World Geostrategic Insights interview with Fatima Roumate on the main opportunities, challenges, and concerns related to the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in international relations and global governance, as well as the malicious uses of AI and the impact of AI in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Fatima Roumate Ph.D. is a Full Professor of International Law at the Faculty of Law, Economic and Social Sciences Agdal, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco. Founding President of the International Institute of Scientific Research, Marrakech since 2010. She is a Member of the Ad Hoc Expert Group for the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence UNESCO, Morocco, and of the Information Ethics Working Group IFAP, UNESCO since 2020.
Q1 – Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly becoming part of our daily lives, thus inevitably influencing diplomacy and the international agenda as well, questioning geostrategic relations and serving as a support tool and argument for diplomats and negotiators. In your opinion, how can existing applications and foreseeable future developments of AI affect the conduct of diplomacy and, in a broader context, international relations and global governance? What are the main opportunities, challenges, and concerns on the issue?
A1 – In this twenty-first century, artificial intelligence (AI) is changing the world and its impact on international society is unlimited. It is influencing international society and imposing new challenges on international actors (states, international organizations, NGOs, and transnational corporations). Nowadays, AI offers new opportunities for international and bilateral cooperation and facilitates the inclusion of all actors within global governance. However, the malicious use of AI represents a threat to international security. This means that the governments as principal actors in international society are forced to rethink their public policies, legislations, and international cooperation, considering the new challenges linked to the malicious use of AI in several domains, especially in international psychological security. A new international order is in progress considering the rise of new technological and economic forces which means the emergence of new players and new rules of international relations.
For AI challenges, we have two types. The first type is related to the dual use of AI which means that AI is used for civil and military goals. AI is sometimes used as such a weapon for example cybersecurity.
The second type is legal challenges considering that the AI era is a new phase in the development of international law which becomes heavily traditional. AI influences all international law branches such as international economic law and international health law, but also international humanitarian law and international law of human rights. In a sense, we have some good international mechanisms, the first one is the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime adopted by the Council of Europe and even if adherence to this convention is open to all countries it remains a regional mechanism. The second international mechanism is the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement which covers some of these advanced technologies such as autonomous vehicles. However, it’s limited to industry and trade and it needs to be updated to current and future trends of AI. The third international mechanism is the recommendation on the ethics of AI adopted by UNESCO in 2021. It offers solutions and policy actions to several topics related to AI challenges but it’s not a banned instrument. The UN CCW also focuses on certain military applications of AI, especially Lethal Autonomous Weapons.
In general, the CCW is charged with “banning or restricting the use of specific types of weapons that are considered to cause unnecessary or unjustifiable suffering to combatants or civilian populations” (The Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, 2001). Nevertheless, diplomacy did not succeed so far in making new mechanisms to reduce the malicious use of AI and to guarantee international security. Several international institutions such as the Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and the Group of Seven (G7) examined this issue. Though, the focus must remain on humans to assess the type and degree of human control required in the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons to ensure compliance with international law and international humanitarian law. Various operational restrictions are needed, including tasks, types of targets, the operating environment, the time frame of operation, and the scope of movement to ensure legal compliance such as predictability; human supervision, etc.
Q2 – What are the main malicious uses of artificial intelligence? Which threats do they pose to international security? How do they have implications for diplomacy? What countering actions are needed? Can digital diplomacy be a strategic tool to thwart hybrid warfare, cybersecurity threats, and fake news?
A2 – Fake news, fake speeches, deep voices, and other malicious uses of AI were invested to create political changes in Arab countries in 2011. Youth activists were thinking that they were protesting for democracy, social justice, and human rights, not used by a third party to change the political system in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia. Governments invest in the malicious use of AI for surveillance and defense. Other states and nonstate actors are using AI to create or support social movements aimed at specific political changes. In systems that combine data from satellite imagery, facial recognition-powered cameras, and cell phone location information, among other things, AI can provide a detailed picture of individuals’ movements as well as predict future movement and location.
In a sense, MUAI generates instability with the rise of populist nationalist movements around the world, considering the human rights revolution facilitated by powerful tools. MUAI could be used to guide international public opinion when it comes to some global issues of foreign affairs, for example, propaganda and disinformation concerning the war in Ukraine. Some powerful images were discussed in the UN Security Council such as the photo of Aylan’s drowned body, face-down on the beach considering its impact during the political crisis in Syria. The massive interconnection between all actors in international relations imposes updated diplomatic tools especially, with the appearance of digital diplomacy. This led us to two levels:
– Artificial intelligence is a new powerful tool that can be invested in diplomacy.
– The importance of diplomacy in the creation of new opportunities and enhancing innovation and creativity in artificial intelligence.
