Scenari Geopolitici Globali. Fra nuovo ordine del pianeta e intelligenza artificiale (Global Geopolitical Scenarios. Between New Planetary Order and Artificial Intelligence) is the title of the latest essay by Prof. Giancarlo Elia Valori, published by Rubbettino, and also of the book presentation conference, organized by the Foundation for International and Geopolitical Studies, on June 12 in Rome, at the Temple Hall of Vibia Sabina and Hadrian, seat of the Rome Chamber of Commerce.
In addition to Prof. Giancarlo Elia Valori, Honorable de l’Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France and Honorary Professor at the Peking University, speakers at the conference were Oliviero Diliberto, Dean of the Faculty of Law at Rome’s “La Sapienza” University and former Minister of Justice; Lamberto Dini, former Prime Minister and former Minister of Foreign Affairs; Gen. Nicolò Pollari, State Councillor, former Director of the Military Intelligence and Security Service (SISMI); Umberto Vattani, former Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and Lorenzo Tagliavanti, President of the Rome Chamber of Commerce.
We summarize below the main concepts expressed by the speakers.
The Great World Disorder
Oliviero Diliberto
We have not yet overcome the disorder caused by the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the end of bipolarism, which, though with all its limitations, ensured a balance that prevented open global conflict.
Today we live in a disorder that is characterized not only by the two ongoing wars, Ukraine and Gaza, but precisely by absolute instability, by an insecurity that has never been greater. All this added to a very serious crisis in the formation of the ruling classes of the West at all levels, just think of the United States of America, whose influence, even in the most troubled territories, such as Gaza, is objectively minimized. This situation of disorder is also caused by the fact that all current international institutions derive from Cold War balances, and the decision-making mechanisms of the end of World War II. Nations objectively exercise a very marginal role. Trade conflicts, the latest of which was the U.S. tariff on Chinese cars, go through decision-making mechanisms that have nothing to do with the WTO, with a total hollowing out of international institutions, while Europe’s role remains irrelevant.
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union produced two opposing doctrinal interpretations in the United States of America: one is the optimistic one of Francis Fukuyama who spoke of the end of history and ideologies. The other, much less optimistic, is that of Samuel Huntington who predicted that the end of ideology would create a transformation of conflicts from ideological to conflicts of religion, civilization and identity. Exactly what happened, confirming that Fukuyama’s prediction was in fact fallacious.
Mao, the great president of a great country, said that “great is the disorder under the sky, so the situation is excellent.” In my opinion, President Mao did not like disorder at all, far from it, but he emphasized the circumstance that out of that disorder a new China could be born. Today we are in full disorder, but the situation is far from excellent.
The Need to Move from Rivalry and Strategic Competition to Peaceful Coexistence and Cooperation
Lamberto Dini
The invasion of Ukraine was, in my opinion, the biggest mistake Putin made, and Russia is paying the price. However, the question remains whether the conflict could have been avoided. It should be remembered that before February 22, 2022, after amassing an army on the border with Ukraine, Putin asked the United States for two things: that Ukraine remain neutral, declaring that it would never join NATO, and a new security pact in Europe. The United States responded that Ukraine in NATO was not on the agenda and that Russia’s proposals were inadmissible. But they never explained why they were inadmissible. The outcome of the war will tell us whether Russia will have prevented Ukraine’s entry into NATO, which it considers a primary and indispensable goal for its national security.
In the chapter Planet China, the book’s author, Guancarlo Elia Valori, traces the country’s socio-political evolution from the 1911 revolution to modernization. The author, a great connoisseur of the country, provides an excellent key to understanding today’s China, explaining how this country has been able to combine Marxism with an autocratic and authoritarian government, while achieving decades of extraordinary growth and becoming the world’s second-largest economic power.
China’s call for a new, more shared world order. A request shared by the countries of the Brics group, i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and others that have joined, whose national product now exceeds that of the G7, i.e., the seven most industrialized countries in the world.
The United States is forced to face, for the first time in its history, not only a geopolitical competitor, China, of comparable economic size to its own, but also an “alliance of countries challenging U.S. dominance in international affairs.”
Are sanctions and protectionist measures the right way to curb China’s growth and influence in the world and for the U.S. to maintain strategic primacy and superiority in wealth and scientific and technological innovation? In fact, today the United States violates the principles of free trade of competition and the international system based on shared rules, that is, the system they themselves propagated in the world after World War II. They do this by invoking reasons of national security, and defense of the free world. However, this will produce negative consequences. In an article in the Financial Times, noted analyst Martin Wolf writes that, under pressure from the United States, the world is becoming protectionist as it was in the 1930s, and I think it is safe to say that tariffs have rarely been the best tool to use.
Picking up on the thoughts of Henry Kissinger, a friend of the author, I would like to emphasize Giancarlo Elia Valori’s hope that China and the United States will have the ability to combine the inevitable rivalry and strategic competition with a concept of peaceful coexistence and cooperation in which world peace becomes the primary goal for the benefit of all.
