World Geostrategic Insights interview with Farshad Adel on the current strategic significance of China-Iran relations, how the new Trump administration’s maximum pressure on Iran will affect Chinese-Iranian ties, the “philosophy” underlying the relationship between China and Iran and a new possible approach to diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Farshad Adel is Secretary-General of The Iran-China Think Tank For Strategic Studies, Teheran.
Q1 – China and Iran elevated their bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in early 2016 when President Xi Jinping visited Iran, and such a strategic relationship has grown significantly in recent years. During his meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that regardless of changes in the international and regional situation, China will unswervingly develop friendly cooperation with Iran. How would you define and assess the current strategic significance of China-Iran relations, both in terms of the two countries and in the broader regional context?
The relations between Iran and China are deeply historical, with a legacy that can be traced back 2,500 years according to historical texts. Iran and China have been neighbors for centuries, leaving a profound impact in both the western and eastern parts of Asia, and they share a common civilizational perspective on various matters. This deep understanding between the two countries creates significant potential for cooperation. Therefore, it can be said that the relationship between Iran and China is a natural one, and this natural relationship is strengthened in the context of the new international conditions, such as China’s economic growth and Iran’s geographical position. However, to understand the current state of relations between Iran and China, an introduction must first be provided, and I will attempt to present a perspective on China’s foreign policy from my Iranian viewpoint.
Principles of China’s Foreign Policy
The People’s Republic of China has established itself as a dominant power on the international stage over the past decade. China’s growth in various industrial, economic, and technological dimensions has positioned it such that cooperation with it is not merely an option for other countries but a necessity. What distinguishes China from other powers is its narrative of a “peaceful rise.” In the narrative presented by China, the country portrays itself as a responsible power that, in its quest to regain influence, does not intend to challenge international structures and systems. Instead, it presents itself as a “coordinated” power within the international order, aiming to shape a vision of shared destiny for the entire world.
Han Zheng, the Vice President of China, described China’s vision for the future at the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly with the phrase, “Build a community with a shared future for mankind and jointly create a brighter future for the world.” This perspective positions China as an innovator in playing a role in the future of the world, emphasizing that this role, unlike many historical experiences where the emergence of a new power was accompanied by war and bloodshed, is peaceful and based on shared international interests.
China insists on four principles for its role in the international arena and the development of cooperation with other countries: the interconnection of national security, emphasis on win-win interests, commitment to multilateralism, and the advancement of human civilization. These principles are introduced as the main foundations of its international cooperation, providing a clear image of the Chinese mindset regarding its role in shaping the future of the world.
1 – The Security of All Countries is Interconnected China emphasizes peaceful methods for resolving disputes and considers itself committed to respecting the sovereignty of nations. It expresses its opposition to “hegemonism,” unilateralism, and a Cold War mentality, viewing international sanctions against countries as actions against global stability. In the Chinese perspective, complete respect for the principles and actions of state sovereignty holds a special place, and the country commits itself to upholding international norms. Furthermore, based on this perspective, as the only permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, China has pledged never to use nuclear weapons preemptively, presenting this commitment as a sign of goodwill to the world.
2 – Emphasis on Mutual Interests and Win-Win Outcomes China aims to establish its role in leading the global community towards development and has thus planned various collaborations, especially with developing countries, to create sustainable development through developmental corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative. The country also seriously considers financial assistance, technology transfer, and capacity building for developing countries, identifying itself as a member of the group of developing nations. Additionally, China believes that the development processes in countries around the world should not lead to the neglect of environmental crises; therefore, it emphasizes the implementation of the Paris Agreement and environmental preservation, introducing the development of green and environmentally friendly projects as one of its key objectives.
3 – Advancing Human Civilization Emphasizing the diversity of civilizations and respecting them is a principle to which China has expressed its commitment. Essentially, China’s approach to developing international cooperation is always accompanied by a civilizational perspective and cultural connections. Establishing win-win relations among civilizations for human development, opposing the use of human rights and democracy as political tools, pursuing common grounds while setting aside differences, and advancing human rights in accordance with national conditions are among the elements that China considers in its international actions based on the foundation of advancing human civilization. China consistently presents itself as the heir to a significant part of human civilization.
4 – Emphasis on Multilateralism This principle can be considered one of the most important aspects of China’s approach to international relations. It supports international order and mechanisms centered around the United Nations, emphasizes the commitment of powers to uphold multilateralism, advocates for reforms in areas such as peace and security, economics and trade, encourages increased dialogue among developing countries, and strives to improve global governance. Overall, for China, shaping multilateral interests and engaging various countries to achieve common goals is a priority.
