Part II of the Special Series for Global Peace and Security: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC
Right after the abrupt Israel-Hamas conflict fully gulped down the political headline in the international society and absorbed people’s interest, the Ukraine War would fade out as a critical global issue. Moreover, it has been almost two years and there is no possibility that Russia willingly terminates such an inhumane disaster as it just sticked on the Afghanistan War for 10 years.
Even though Russia simultaneously attacked 118 places a day in the meanwhile the world concentrated on the Israel-Hamas conflict, it would be a temporary atmosphere to guarantee Putin’s victory. Putin has already lost a temper and irritated himself without winning the war. For instance, Putin strongly announced nuclear attacks through overwhelming drills. Nonetheless, it will bring out the ultimate obstacle that Russia’s collapse is imminent.
Putin is driving Russia toward a cul-de-sac so that nuclear attack will demolish his political ambition as well as Russia’s national destiny. Since World War II, nuclear weapons have never been conducted in a war which results in annihilating human history. If Russia uses nuclear weapons, its immeasurable catastrophe as a lethal war crime will directly spread around countries in Europe and Asia.
Putin has agitated European countries with such a bold venture, which enhance their military defense capability and stimulate security alliance against Russia. No matter if Russia wins the Ukraine War or not, it will confront a much stronger European Bloc and encounter hostile responses from most European countries as time goes by. Russia might be totally isolated from not only Europe but also the international society that its potential as the world power gets seriously damaged in national crises.
Since the New Cold War, the biggest military challenge broke out when Russia threatened Europe beyond Ukraine. Unfortunately, Russia is struggling in such a lonely war by itself, which becomes ignored and despised by the world. From now on, Russia should cope with much stronger NATO and the EU beyond Ukraine.
Waking Up from Peaceful Environment
The Ukraine War signifies the peculiar symbol of the New Cold War between Russia and the U.S. to take over international hegemony and expand military sovereignty. Its absolute victory jumps into the U.S. which manipulates the whole process behind Ukraine. The U.S. has smashed Russia in the New Cold War without cost.
There is a plausible conspiracy theory that the U.S. completely blew up Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines impossible to repair. Biden already warned if Russia attacks Ukraine, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be permanently extinguished. In addition, Antony Blinken said it would be the best chance to eliminate Europe’s dependence on Russia’s energy. He surely mentioned that the explosion crushed Russia’s imperialistic ambition which exploits natural gas as a dreadful tool to control European countries.
Russia full of indignation and desperation presented investigation resolution to UNSC with China related to the act of sabotage on Nord Stream pipelines, but the U.S., UK, and France slightly boycotted it with all the non-permanent members except Brazil. It’s so obvious that the U.S. conducted the explosion as the international society frequently mocks Russia’s naïve attitude to handle its national crisis.
Then why did the U.S. destroy the pipelines? It’s very simple. One thing is if the EU couldn’t buy Russia’s natural gas, the U.S. would be the substitute. Now, it is so lucrative and much more expensive compared to Russia’s. The other thing is to suffocate Russia’s main income resource which results in economic collapse. As a result, Russia will finally discard imperialistic expansion toward Europe that it falls to a serious national crisis. The Nord Stream sabotage plot is very simple, but its conclusion ends up with Russia’s collapse in the name of no cost-big outcome.
When Russia attacked Ukraine, the peaceful environment in Europe totally exploded. As Biden’s warning, Nord Stream pipelines exploded, and Russia’s national crisis exploded as well. On the contrary, even though peace in Europe would be impaired, it woke up most countries to reinforce their national security and military cooperation to keep up a peaceful environment.
After the Ukraine War
After Russia illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, NATO and the EU have looked at Russia’s military expansion toward Eastern Europe. As a result, Russia faces national dilemmas in a fatal crisis after Putin attacked Ukraine. Russia pitched itself in irretrievable malady by bringing up the dreadful status with European countries. It will get much worse unless Putin reflects on and apologizes for what he has done so far.
The Ukraine War has been a turning point to switch over to hostile relations between Russia and Europe. There is barely any possibility of preventing such a catastrophic sequence so that most countries for their security environment will block out Russia’s venture toward Europe.
First, it’s multiple economic sanctions from the EU and the outcome is very successful. The EU countries used to pay Russia up to $884 million for energy every day, estimated as 40% of Russia’s export income that it mostly spends to attack Ukraine.
