By Sumaira Manzoor
Trump did with Zelensky what the United States usually does to its “subordinate allies”: first use and then discard. After pushing Ukraine into a three-year war, the U.S. is now making a deal with its adversary, and even demanding that Ukraine repay the money.
Now, the weeping and wailing of liberals, or left-leaning liberals, can be ignored, because the illusory Western-aligned world they trusted has reached its logical conclusion. Rather, the question now is what kind of order will emerge next, and what strategies progressive forces might formulate. In this regard, I would like to outline eight fundamental points:
1 – The Decline of the U.S.-Europe Security Alliance
The U.S.-European security alliance NATO was established in 1945 to counter the “threat” of the Soviet Union and the relative fear of the communist movement. But even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, this alliance has strived to expand its influence with the inclusion of several Eastern European countries to tighten the noose around Russia. Now, this alliance may be on its last legs, because the current U.S Administration has prioritized the improving of relations with Russia, rejecting the European narrative. For the first time in 80 years, Europe may be required to take responsibility for its own security.
2 – Economic Crisis and Rising Tensions in Europe
The 2008 financial crisis, rising unemployment and inflation have already fueled widespread anger in Europe. A heavier burden for the European defense will now fall on the European ruling classes, who will have to impose more taxes and increase public debt. As a result, internal contradictions will be exacerbated and political instability in European societies will increase, with a likely eruption of a new class struggle.
3 – The Rise of Nationalism in Europe
The decline of pro-American liberal forces in Europe will accelerate as they have lost their guiding star. On the contrary, nationalism will increase in all European countries, led by forces targeting immigrants, with the support of the Trump administration, particularly Elon Musk.
4 – The Emergence of a Nationalist Left
For the first time in a long time, a nationalist left is emerging in Europe, and this is a welcomed development. From the 1930s to the 1950s, leftist organizations represented their peoples against America and multinational corporations. However, in recent decades, a specific group of intellectuals has predominated within the left that has limited itself to supporting institutions such as the European Union. Recently, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a prominent leader of the French left, declared that France will not allow Europe to become an American colony. This is the first time since the 1950s that a prominent European leftist has made such a statement against the United States, indicating that reactionary nationalism can be countered by progressive nationalism.
5 – America’s Real Target: China
America’s real target is not Russia, Europe or the Middle East, but China, against which it is aligning forces. Trump intends to strike a deal with Russia to shift military resources to Asia and contain China. At the same time, efforts will be made to engage Russia in an alliance against China. But it will not be easy for Russia to trust America. In addition, the Russian economy is heavily dependent on China. It is also possible that several European countries, after souring relations with the United States, will initiate improved ties with China and Russia, further complicating the global landscape. Let us recall that the war in Ukraine has caused significant economic damage to Europe because of its dependence on Russian gas.
6 – The Shift of War to Asia
The U.S. will now shift the conflict to Asia, encircling China through India, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand and other allies. The money, wasted on Ukraine, will now be spent in these countries to curb China’s rise. In our region, America will deal not only with countries but also with various religious and ethnic groups separately, as seen in the agreement with the Taliban in Doha. From Korea to Vietnam, from Yugoslavia to Syria, wherever America has gone, it has turned internal contradictions into chaos. In Syria, for example, America has not been concerned about democracy or dictatorship, but has used Kurdish, Sunni Arab, Shiite and other identity conflicts to establish a permanent military base, leaving only destruction for the Syrian people.
7 – The Need for Local “Subordinate Allies”
To carry out its strategy, the United States will need local Zelenskys, and, unfortunately, our region has several such figures who still pin their hopes on America, which has treated us twice worse than Zelensky – during the Afghan jihad and the war on terror – but the allure of wars fueled by dollars has not diminished. Ukraine teaches us that those who fight American wars do not gain freedom, but contribute to the destruction of their own region and people.
8 – Pakistan’s Role and the Need for Anti-War Movements
Referring to Pakistan, it will once again be pushed to become a frontline state and the ruling classes will be bought through secret deals and dollars. It is imperative to organize a national anti-war campaign to prevent our country from again becoming fuel for others’ wars. To this end, it is necessary to effectively resolve the internal contradictions, so that the state and imperialism cannot exploit them for their own purposes. The people want peace, justice and work. War serves only those who profit from corpses for dollars.
Conclusion
After Gaza and Ukraine, the liberal world order has ended. Who will fill this void is premature to say because the direction of history is determined by struggle. But those who still beg for freedom from America after the shameful scenes at the White House will find their place in the dustbin of history
Author: Sumaira Manzoor – Lecturer in Political Science, Higher Education Department, Punjab, Pakistan.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).