Belt and Road Initiative and Continental Mentality
The Belt and Road Initiative is essentially an effort to create a brand aimed at attracting international partnerships for China’s development-focused projects worldwide. This initiative can be seen as a practical outcome of China’s goal-setting for the future of the world, with various countries expressing their interest in cooperating and partnering with China to advance developmental programs through trust in this brand. Despite claims of the initiative’s failure, it should be emphasized that the Belt and Road Initiative has indeed lent legitimacy to China’s international collaborations and has encouraged many countries to partner with China in pursuing the Chinese dream for the world.
In other words, the Belt and Road Initiative has fulfilled its primary objective of generating interest among other countries for developing cooperation with China by creating allure for them to engage in China’s future programs. A prominent example of this is the expansion of China’s cooperation with West Asian and African countries, which has seen significant progress over the past decade.
Therefore, the Belt and Road Initiative should be analyzed separately from an idealistic perspective, and it must be acknowledged that this initiative has been successful in reality, meeting China’s main goal of attracting international support and cooperation for advancing developmental projects worldwide, especially among developing countries.
Advancing the programs mentioned in this initiative is a tool through which China’s ultimate goal of “global shared destiny” is realized. This initiative arises from a unique and Eastern perspective, which posits that the major failure of Asian countries in achieving comprehensive development in intellectual, scientific, and industrial domains stems from a lack of a model suitable to their civilizational background and Eastern spirit. Accordingly, China, recognizing this issue, has sought to compensate for this deficiency by reviving significant civilizational elements of the East, such as the Silk Road, to present unique initiatives and intellectual products that address this void. Providing intellectual products to the world in the contemporary era is crucial for emerging powers, enabling them to shape a new era through the creation of narratives and scientific literature based on the Asian model of progress.
The Paradigm of China’s Growth and Change in the International Order
China’s emergence as an influential international power has presented countries with more diverse choices for shaping political, economic, and security collaborations. The international paradigm of China’s growth, accompanied by the prospect of a political and economic superpower in the East, has instilled confidence in various countries (especially those in the developing world) to approach cooperation with Western powers, particularly the United States, with caution, viewing themselves as having the option to choose an alternative. A clear example of this phenomenon can be observed in the recent relations of oil-rich Arab countries with the United States.
Iran-China Relations
Naturally, this issue holds special significance for Iran, a country that has been in confrontation with the West, especially the United States, for decades, generating new motivations for establishing extensive connections with China. It was based on this motivation and interest that we witnessed the signing of a 25-year cooperation agreement between Iran and China.
The 25-year agreement between Iran and China is essentially a roadmap that seeks to define the directions for cooperation between the two countries; however, it lacks any binding legal obligations. Nonetheless, the Chinese side, whose foreign policy DNA is to collaborate with everyone, seeks to work with all countries and has plans for engagement. This is particularly noteworthy concerning a country like Iran, which shares borders with 15 neighboring countries and is situated in a very unique geographical position that can connect four continents using various land and maritime capacities.
Nevertheless, the relations between Iran and China are still not at an adequate level, and this becomes clearer when we compare Iran and China’s trade volume of about $15 billion in 2024 to the over $100 billion trade volume between Saudi Arabia and China. Naturally, one of the most significant obstacles in Iran-China relations is the sanctions; however, other factors also play a role in this issue.
For example, regarding Iran-China cooperation, one less-discussed obstacle is the existence of an intermediary expert body that holds a negative view towards developing relations with China. Although senior officials may seek to expand cooperation, this intermediary body has developed a negative mindset towards China for various reasons, especially following the 25-year agreement. This attitude can be discouraging for the Chinese side, particularly when China is striving to build a reliable international brand.
Historically, especially since the modern era, Iran has shown a greater inclination to collaborate with Western parties, and this approach still exists in society. For instance, after the JCPOA, despite the increased opportunities for cooperation with China and Russia, many collaboration opportunities with China were handed over to Western partners, leading to a certain level of skepticism among Chinese policymakers towards Iran.
This inclination towards cooperation with the West is clearly evident in public opinion polls; many individuals prefer to establish relations with the United States rather than China. This reflects the dominance of Western discourse over public mentality.
Thus, it can be concluded that despite the interest of Iran and China in cooperating with each other and the existence of strategic motivations and historical and geographical capacities to elevate relations to the highest level, we are faced with very weak relations between Iran and China. The depth of these relations bears no resemblance to what is promoted in the international arena, and it seems that there is a kind of exaggeration, especially from Western media, regarding the Iran-China relationship that does not align with reality.