The Yearning for Peace
Nicolò Pollari
Talking about global geopolitical scenarios, new planetary arrangements and intelligence, the first question that arises is how do you deal with such a topic by bringing it back to unity, finding a logical line that ties them together.
I would like to make a few points. First, the content of the book fully accounts for the content that the title expresses. It certainly is because undoubtedly the work of this encyclopedic work by Giancarlo Elia Valori ranges from interpreting the geopolitical events of our time to contributions on the latest scientific and technological innovations in artificial intelligence. Moreover, of particular relevance are the accounts of his lived experience, of his experiential data carriers, which essentially constitute the cultural support of the descriptive path.
The work can be understood by grasping the very subtle and profound intellectual provocation that the author ends up forcefully expressing. The political-economic events of the moment, accompanied by the advent of new technologies, have placed humanity at an epochal crossroads: either humanity will have the ability the intelligence and moral strength to set aside old and new political-cultural stereotypes, and will be able to adopt the right choices, or, if this does not happen, humanity will be doomed to the risk of wars, including nuclear wars, and thus to the risk of extinction. In conclusion, the basic idea that seems to me to shine through clearly from reading this volume is that it is necessary to build a new system of world balance that can remedy the dangerous situation in which we find ourselves. To look to the future from a perspective of peace, common good and sharing.
What Professor Values sends out is a message of longing toward the pursuit of peace among people and the universal affirmation of the common good, regardless of latitude. In short, an invitation to sit around a table and reason and share in order to redesign the safest and fairest path to achieve new balances of peace and coexistence among the peoples of planet Earth.
Certainly there is a traditional classical model of Western democracy, which is the one we are all familiar with. But there is also another one, which is not a Western model. So is it smart to disregard that, seeking the path of conflict? Much better is to reason keeping in mind that there is room for everyone in the world, seeking an agreement, a balance, avoiding hierarchies between civilizations, between forms of democracy.
The Need of a Lateral Thinking
Umberto Vattani
The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 seemed to bring democracy to the whole world; in reality, in less than 25 years, the confusion that followed has led to increased tensions, to a new cold war. A situation that must be approached with lateral thinking, somehow outside sequential logic. What is preventing us from finding a solution to the war between Russia and Ukraine? The approach to the problem with a Cartesian logic, according to which there are those who are right and those who are wrong, those who did right and those who did wrong. Well, with this logic and this traditional approach we do not get very far, because we look for the solution to the problem right at the heart of the problem, when instead we should need a lateral thinking, capable of resolving issues by looking at them from multiple angles, without ideological bias or prejudice.
Giancarlo Elia Valori’s book, with its many ideas, insights and discoveries, and its excellent construction of a system of transversal international relations, aimed to bring opposing ideas and visions together, reveals his correct way of looking at the world, oblique to the purely Cartesian model.
The Fear that Leads to Paralysis
Lorenzo Tagliavanti
We often talk about the future, but with a very negative fear feeling. Perhaps this is because many things are moving very fast and at the same time are putting people in trouble.
Companies don’t know the results of their investments, the prospect of their markets, families get into difficulty in their relationship with their children, thinking about school, geopolitics, and war. We have such illusions that we are the first generation without wars. But is that really the case? The problem is how to overcome this fear, which has a great flaw: it leads to paralysis. So we have to respond to this feeling with rationality, by studying complex issues in depth, trying to understand and investigate all the theories. No one can claim to have understood the world, so we have to listen to more voices and have more elements to be able to act, and Professor Elia Valori’s book is exactly what we need at this time to delve into these issues, to reflect and to guide our actions.
The Need of a Bridge that Connects Human and Artificial Intelligence
Giancarlo Elia Valori
In my opinion, artificial intelligence is not a method of delegating some boring tasks to robots in a reductive sense. Rather, artificial intelligence is a very serious issue with major consequences, which could even lead to the extinction of humanity if we are unable to control it. I wonder what it will be like tomorrow in relationships among living beings, especially because of the fundamental possibility that artificial intelligence will be able to program itself, that is, to improve itself. But if we create beings that are smarter than we are, how can we keep them under control?
AI should never transgress the three laws of robotics: A robot may not harm a human being nor may it allow a human being to receive harm as a result of its failure to do so; A robot must obey orders given by humans, as long as those orders do not conflict with the First Law; A robot must protect its own existence, as long as safeguarding it does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
We need to build a bridge, a link that connects human and artificial intelligence, so that we can build a better world for all of us, and not a world in which humans will be at the service of beings with artificial intelligence. And here I would like to address the sensitive question: is a robot alive? It is both a being and a superimposed being. We observe that all inorganic matter is not life, just like artificial intelligence, but artificial intelligence responds to stimuli, thinks and makes decisions.
Artificial intelligence, newly born, is among us, it is alive and is not confined to some remote laboratory in an American desert or a Russian steppe. Some might argue that artificial intelligence thinks because it is programmed to do so, but all of us are also programmed to think. Everyone’s DNA dictates our thoughts, our emotions, our health and even our character. Our personality changes throughout our lives. Some might wonder if artificial intelligence has a soul. No, a soul has never been found in the code of artificial intelligence. But we have never found it in human DNA either.