The AI era is a new step in the history of international society characterized by the growing e-economy based on the new oil which is big data. However, this new oil imposes a new challenge which is trustworthy information. In a sense, how can diplomats and policymakers make decisions based on data when it is not reliable? How can all actors have access to the right data? Considering trends in AI, can diplomats be replaced by robots? What will be the future of international security when a decision will be made by a robot?
In a sense, it is essential to rethink the diplomatic mission, which should focus on technological sovereignty. The principal goal of the competition between China and the USA is racing toward technological sovereignty linked to new types of sovereignty such as data sovereignty and innovation sovereignty.
Artificial intelligence offers new opportunities to achieve national interests but also it imposes a lot of challenges linked to digital diplomacy. In general, this new form of diplomacy prepares the environment in which diplomats operate because of easy access to big data. Digital diplomacy facilitates the definition of common issues and common interests and it brings a new topic to the negotiation and policy-making table. Artificial intelligence makes diplomacy more efficient and effective because it helps to create a bridge with other actors, academia, the private sector, civil society, and individuals.
If the economy was the most important priority of the bilateral relations between countries, it’s now inconceivable without digital diplomacy which depends on data. In a sense, countries need to rethink the priorities contained in their partnership. They should give more importance to cooperation in technology, science, and research. Cooperation in agriculture, industry, tourism, and culture is important but all these sectors are conditioned by technology. With innovation in Artificial intelligence, cooperation in this field is a sine qua non-condition to all countries, because innovations in this field are changing economies. Diplomacy should focus more on the key priority which is an international strategy on the ethics of AI which is the only way to face all AI challenges to ensure the global governance of AI for all.
Q3 – The use of artificial intelligence in warfare is controversial, but there is no denying that it is advancing. Machine learning, Clearview AI’s facial recognition technology, algorithms, and other AI tools are being deployed in the conflict in Ukraine. The U.S. Pentagon is utilizing AI tools to analyze large amounts of data, generate useful battlefield intelligence, and learn about Russian tactics and strategies. What is your opinion on the role and impact of artificial intelligence in the Russia-Ukraine war?
A3 – Malicious use of AI in Ukraine is a new “Westphalian system”, which means a new definition of peace and security after World War III, considering all countries who contributed directly or indirectly to this war and its consequences on the nation’s game and the future of international relations. No matter who will be the winner or the loser in this war, the most important is that this is a new step in the history of international relations with current and future challenges. AI is a key to understanding the international game. In a sense, current and future challenges imposed by AI require new International, regional and national strategies, an updating of international law, and a rethinking of international institutions, considering the consequences of the new world order based on the new balance of power.
The war in Ukraine is characterized by the use of new weapons and new faces of war with new players, especially with the decline of U.S. global leadership and the emergence of new powerful actors. Even « traditional» weapons used in Ukraine are based on AI considering that new defense strategies released by powerful States are based on the adoption of new approaches such as the coordination between the military, academia, and business. In this context, American Army launched the Mad Scientist Initiative under the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), which focused on military operational innovation based on AI. The weaponization of AI is illustrated throughout, Lethal Autonomous Robots, Genetic engineering, and a Laser weapon. Some countries are coming closer to producing fully autonomous weapons. The challenge here is to choose between making an end to scientific research in this field or the end of humanity. The weaponization of AI in the war between Russia and Ukraine is doubling threats at all levels, psychological warfare, cybersecurity, biological warfare, and economic and financial war.
In Ukraine, war is hybrid and it swings between online and offline, starting with fake news and cyber attacks to the use of drones and other new and sophisticated weapons based on AI.
Big powers are racing for high-tech weapons which explains these new types of war in the age of Artificial intelligence and COVID 19 as we observe in the war between Russia and Ukraine. This war could escalate to the use of nuclear or biological weapons considering that Russia claims that NATO and Ukraine are developing such weapons. In a sense, considering the international debate about the first use of nuclear weapons and the use of AI in all types of war, the international society should make the most important choice in the history of international relations which is the end of this war instead of the end of humanity. International society should return to the real meaning of the balance of power which swings between geostrategic interest and technological sovereignty in the new world order.
Fatima Roumate – President of IIRS, International Institute for Scientific Research, member of the UNESCO Ad Hoc Expert Group on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and Full Professor of International Law at Mohammed V Agdal University in Rabat, Morocco. She received the Award titled “Iconic Leaders Creating a Better World for All” at the Women Economic Forum 2017. She is a member of several scientific board committees of indexed journals and she published several books and indexed articles in Arabic, French, and English. She is the editor of the book Artificial Intelligence and Digital Diplomacy.