Currently, China’s trade volume with Gulf Arab countries exceeds $380 billion, and coincidentally, these countries are primarily recognized as partners of the West and the United States, while the trade volume between Iran and China is even less than $15 billion and has faced a 9% decline in 2024. Therefore, we must view these relations with a realistic perspective and distinguish between cooperation capacities and actual occurrences.
Q2 – China has been Iran’s main trading partner for years, and bilateral ties have intensified, especially in the energy sector. China’s dependence on Iranian crude oil, which accounts for about 13 percent of its imports, underscores Tehran’s importance in Beijing’s energy policy. Many of the sanctions imposed on Iran by the Biden administration have been ignored by China. On March 20, however, the United States issued new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, including what the State Department called the first U.S. measures against a Chinese refinery (Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd.) that processes crude oil. It was the fourth round of sanctions imposed by Washington on Iranian oil sales since President Donald Trump declared in February that he would resume a campaign of “maximum pressure” to reduce Iranian exports to zero. How do you think the new Trump administration’s measures will affect Iran-China relations? Will China side with Iran against Washington, or will it prioritize reducing tensions with the United States?
Iran’s importance to China in terms of energy security is not solely related to the amount of energy China receives from Iran. Currently, a significant portion of China’s energy needs is supplied by Russia and Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and Iran’s role in meeting China’s energy requirements is much less than in the past. One of the main reasons Iran is important to China is that Iran has the capability to disrupt the energy market and threaten global energy security. China is aware that Iran has the ability to create disruptions in the oil and gas production of Arab countries. Such actions could lead to an energy crisis worldwide, and naturally, China, as the largest energy consumer in the world, would suffer the most.
For this reason, China strives to use its influence to maintain a balance in relations between Arab countries and Iran. This is essentially why China was the initiator of normalizing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, leading to the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries after years, facilitated by China.
The reality is that U.S. sanctions have had a significant impact on Iran’s role in the energy market, and it is natural for this to affect Iran’s energy exports to China as well. Despite this, and although Iran does not hold a prominent position among China’s largest energy suppliers, China remains the largest buyer of Iran’s exported energy. However, it should be noted that financial transactions for payments to Iran remain difficult, with a large amount of Iran’s oil revenue being blocked and inaccessible to the country.
With the advent of the Trump administration, one can expect these problems to intensify, and undoubtedly, this will significantly impact the relations between the two countries. Currently, we are witnessing a decrease in China’s oil purchases from Iran compared to two months ago. In such conditions, with the increased risks associated with trade relations with Iran arising from the U.S. maximum pressure campaign, we should certainly expect that Iran-China relations will become more limited.
One cannot expect that, in the face of these pressures, China will steadfastly support Iran, as China is an international power that considers itself committed to international order and security. Iran is recognized as a revisionist state and one of the leaders in conflict with the Western order led by the United States. Therefore, China will never deeply align itself with Iran and may only provide support at the level of political statements.
This awareness of China’s considerations and its perspective on international relations exists within Iran, and among Iranian specialists, no one expects China to bear the high costs of practical support for Iran against the U.S. Furthermore, China’s view of international politics is not such that it would take this risk against Trump. Understanding China’s perspective on foreign policy, as mentioned at the beginning, clearly substantiates this point.
Q3 – You have highlighted the “philosophy of Iran-China relations” and promoted a new infrastructure to foster diplomatic relations between the two countries in the new era. Can you give more details here?
Diplomacy, as the art and science of political, economic, cultural, and scientific communications, is a tool through which nations promote peaceful relations. This knowledge, art, or tool refers to interactions among countries aimed at enhancing peaceful relations and includes the art and science of communication, foreign policy tools, and the development of political, economic, and cultural relations. I strive to present a new approach to diplomatic relations between Iran and China, considering historical, geographical, and civilizational capacities.
Contemporary political philosophy largely has its roots in ancient Greece, where city-states developed under the influence of the natural geography of the Mediterranean region and grew with independent and diverse identities. The new approach to the genealogy of the political, instead of referring to Western history, focuses on understanding events and civilizational processes from an indigenous perspective. Asia, as a connected expanse with natural and commercial corridors, has shaped historical interactions.
The Necessity of a New Perspective on Diplomacy in Iran
To propose a unique vision for diplomacy, we need to provide a definition of Iran that reflects the most prominent features of the country for interaction with the world in the current era. For this purpose, we may need to revive some historical concepts and cultural communications between Iran and especially neighboring countries. In this context, despite engaging with each country in a unique diplomatic language, the structure and foundation of Iran’s political practice in diplomacy will revolve around a fixed axis aimed at maximizing national benefit.
