In the rapidly changing global security environment, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) brings with it both unprecedented opportunities and significant risks.
Among the foremost concerns is its integrative use in military operations, thereby holding potential for completely changing war’s nature. With autonomous weapon systems, AI drones, and smart algorithms, some analysts are now on the verge of declaring the advent of what may become the “Invisible World War III.”
This emerging war will be characterized less by traditional military confrontations and more by covert, cyberled, algorithm-enhanced forms of warfare that seek to develop AI technologies for strategic advantage without evidently or directly engaging in physical confrontations. The discussion will entail an examination of the effects of AI weapons in warfare, the strategic risk that comes with this technology, and how we may expect global conflicts to evolve in the age of AI warfare.
AI-powered weapons may not be the stuff of distant futures; they have instead been likened to an approaching reality-ready. Over the last ten years, AI has been introduced into a vast range of military technologies, from drones and satellites to AI-assisted surveillance and cyber-coercion.
Very much like the KUB-BLA (KYB-UAV) and Lancet drones operated from within Russian territory, these AI systems showcase the ability of AI to augment the weapon’s lethality, precision, and autonomy. These drones carry intelligent algorithms that enable them to independently identify and strike targets without substantial human involvement, thus maximizing operational efficiency. They allow military forces to strike in a focused, less detectable manner. Among the premier advantages of AI in warfare is precision with the ability to strike.
AI systems can make decisions rapidly, within milliseconds in unpredictable environments, due to their ability to analyze a vast amount of data at high speed and accuracy when compared to human operators, who can be fallible. The incorporation of learning and adaptation means that great precision and efficiency can be infused into military operations, thereby saving civilian lives and collateral damage. This capacity has changed the conditions for military evaluation, since adversaries may be faced not only with intelligent human agents but also with intelligent machines capable of independent action.
Nonetheless, the use of AI in weaponry poses grave existential questions for war. Really, the total conversion of an already existing weapons system to fit into a new form of autonomous drone acts as yet another milestone towards the establishment of a unique category of weaponry, or so generally referred to as a military robotic system. These machines would not require human care for operation at all and therefore could be programmed to offer a more accelerated speed of converting decisions into action, making military operations more efficient as well as unpredictable. Although this offers very promising aspects in terms of efficiency of operations, it also opens doors towards unintended escalation and surprising consequences.
While normal warfare involves the observation and measuring of troop activities, movements, and strategies in large military theaters, and even on a smaller scale, AI-enabled warfare is defined by those acts that cannot be seen, surveyed, or measured. New forms of warfare directly include cyberwarfare, social media misinformation, sabotage activities, and even the deployment of autonomous weapons, all of which can be mathematically calibrated to some level of denial.
As the integration of AI systems deepens into military operations, the previously distinguishable actions of a human become increasingly indistinguishable from machine-driven decision-making. One negative side of invisible warfare is the use of AI for cyber warfare. AI algorithms can automate the identification of network vulnerabilities, thus enabling large-scale high-precision attacks by state and non-state actors. Autonomous within networks, malware augmented by AI may change resistance and exploit the weaknesses that appear. Attacks of this type may paralyze an entire country through critical infrastructures, such as the power grid, transportation, or financial networks, without firing a single shot. Even if assaulting cyber warfare with the help of AI is nearly impossible, it becomes almost impossible to attribute ownership, which then gives rise to nations that go to war without much visible borders in between.
Furthermore, psychological operations and disinformation campaigns have begun to use AI on a larger scale. Deep learning algorithms can produce fake videos, social media posts, and articles capable of swaying public opinion, causing discord, or even dislodging governments. Information warfare provides an excellent textbook example of invisible warfare, where the battlefield is in the minds of people and not in the usual arenas of war. Propaganda creation and dissemination, therefore, is a prime area in which AI can incite trouble and influence politics through previously unthinkable means.
The strategic implications of AI-powered warfare are profound, both for the conduct of military operations and for the broader geopolitical landscape. As AI becomes an integral part of military strategies, it is essential to understand how it will reshape the dynamics of power, deterrence, and conflict resolution. The quickest of all strategic implications brought about by AI weapon systems is the acceleration of arms control competition. As nations develop and deploy an increasing number of such AI-enhanced military technologies, competition will likely develop for ever-superior AI-powered weapons systems.
The arms race thus intensified would move many countries to possess organic autonomous weapons, making controlling and putting in place regulations for the employment of AI in warfare a difficulty. The United States and China, among many other nations, invest colossal sums of money in AI military technologies, and as these capabilities become easier accessible, they are going to increase the amount of warfare by robots into the future of conflict. It is more likely that smaller nations and non-state actors would have access to such technologies, potentially widening the threat of asymmetric warfare while raising instability risk at strategic importance points.
Concerns are arising about human control erosion regarding military decision-making with the increasing role of AI. The systems could be, for instance, autonomous weapons programmed to make decisions based on algorithms without human interference. It will speed up and smoothen military affairs. However, the AI could make decisions devoid of ethical justification or future consequences. An example would be that of an autonomous drone that confuses a particular scenario and inhibits a target without the input of a human thereby inadvertently aggravating a situation or injury of civilians.
Also, AI systems behave under environments that, if understood at all, humans may not be in a position to control. This makes them prone to error, as well as hacking and exploitation by another adversary. Relinquishing critical decisions to machine beings should find itself on more ethical and moral dilemmas, particularly with regard to accountability over actions undertaken by autonomous systems.
The advent of AI-enabled warfare will assist with the establishment of forms of conflict resolution that were hitherto non-existent. These days, negotiation and diplomacy may not be the only means of resolving conflicts; AI systems are being developed, which can help in both de-escalation and in strategic communication. AI simulations can assess military scenarios in a timely manner that would give political leaders access to better information for making more informed decisions, and avoiding the many pitfalls of miscalculations.
AI itself might aid peacekeeping by monitoring ceasefires, detecting violations, and providing neutral assessments of conflict zones. Unmanned aerial vehicles could serve to safely monitor human activity and battlefield conditions, possibly reducing or even eliminating the necessity for human presence in high-risk areas of conflict. In that manner, AI could help bring peace and stability by providing neutral information and reducing the human cost of war.
In the development and use of AI weapons, a new phase in warfare-an less visible, less predictable, and more damaging to some extent than war-is born. And as AI technologies get better and better, so do their strategic implications for global security.
AI can be such a remarkably useful thing in terms of precision and efficiency at the same time, and such a risk regarding unintended escalation, ethical considerations, or even the cyberdriven aspects of modern warfare. One must address all these aspects: the ethical, the legal, and the strategic in dealing with what is called AI-powered warfare, or new wars, or some future wars.
The regulation and control of autonomous weapons use, common rules of engagement, and human oversight must remain folded into decision-making. Now that the world has moved into the realm of invisible warfare, one must understand the important role that AI plays in military strategy and what proactive measures can be taken so that this invisible battle would not spin out of control.
Future global conflict may, after all, be fought not on conventional battlefields but in those invisible theatres of cyberspace, algorithmic warfare, and autonomous systems. To this end, nations will be required to take a forward-looking view of defense and diplomacy and ensure the responsible harnessing of AI power while taking account of its long-reaching consequences.
Author: Rana Danish Nisar – Independent international analyst of security, defense, military, contemporary warfare and digital-international relations.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).