The newly elected US President, Donald Trump, is not the puppet of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as his opponents try to depict him. He is not a “Russian spy” either, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reportedly characterized him.
Despite widespread fears in Kyiv, as well as in certain Western political circles, Trump is very unlikely to make any serious concessions to Moscow.
During Trump’s first term (2016-2020), the Donbass war, which broke out in 2014 was “on hold.” Russia was too busy fighting ISIS and the so-called moderate rebels in Syria. That was exactly what Washington needed at the time.
“We had no wars, for four years, we had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS,” Trump said in comments referring to his first term as president.
In reality, it was the Russian military and the Wagner group that played the key role in defeating the Islamic State militants in Syria. The Kremlin did the “dirty work” for Washington.
That, however, does not mean that the war in Syria is over. It was just put “on hold” around 2018. Sporadic shelling continued between the Syrian Arab Army and the Turkey-backed rebels based in Idlib. There were also Turkish military operations against Kurdish forces in the north of the war-torn country. But overall, there were no major battles, and the situation was relatively calm.
The Kremlin could, therefore, begin preparations for the invasion of Ukraine. Now that the Middle East is on fire again, and Trump seems to see Iran and China, rather than Russia, as Washington’s major geopolitical opponents, rumors are flying that the Ukraine war could be put “on hold” again.
In September, the US vice President-elect JD Vance outlined the idea of freezing the conflict by establishing autonomous regions on both sides of the demilitarized zone and leaving Ukraine outside NATO. In other words, Russia would be allowed to retain the territory it has currently seized – which is around 20 percent of Ukraine – while Kyiv would have to abandon its efforts to join the US-dominated alliance. That, according to reports, seems to be the core of Trump’s “peace plan.”
From the Russian perspective, accepting the US President-elect’s proposal would mean giving up on the goals of the Kremlin’s so-called special military operation in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin could undoubtedly attempt to portray such a move as Moscow’s “geopolitical victory”, or at least as another “goodwill gesture.” If, however, Ukraine uses the ceasefire to consolidate its positions and eventually launches a large-scale offensive against Russian forces, Putin will almost certainly use his well-known rhetoric accusing Donald Trump of “deceiving” him and “led him by the nose.”
At this point, however, pro-Kremlin propaganda suggests that Putin will reject Trump’s proposal, even though back in July he said that he takes Trump’s idea to end the war seriously.
For Ukraine and its leadership, freezing the conflict could be very dangerous. Once martial law, introduced in February 2022, is lifted, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Ukrainians are expected to leave the country and move to the European Union. That would have tremendous consequences for the country’s demography, and especially its manpower issue.
More importantly, it would be very difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to explain to his voters why he stopped fighting and signed a Minsk-style ceasefire agreement with Russia. For him, the end of war would almost certainly mean the end of his power. But since Zelensky, as well as the entire Ukraine’s leadership, remains heavily dependent on Washington, he is not in a position to say no to Donald Trump.
The good thing for the Ukrainian leader is the fact that Trump, despite alleged anti-Ukrainian rhetoric coming from some of his allies, continues picking hardcore pro-Ukrainians in his cabinet. He is, therefore, unlikely to turn his back on Kyiv, even though that is what some of his supporters expect him to do, hoping that such an approach will end the war.
But even if Putin and Zelensky, under Trump’s pressure, reach a ceasefire deal, that does not mean that peace will prevail. Russia and Ukraine will likely remain engaged in a positional warfare, as they did between 2015 and 2022, while the Minsk Agreements were in place. The US, for its part, will almost certainly continue arming Ukraine, preparing it for another round of fighting, as that is in its military-industrial complex best interest.
Meanwhile, Washington is expected to focus on other regions. JD Vance has recently said that China is a bigger problem for the United States than the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump, therefore, seems to expect Putin to indirectly back Washington in a potential confrontation with China, be it over Taiwan or any other issue. He also likely hopes that Russia will not provide military support to Iran in the event of a wider war between the Islamic Republic and Israel. In exchange, Trump could let Putin save face in Ukraine, allowing him to retain the Donbass, Crimea, as well as parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. And that is the best-case scenario for the Kremlin.
Sanctions that the West imposed on Russia are extremely unlikely to be lifted as long as Putin is in charge. Also, even if Trump manages to persuade Putin and Zelensky to sign a ceasefire deal, that does not mean that the war will be over anytime soon. The very nature of the Ukraine conflict indicates that it can end only when one of the two involved parties agrees to de facto capitulation. And we are still far from such an outcome.
Author: Nikola Mikovic – Journalist, researcher and analyst based in Serbia.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).