By Javad Pasandideh
The Republic of Belarus is a former USSR country, located in Eastern Europe and bordering the Republic of the Russian Federation. Belarus is the last authoritarian, almost monarchical, state on the green continent, with the long-standing presidential system, led by Alexander Lukashenko since 1994.
Political controversies over the non-compliance with the principles of the 1997 constitutional elections, and the failure to respect legal and democratic standards, established a corrupt oligarchy at the highest level in the executive power of the Eastern European republic, with a violation of the democracy and the non-realization in Belarus of a democratic rule similar to the European countries.
The 26-year presence of Alexander Lukashenko, a former Belarusian official during the Soviet era, following the Soviet independence and the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States, at the end of 1991, has been accompanied by the continuation of a kind of authoritarian system of centralized government, leftover of the Soviet era. The closed economic system and the complete assignment of political and bureaucratic power to the country’s president and government has been part of the legacy of Soviet rule over Belarus.
However, despite the aforementioned characteristics of the ruling government of Belarus and Lukashenko’s undisputed leadership in this country, coupled with the history of suppressing democratic demands in this country, it must be recognized that the ruling regime of Belarus, like other dictatorial regimes, it did not avoid protests and pro-democracy movements.
The common features of the political systems of the post-Soviet states, and the experience of various revolutions and popular uprisings in these countries, indicated that political events in each of these republics will have the potential to spread to other CIS countries.
The emergence of the velvet revolutions in the republics of Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, as well as political evolution in Ukraine at the beginning of the 21st century, together with the intrasystemic tensions of political power in the Russian Federation, at the beginning of the period of political and economic transition , after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is an example to prove the above claim.
In this article, the focus is on the possibility of the spreading of the recent events in Belarus to other countries of Central Eurasia, following the announcement of the results of the presidential elections in the country, and the consequent protests against the election results by the political opposition, and the majority of voters, against the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko as president of Belarus. The analysis method used is deductive and descriptive of comparative data.
The background of post-independence protests in the former Soviet republics and the nature of the movement pandemics
A quick look at the political developments in the CIS republics reveals that factors such as the lack of a successful and democratic transition to a new independent nation-state, and the legacy of Soviet-era bureaucracy, along with the lack of a democratic culture at the leadership level, and the lack of a civil society in countries from the Central Asian and Caucasus republics to Eastern Europe and Russia, have been among the factors that have sparked popular protests against the governments of these countries.
Political developments, similar to those currently taking place in Belarus, include the 2005 Velvet Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, the Rose Revolution in Georgia, and the Ukrainian Velvet Revolution.
In addition to the above, we can mention the protest movements related to the failed results of the presidential elections of 2003 and the parliamentary elections of 2005 in the Republic of Azerbaijan, which were other political events characterized by popular protests in the post-Soviet republics.
An important point in the political developments of the former Soviet Union and in the republics close to the Russian Federation was the formation of a series of protests and street demonstrations at close intervals in the Eurasian countries. Thus, the emergence of the velvet revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, and the anti-government protests in the Republic of Azerbaijan in the first decade of the 21st century, indicate the existence of similar characteristics at the agency and government level, in the type of political systems of these countries and in the emergence of same achievements and similar social feedback about the performance of the governments in the post-Soviet republics.
The sick economy and the failure of the reforms promised in the various political, economic and social spheres by the leaders of these countries, the incomplete transition to independent nations government, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the economic weakness and the security and military dependence from Russia (an example is the civil war in Tajikistan and the presence of the 201st Russian division on its borders), together with the interventions of Western governments and the lack of the growth of a democratic culture at the micro and macro levels of society, made challenges and obstacles to the transition to independent popular sovereignty and the acceptable response to social demands by the CIS countries.
Protests against fraudulent presidential elections in Belarus in 2020 by another candidate, Svetlana Tykhanovskaya, which led to the arrest of hundreds of protesters and the killing of two people during a mass street demonstration in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, are also a serious message to the leaders of the CIS countries, and in particular to Russia and Putin, about the possible spread of pro-democracy movements and fundamental changes also in other CIS countries.
Author: Javad Pasandideh (Political analyst. Teheran, Iran).
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: Dmitri Lovetsky/AP