By Syed Inam Ali Naqvi
Climate change is wreaking havoc throughout the globe. The human desire for getting developed and the industrial process are deteriorating the favorable conditions of the planet. The temperature of the earth’s atmosphere and the water bodies are rapidly increasing.
The natural habitats are getting disturbed. The glaciers and polar ice caps are melting. The favorable conditions of the planet that are mandatory for the survival of life are getting worse. Sea levels are rising and water resources are getting scared.
According to the estimates of scientific organizations, the temperature on the planet would exceed between 1.4-5.8 Celsius, by the end of this century. The UN framework convention on climate (UNFCCC) Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa, explained this devastating situation as the Climate Emergency.
Climate Change is actually a global phenomenon affecting different geographic areas of the planet, disproportionately. One of the areas that is intensively hit by Climate Change is South Asia. In this region, there are extreme weather conditions such as heat waves and floods. Global warming of 2-4 Celcius in sea surface temperature is about to increase the intensities of the tropical cyclones by 10 to 20 percent.
The rise in temperature along with the decrease in precipitation is more likely to exacerbate the challenge of water scarcity. Contrarily, water resources are already under huge stress because of the immense rise in population and inefficiency of water use. Consequently, climate change in the region is rapidly increasing the risk of hunger and declining crop yields. According to the calculations, every 1 C rise in temperature will increase the requirement of agricultural water from 6-10 percent. In addition, it will affect agricultural production, and will also have drastic effects on market dynamics and prices.
According to a report by the Office of National Intelligence (USA), 11 countries on the planet are vulnerable to socio-political and socio-economic instability due to climate change, and Pakistan is one of them. In Pakistan, climatic challenges are ranging from the unpredictability and scarcity of rainfalls in Monsoon season to the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers.
The melting of ice caps and glaciers contributes to the Indus River System and there’s high probability of destructive natural disasters like floods and droughts. Pakistan has faced more than 150 weather related incidents till now. According to the estimation of environmentalists, there are more than 30 glaciers which are at the risk of bursting, and may consequently lead to ice avalanches and floods. Apart from that, the increase in temperature to the favorable limit increases locust production by 20 folds every 3 months. Consequently, the climate emergency is a major threat to the food security of Pakistan.
In this climate emergency, Pakistan’s food security is at risk. The World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defined food security as “the universal access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that fulfills the adequate dietary requirements and provides satisfaction for the healthy life at all times”. The looming problem is climate change in Pakistan. Unfavorable changes in temperature, excessive rainfalls, melting of glaciers and floods, Water scarcity, Rainfall in harvesting season and droughts have drastic effects on Pakistan’s economic and food security.
The Food and Agriculture Organization warned South Asian states in its report about wet winter, and concluded that 38 percent area of Pakistan in which 15 percent from Punjab, 25 percent from Sindh and 60 percent from Baluchistan could serve as breeding ground for locust, and the severe damage in Rabi Crops is also predicted.
Moreover, Food security challenges for the poor are also very hard. Since the 2013 droughts, water crisis and drought have become the usually occurring issue, and 87 percent of the people in drought affected areas of Pakistan are rearing livestock. The lack of fodder production and scarce water lead to the animal diseases, deaths and consequently limits the sale. Furthermore, In 2018 Monsoon rains in Sindh and Balochistan were 40 percent and 45 percent below average, respectively. In the next year (2019), heavy rainfalls resulted in floods in Balochistan and Sindh, which caused 1.4 million children (Age Group 6-9 Months) to suffer from malnutrition. According to the calculations of the UN Food and security cluster, the drought in Pakistan affected approximately 5 million people in about 26 districts of Balochistan and Sindh Province. According to the Human development Index 2020, Pakistan ranked 154 out of 189 states and ranked 106 out of 119 states in the Global Hunger Index.
Global Hunger Index indicated that 22 percent of Pakistan’s Population is undernourished. Apart from that, the World Food Programme reported that Pakistan’s 60 percent Population is suffering from food insecurity. In Pakistan, 43 percent children of less than 5 years are suffering from Malnutrition and 15 percent from acute malnutrition.
The agricultural industry of Pakistan contributes greatly to the Economy of the state. It contributes approximately 22-24 percent of the total GDP and generates employment for almost 40 percent of the workforce. Contrarily, Climate Change could cause a loss of about 4 billion dollars annually, along with inflation in food prices and halting its production. Moreover, it is also estimated that South Asian countries have to deal with 36 million climate migrants till 2050 and Pakistan would also have to face this burden of migrants on its vulnerable economic position.
To ensure its survival, Pakistan has to deal effectively with these Climate Emergency and Food Security Challenges. There are few recommendation for overcoming these challenges:
– Pakistan should take measures to decrease the carbon emission and must switch to clean and green energy resources. This will decrease the production of GreenHouse Gasses and will create favorable climatic conditions in the country.
– Pakistan must start plantation drives at a large level and should take safety measures for the protection of forests in the country. Trees not only produce oxygen and minimize the effect of heat waves but also check the floods.
– Pakistan should have an effective mechanism of water storage and water shouldn’t be wasted especially in the areas that are highly affected by droughts and water security.
– Pakistan should set up its own food storage bank to tackle this food insecurity. Moreover, Food storage banks should also work for the areas with higher proportions of malnutrition.
– Recently, India took an appreciable initiative of creation of a Food Corridor with UAE and Israel to overcome the challenges to food security. Likewise, Pakistan should also create its own food corridor with the friendly Islamic states in the Middle East and China.
Syed Inam Ali Naqvi – Undergraduate Student of the Department of International Relations, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: AP/Khan