By Saamia Jahangir
The skirmishes between the world’s two most populous countries, China and India continue to create uncertainty in the region. Both nations have a long history of border conflicts including the war of 1962.
The war halted with the creation of Line of Actual Control (LAC) which acts as a de facto border between them till date. China and India hold numerous disagreements over several points across Line of Actual Control (LAC) which limits both states to settle on peaceful grounds. The 2017 Doklam Standoff was the highlight of mutual aggressive behavior and military flashlight. However, not a single fire was shot across the border since 1975 which led to a discrepancy over the possibility of full fledge war.
Yet, the onset of recent confrontation between the neighboring states in Ladakh has given rise to novel uncertain warring possibilities. The latest clash, that has caught the global eye, took place near the Pangong Tso Lake in Ladakh on 5th May. The soldiers came face to face using stones and blows to limit movement of the opposing force, resulting in several injured soldiers.
The clashes continue till date as the world’s largest unmarked border witnesses an increased deployment of military arsenals and soldiers across it. Both sides of the governments present altering views of why the dispute escalated to current levels. In the wake of recent events, Indian officials blame Chinese military to cross into Indian Territory several times in the recent years. Meanwhile, Modi’s plan to build important roads along the Chinese border have provoked Beijing’s patience as it sees it a risk for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It has raised uncertainty and alarm on regional as well as global level.
Both India and China embody a vision to become the “Asian Tiger”. In 1980’s, China and India held equal power base on the global front in terms of economy and military. However, the recent escalation in Chinese progression has allowed Xi Jinping’s vision of “Chinese Dream” to be strongly perceptible. According to 2018 statistics, the Gross Domestic Product of China is five times that of India standing at $13.6 trillion in contrast to $2.7 trillion of the latter. Similarly, the defense budget of China is also far above than that of India’s. No doubt India has also risen as a global power but comparatively, it lacks the determination and strength of Chinese vision.
Over the years, both China and India have tried to keep the calm by signing various agreements like the confidence building measures of 1993 and 1996 as well as the 2005 accord over boundary negotiation guidelines. Leaders have also tried to manage the overall relationship in the best possible way. However, the border disputes have failed to settle due to rigid policy adoption of the leaders of both countries.
These clashes gained an automatic significance in the light of the contemporary global power transition phenomenon. In this context, India is establishing strong economic and strategic ties with China’s competitors United States and Japan. In the meantime, along with developing its global influence, China is securing its borders to emerge as a strong competitor for global hegemony. Its Southern and Northern borders hold trustworthy allies in the form of Pakistan and Russia respectively. It is also modernizing its military assets and building islands to assert its determined intentions in global politics. Amidst this, resolving border issue with India becomes imperative for China’s security and strategic needs. The underlying intentions of both China and India only point towards an escalation in regional and ultimately global instability.
Over the years, there are high chances that due to these persistent struggles across the border; China will continue to see India as a threat to its desire of becoming regional and eventually a global power. Both India and China are unwilling to settle the dispute on peaceful terms which has become clear in the wake of recent events.
This will have long term implications on economic, political, societal and security domains. China and India have a huge trading system in operation with China being India’s largest trading partner. The profitable market potential in both countries facilitates the local businesses and keeps the economy running. During the period of 2017-2018, the bilateral trade between the neighboring states jumped to US $62.9 billion. Trade potential for all sorts of commodities is vast which will be highly affected in case if the conflict persists.
In this scenario, the crumbling global trading system will be yet another challenge in these tense situations. The rising tariffs and subsequent limitations on investments will challenge the already struggling economies. Ultimately, this will lead towards increased poverty in both countries. Scarcity is already a prevailing condition in this region of Asia. Therefore, the prevailing conflict in Ladakh and a threat of rising tensions will have a direct impact on the living standards of a common man.
Moreover, the rising trend of nationalism has caught India and China right in the middle of it. Both of the ruling governments tread on highly nationalistic viewpoints of global politics and strategy. Currently, China is facing an unprecedented opposition in Hong Kong over its policies. China’s relations with Taiwan and its militarization in the South China Sea are also point towards its patriotic foreign policy. India is also long swirled in its controversy in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
The insecurities of the local Muslim and Sikh communities in the country have also gained global highlight now and then. Both the governments are assertive in claiming their respective regions and unwilling to solve any dispute, including the one in Ladakh, through unfavorable means. The escalation of confrontation in Ladakh can create a state of security in the other conflicted areas as well. India already faces risks of several separatist movements; therefore prolonged uncertainty will lead towards unstable conditions in the regional sphere.
Many analysts believe that the border confrontation might settle down after a while but if it persists, the conflict is capable of having global implications. It is being covered by media all over the world and before long; it can display a domino effect. The biggest rival of China that is America has shown an interest to solve the issue of border standoff between both nations. Since, America has strong ties with the Indian nation; the American intervention has further infuriated the Chinese administration. This has led the Chinese government to warn India of refraining from Sino-U.S. larger row.
The heightened tensions have also led the Chinese administration to caution India of its economic and regional interests in case India intervenes in the so called “New Cold War”. China believes that the peace between India and China is only possible in case India comes out of the U.S. shadow. Both states needs to show flexibility if they desire regional peace.
There is a high need that both the nations look for a peaceful settlement of dispute. Otherwise the future of 2.7 billion people along with the regional harmony will be at stake. Peaceful diplomatic methods must be adopted to develop a level of trust amidst the ongoing uncertainty. In this regard, international institutions like Shanghai Cooperation Organization or Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank can play a vital role.
Both the neighboring countries provides home to a total of 2.7 billion people. This accounts for third of the world population. The economic development and global influence of both nations have rapidly increased over the recent years. They are somewhat equally progressing towards organizing their defensive aspirations. Most importantly, they hold the deadly nuclear weapons.
This means any delicate escalation in the ongoing conflict arising from this region will have global implications. As much as the peace is required, the current scenarios suggest that it will take lot of compromises and patience from both nations for de-escalating the conflict.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)