Economic sanction basically tends to mitigate Russia’s national economy to defeat the war. In addition, most European countries completely reconstruct their energy industries by substituting Russia’s natural gas with Norway’s PNG or the U.S. LNG. Even after the Nord Stream pipelines were exploded, Germany terminated relations with Russia on purpose. European countries no longer depend on Russia’s natural gas so that it heavily impacts Russia’s economy by losing primary export income.
Second, it’s a military confrontation with NATO, which has strengthened the military alliance between members to defeat Russia. If Russia expands the war toward Europe, Russia will be dismantled in a second. The leading country in NATO is still the U.S. and moreover, the UK and France keep up nuclear weapons. If Russia is incapable of defeating NATO’s serial attacks at the same time, Moscow will burn up to ashes.
Third, it’s a diplomatic break with European countries in an extremely hostile response. Drastic anti-Russian syndrome has prevailed around the overall spheres of European territory. Russian antagonism will never vanish and even extend itself as a worldwide atmosphere. Russia has been already imprinted with the stigma of war crimes which will make itself much more isolated as time goes by. The world would very often watch such horrible, inhumane scenes perpetrated by Russia’s troops and will never forgive Putin’s maniacal massacre.
All these negative signs have already pinched the center of Moscow. Russia is severely wobbling in politics, economy, and military without guaranteeing any vision of a prospective future. Putin dared to invade Ukraine with imperialistic ambition, but its outcome is so sarcastic to bring out not only his political death but also Russia’s collapse.
NATO’s Role and its Engagement
Sweden and Finland applied membership to join NATO against Russia’s intimidation after Russia attacked Ukraine. They willingly gave up the comfort status as a neutral country for 70 years. If Ukraine becomes a member, Russia is absolutely surrounded by NATO countries which impede Russia’s military ventures. Belarus is also betraying Russia to help Ukraine and criticizing Russia’s brutal war crimes with potential to join NATO.
NATO is the biggest and supreme military organization in the world with a multi-national force. If Russia attacks any country of NATO, it will simultaneously conquer Russia as its original purpose against Russia. Unfortunately, Ukraine is not a member yet. This is a critical reason why Russia attacked Ukraine, which was eager to join NATO. Russia would be so afraid of confronting NATO’s formidable force by itself. NATO forces have been almost doubled in size to establish an iron curtain to block out Russia since it invaded Ukraine. On the reverse, Russia’s armed forces have been drained by hitting the bottom line. Nevertheless, Putin’s imperialistic illusion confirms not only to dominate Ukraine but also to roll back Western dominance with military and political influence over the former Soviet Union’s sphere. Such an enthralling motivation will never stop Putin’s reckless steps.
The Ukraine War turned into the Russia-NATO War beyond Ukraine. Europe would condemn Russia through multilateral organizations such as NATO and the EU. On the reverse, it has supported Ukraine with variable military support.
However, there is also an obstacle that NATO hesitates to fully support Ukraine, aware of expanding the war. If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, its fatal outcome will sweep away European territory. Then the war will be expanded toward Europe as the Russia-NATO War. If Russia continually uses nuclear weapons, France and the UK might consider using nuclear weapons which will turn into a nuclear war.
NATO is focusing on reinforcing military defense capability instead of stimulating Russia’s attack toward European countries. Nonetheless, NATO becomes outraged by Russia’s inhumane war crimes that it increases to support Ukraine.
There are a few prospects that NATO willingly supports Ukraine.
First, it is to hinder expansion of the Ukraine War. NATO will continually support Ukraine until the war completely terminates and even Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war. As soon as Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, the Eastern Bloc to confront Russia will be ironed out which can totally pulverize Russia’s upcoming military ventures.
Second, it is NATO’s military augment against Russia. NATO will finally defeat Russia as the public enemy in the military alliance by supporting Ukraine. On the contrary, Russia already lost military colleagues in Europe as a lonely fighter.
Third, NATO dedicates Europe’s security environment. After the Ukraine War, NATO’s role as well as its engagement to cope with military conflicts in Europe would have been much enhanced. Most countries in Europe are turning to a member of NATO so that its defense system gets strengthened.
NATO fully takes responsibility for Europe’s security by handling military conflicts and furthermore, beyond Europe’s territory. It dispatches troops wherever military conflicts break out, which has been dedicated to not only regional security in Europe but also global security.
Shift of Power toward Eastern Europe
The Ukraine War reorganizes military power structure from West to East in Europe. As the center of new construction, Poland is surprisingly turning into the headquarters of Eastern Europe by confronting Russia which used to be a sworn enemy in history. Poland focuses on expanding military force in speed as planning to double the size of the country’s armed force. It has purchased a large volume of new sophisticated military equipment and upgraded defense systems to become a more important player in both the EU and NATO.
