and Poland carefully try to avoid any major incidents.
One thing is for sure: the migrants are being used as pawns in a geopolitical game between Russia’s ally Belarus, and eastern EU and NATO members. Their fate heavily depends on wider deals between Moscow and the West. Although Lukashenko acts as a solo player, his room for political maneuvers is rather limited. Belarus’ financial and energy dependence on Russia does not allow him to take any radical steps against the European Union.
“I am not insane. I know perfectly well what this can bring about. We are well aware and we know our place”, Lukashenko stressed.
Thus, Belarusian leader is expected to keep coordinating his actions with the Kremlin, although he will certainly tend to preserve a significant degree of autonomy. Recent discussions between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the migrant crisis clearly suggest that Moscow and the West will soon try to find common ground over the matter.
Author: Nikola Mikovic (Journalist, researcher and analyst based in Serbia. He covers mostly the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine)
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: Polish Defence Ministry via Reuters (Hundreds of migrants try to cross from the Belarus side of the border with Poland, near Kuznica Bialostocka, Poland, on November 8, 2021)