By Denis Korkodinov
The war with the “Islamic State” is not over, despite the statement by US President Donald Trump to the contrary. A significant part of Syria is still under the control of various kinds of armed formations, including ISIS.
Thus, in the north-west of Syrian territory, the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham retains its dominance, while the north-west is under the control of Kurdish groups. It is these areas of the SAR in the near future can become the scene of bloody battles in which the “Islamic State” is likely to show itself with a new force. The process of neutralizing this threat will directly depend on the ability of the leaders of Damascus and Baghdad to form a reliable system of governance in the liberated areas, as well as on the ability to reconcile the warring parties and adapt local Sunni Arabs to the conditions of respect for peace.
Implementing a set of measures aimed at the complete elimination of the centers of the “Islamic state” in the region is extremely difficult. Despite significant losses among jihadists, a huge number of so-called “sleeping cells” remain in the region, which continue to carry out subversive activities against the official governments of Syria and Iraq. In addition, as a rule, ordinary ISIL militants were eliminated during counter-terrorist operations, while the leadership, with rare exceptions, was preserved, which creates the basis for their recruitment of new followers.
It is also worth noting that the fight against “LIH” in Syria was one of the manifestations of civil war. In Iraq, the situation is somewhat different, since here the ideology of jihadists relies primarily on local nationalism, which creates great problems in the process of neutralizing the “Islamic state” in the region.
The governments of Damascus and Baghdad are currently unable to offer ordinary citizens anything that could distract them from the ISIS ideology. This applies not only to guarantees of peace and security, but also to investments in the process of restoring the urban infrastructure that has been devastated by the war. Thus, according to the most modest estimates, more than $ 300 billion is required for the reconstruction of destroyed and plundered Syria and Iraq. None of the donor states, among which the most prominent role is played by Russia, Iran, the USA and the countries of the Persian Gulf, are ready for such expenses.
Another problem that impedes the liquidation of ISIS is the extremely aggressive policy of the armed forces loyal to Bashar Assad. The Syrian leader not only intends to free the territories under the control of jihadists, but also to instill fear in the liberated population. However, this technique leads to a completely opposite result.
Thus, many Syrians who previously lived in the territories occupied by the “Islamic State” still remain loyal to the ideology of the Islamists, even if they have to express loyalty to Asadites on pain of death. The extremely inattentive attitude of the Syrian government to counter-propaganda technologies leads to the fact that the number of followers of ISIS does not decrease, but, on the contrary, increases. In other words, without the brainwashing of jihadists, that is, using the methods of information warfare, it is very difficult to defeat the Islamic State.
Thus, for the complete elimination of jihadists on the territory of Syria and Iraq, a whole range of preventive measures, among which counter-propaganda occupies an enormous place, are still not used. The governments of Damascus and Baghdad should finally understand that “ISIS” is hiding not so much in the dungeon, as in the heads of the people. And they do not work to convince the local citizens that the “Islamic State” is a destructive ideology, it will be almost impossible to defeat jihadists.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: AMM