Poland leading the Baltic countries has driven the outstanding task force to support Ukraine as filling up a leadership-vacuum from the beginning of the war. It made European power shift toward Eastward when France and Germany hesitated on how to manipulate Russia and support Ukraine. Poland convinced a reluctant Germany to send tanks to Ukraine and authorized other countries to do so. It has been conducting a key role as a frontline country with a military platform while delivering arms to Ukraine and accepting refugees.
Russia’s continual attacks accelerate the power shift toward Eastward as the new center of Europe. The Ukraine War has also enhanced the influence of Central and Eastern European countries with antagonistic gestures against Russia. Subsequently, the EU and NATO extended their scale and capability by embracing those countries and reforming the European security order.
France and Germany used to be a traditional power in the center of European territory. Nonetheless, they encourage the reorganization of the Eastern power structure because it directly involves Europe’s security against Russia and potential military conflicts around this area. In addition, the Eastern Bloc is closer to the Israel-Hamas conflict, where it might take part in advance.
Europe’s Rearmament for National Security and Military Cooperation
Germany officially announced that it would strengthen its military, committing armed forces fund of $113 billion and keep up its defense spending above 2% of GDP. It declared military rearmament to confront the New Cold War after Russia attacked Ukraine. As a leading country in the EU with a prominent economic power, Germany strongly impeached Russia’s military threat as infringing the European security environment.
The utmost influence through the Ukraine War is Europe’s rearmament that accelerates military competition. For instance, Poland which went through a horrible massacre from Russia in World War II imports large scale military weapons to rearm.
Ironically, the Ukraine War propelled Ukraine to join the EU and NATO, which were manifested in the constitutional law of Ukraine as a national goal. It guarantees the prospective future that Ukraine escapes from the somber shadow of imperialistic dictatorship as well as becomes totally independent from the hatred influenced by Russia. In addition, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey are already registered as a candidate country in the EU. Besides Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova also applied for EU membership.
Above all, the EU considers establishing the European Union Force (EUF) as focusing on Rapid Response Force to expand strategic autonomy. It tends to enhance self-defense force in Europe since anticipation related to further armed conflicts climbed to the climax after Russia’s provocation.
With successful economic integration, the EU propels political and military integration for the overall European security environment. It would be exposed to a vulnerable status of collective self-defense because the EU has depended on NATO for a long time. But the EU finally triggers a mutual defense strategy to establish a Rapid Response Force including army, navy, and air force to manage the military crisis until 2025. Germany and France as a military power will lead the EUF as calling it strategic compass, compatible but independent with NATO. The EU will take over an important role related to Europe’s security management against Russia in advance because it represents overall European countries with economic, political, and military integration.
The McKinsey & Co analyzed that European defense spending from 2021 to 2026 would have grown 14% but the Ukraine War pushes up the increase to at least 53%, from its estimate of $317 billion to $485 billion. Among NATO countries, Germany with Europe’s biggest economy has devoted one of the smallest shares of GDP for the defense budget. But after Russia invaded Ukraine, it amazingly boosted $106 billion for military spending.
As well, France raised its six-year budget allocation for military defense by a third. Poland drew up a shopping list that it purchases hundreds of the HIMARS rocket launchers. There are three times as many tanks as France and UK have combined and six times as many self-propelled artillery pieces as Germany possesses.
Therefore, the Ukraine War remains a few critical lessons on what is best for the international society which should go forward.
First, it’s Putin’s political death to end Russia’s imperialistic ambition. Putin should take care of all the responsibility related to the failed war. Russia’s glory back to the Great Soviet Union will never come true.
Second, it’s Russia’s collapse. Russia completely surrenders in the New Cold War. Russia’s national power will be withdrawn not only from Europe and Asia but also from the international society.
Third, it’s NATO and the EU’s military reinforcement to fulfill Europe’s security and prosperity with an omnipotent power. In particular, the EU will upgrade its function and role to represent Europe.
Fourth, it’s the satellite to rethink global peace and security. The world attains a great experience again through the Ukraine War as any country provoking war will inevitably beat itself up and vanish in history.
The Ukraine War might be a historical platform to kick out Russia’s bold ambition. It gives a radiant victory to democratic world and moreover, former members of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe turn into the Western side by cleaning up the relations with Russia. They successfully take independent steps based on Russian antagonism that emerged in such an imperialistic war and willingly join NATO and the EU by propelling rearmament for global peace and security.
Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: EFE/ J.L.Cereijido