By Sumaira Manzoor
From December 2019 to April 2021, the world learned a lot from COVID-19. However, one thing we haven’t understood is “awareness among the masses” around the world.
There is serious lack of awareness when it comes to SoPs regarding COVID-19. The multiple waves of COVID-19, which we face today are the result of lack of seriousness in following standard operating procedures regarding COVID-19.
What does it mean for third wave ??? We used to use this term as “third wave of democracy”, it means that the process starts, then there is a pause and then it starts again and the process goes on. The same is the case with the recurrence of COVID-19. During the first wave, we saw severe restrictions by governments to counter the threat of spread of COVID-19. When things have normalized up to a certain point, we ignored the SoPs and faced the second wave and now we suffer from the third wave. This is not only the case in developing states, but can be observed globally.
Severe devastation of the 3rd wave can be seen in almost all of Europe, America, India and all developing countries, Pakistan is no exception. More than four thousand cases have been registered in Pakistan every day. The causation rate is also increasing day by day, the causation rate we are seeing today is the highest since June 2020. One thing can be clarified is that the “3rd wave” is more devastating and deadly than the 2nd wave.
One explanation for the emergence of the third wave is neglect, but there is another reason as well. Several variants of COVID-19 have been developed such as the South African variant, the British variant etc. These variants are super spreaders and more fatel. It is worth mentioning here that these variations are also more effective for children. In developing countries, the majority of the population is made up of a younger population, as in Pakistan 64% of the population is under the age of 30. That’s why the impacts are worse there.
The state’s response to counter the spread of COVID-19 is the same in the first wave, in the second and in the third wave, that is, en bloc. Educational institutions are closed, the market is closed and there are serious travels, trade restrictions are also seen. These restrictions are being observed around the world. The economies of developing countries have suffered greatly from all of this. As in the case of Pakistan, several poor people / daily betting packages have been announced, but the question is: Could the state’s economy bear this burden again and again? Obviously not.
Major impact of 3rd wave of COVID-19 is “vaccine disparity”.3rd wave is likely to induce what we called as vaccine nationalism. Developed world is already being monopolizing vaccine for themselves such as Americans and Europeans etc. On the other hand developing countries with huge population are suffering a lot. According one American report it will take a decade for Pakistan to vaccinate 75 percent of its population. Because of this vaccine nationalism it can be said that, till 2021 the end of 2021 most of the European and American countries will likely to get vaccinated to the extent that may create ‘Herd Immunity’. But in developing countries it is absolutely no chance to reach to this level. Consequently, developing countries will likely to see more and more waves.
Another impact will be the imposition of strict restriction on developing countries by the developed world on trade and travel. This will again perpetuate the socio-political and economic problem faced by the developing world. In a nutshell, North-South gap, which was only economic is going to turn into vaccine, health and even travel restriction.
New studies and research will be needed to ascertain how this COVID-19 is effecting children- the future of the world. New research is needed for the development of vaccine for children because current vaccination is not recommended for children so far. We will might see new advancement for vaccine development in the world. But when it is developed the again same question will arise- is it prioritize for developed world only??
One of its major impact can be seen on global politics i.e. “vaccine diplomacy”. It is not directly linked with 3rd wave , but this wave is highlighting such issue: different countries are in competition to use vaccine supplies to create their global image and influence. India for example, which lacks its own domestic vaccination program, it is interested in sending vaccine to the neighbouring states, to portray it as a well-wisher of other countries, even at the expenses of their own citizens. It is backed by United States, Japan and Australia, as we saw in the QUAD meeting, in which it was decided to make India as a supplier of vaccine to the world.
China on the other hand has developed the vaccine and has send it as an aid, for example to Pakistan. Chine has supplied vaccine to almost 70 countries till now. We can see the race between developing and developed world to take advantage of pandemic and creating their global image. In other words COVID-19 has provided the opportunity to the contender of new cold war to spread out their influence. Apparently, China is fare head than the west in this race. We will might see in future, the inclination of developing world towards China then west which is more nationalist in terms of vaccine.
To conclude, we can say that this 3rd wave is so far the most important in the frame of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the developed world it might be a last breath of COVID-19. But it poses more serious challenges to the developing world than it has created in the past.
However, one good thing is that developing countries have gained from the first and second waves the experience necessary to deal effectively with the third wave. The developed world should understand that “vaccine nationalism” will create long-term problems for the entire world. It is beneficial for the entire globe to get vaccinated on an equal basis.
Author: Sumaira Manzoor – M.phil Scholar ( Political Science) Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Source: NDTV