This subject, despite its significant importance, has unfortunately been overlooked until today. In other words, Iran’s diplomacy with other countries, especially neighboring countries and Asian powers, has never stemmed from a cohesive and central core that complements diplomatic cooperation with each country to shape a larger image and a grand strategy in foreign policy. What should be considered in the current situation is theorizing and creating a coherent narrative or foundational idea for constructing Iran’s political practice with other countries.
Accordingly, what is expressed in this discourse is a response to the concern framed as a new idea called “Continental Mentality in Foreign Policy.” This idea should essentially be seen as an initiative responding to the need for Iran to have a grand, “flexible and inclusive” idea for engaging with the countries of the world, especially neighboring countries and Asian powers. This should include providing reasoned and appropriate definitions of modern Iran as an extension of Iranian civilization, while also meaningfully situating each country within a larger picture of relationships that serve Iran’s national interests, without depicting Iran as confrontational, totalitarian, or interventionist.
Continental Mentality and Diplomacy
In the idea of a continental mentality, while considering civilizational commonalities as the foundation and basis for new interactions with neighboring countries and Asian powers, we focus on geography as the cradle in which civilization has grown and evolved, influenced by its requirements. In this perspective, we study the impact of geography on shaping civilizational and historical trends and events, identify the roots of these trends and events, and then, by recognizing civilizational and historical commonalities, provide narratives applicable to today’s world.
Therefore, in our continental mentality, we consider the expanse of Asia as a common and fixed ground, akin to a stable stage for the civilizational display of Asian countries. We then present the necessary intellectual products and initiatives to the world by understanding the interactions that have occurred on this stable stage.
A very fundamental point that must be considered in formulating a new grand strategy for Iran’s foreign policy is that such a foreign policy, to serve as a foundation for Iran’s diplomacy, must simultaneously consider the cultural and civilizational necessities of Iran and the shared history of Iran with other countries, while never appearing biting or aggressive. This is a very sensitive issue; because most of the countries surrounding Iran are generally composed of newly established states, and due to fears of political assimilation in Iran, they create artificial boundaries between themselves and Iran. Despite emphasizing civilizational commonalities, they strive to present them as independent from their own historical backgrounds. Therefore, Iran’s foreign policy initiative must have a comprehensive and precise view of such issues. Iran must recognize these concerns and simultaneously strive to transform these civilizational commonalities into a basis for developing political, cultural, and economic relations, as well as people-to-people relations.
Of course, this effort may initially be met with skepticism from regional countries because, as mentioned, due to the novelty of these states, the nation-building process within them is not rooted, and they always try to maintain distance from Iran. Moreover, they may portray Iran as the “Other,” whose identity and independence are defined in opposition to this Other. For example, the United Arab Emirates has chosen November 30 as Martyr’s Day, commemorating the killing of Salem Suhail bin Khamis on November 30, 1971, in Greater Tunb due to disobeying orders from Iranian soldiers.
In such circumstances, we must unveil an idea that, while recognizing diversities, also considers common roots and fundamentally does not operate on the basis of “ethnicizing culture and civilization and appropriating it for the benefit of one nationality or culture.” This is precisely the opposite of some movements from Turkey as a regional competitor, which seeks to appropriate the history and civilization of West Asia for the benefit of one ethnicity by infusing ethnic color into its initiatives and highlighting Turkish identity. Such an idea can only be discredited if a superior and inclusive idea, embodying the spirit of Iranian tolerance and based on the shared past of regional countries, is presented to the world. An idea that speaks of a civilizational chain in which each country has a history intertwined with others, and each ethnicity is defined not in opposition to another but as a complement to a larger process, namely civilization-building in Asia.
In this perspective, by identifying historical roots and analyzing civilizational developments, efforts should be made to highlight shared pasts, historical ties, and communications among peoples, re-narrating and restructuring the impacts and influences of civilization in a new and useful way to enhance Iran’s national power. This new narrative should serve as a common language in the foreign policy and new diplomacy of Iran.
In the idea of a continental mentality, Asian countries are envisioned as interconnected beads of a chain that, due to geographical reasons, have been linked for thousands of years and have been equally affected by both good and bad events. This has led to a kind of intermingling and shared destiny, making it practically impossible to separate any of the groups from one another; because these civilizational groups are so intertwined in various manifestations of their civilization that their points of differentiation are very faint. For this reason, we must seek examples for this claim, perhaps the most important of which are the ancient routes that connected these civilizations to one another.
The continental mentality emphasizes the civilizational and geographical connections among Asian countries. In this approach, the security of all countries is interconnected, and development can only be achieved if Asian countries equally possess the necessary minimums.
Farshad Adel – Secretary-General of The Iran-China Think Tank For Strategic Studies