The Pacific Island Countries have a vast area, covering 51.8 million square kilometers of water and only about 303,000 square kilometers of land. They are scattered among Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
Giving some examples, Palau is located in the western seas of Micronesia: the country covers an area of about 487 square kilometers; there are also about 340 volcanic islands, with an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of 630,000 square kilometers, which is strategically important because it can control the main routes between the Philippines and Guam. EEZs are marine areas, adjacent to territorial waters, where a coastal state has sovereign rights to manage natural resources, jurisdiction over the installation and use of man-made or fixed structures, scientific research, and protection and conservation of the marine environment.
The Marshall Islands are located in the eastern seas of Micronesia: the country’s area is only 181.3 square kilometers, but its EEZ is vast: 2.13 million square kilometers; the entire country consists of 29 main atolls and 1,225 small islands.
The island of Nauru, also in the Micronesian region, has an area of only 21.2 square kilometers. Then there is Tuvalu, in Polynesia: composed of nine reef islands, it has an area of 25.9 square kilometers and an EEZ of 900,000 square kilometers.
The following features can be noted:
1) The land areas are small-less than 500 square kilometers-but the EEZs under their jurisdiction are vast, remote, and therefore far from major markets such as China, the United States, Europe, and Asia. The remote location requires long lead times and high costs for air and sea transportation to the outside world.
2) With the exception of Nauru, which is a hard rock island raised from the sea floor by deposits of phosphate sediments, and Palau, there are small islands made of volcanic rocks: the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, Pacific countries composed of reefs or coral reefs. Being located above sea level at only about 2-4 meters, they are very vulnerable to natural disasters, including hurricanes and tsunamis, as well as to global climate change that causes sea level rise, coastal erosion, and salinization of seawater, which makes the soil unfavorable for crop growth.
Also reverberating in these areas is Oceania’s current situation in the context of China’s growing influence and rivalry with the United States in almost every region of the world.
The region is important to the United States and China, as Beijing’s strengthening influences the Pacific Ocean island states and also plays an important role in Australasia, consisting of Australia and New Zealand.
It should be noted that the main factor in China’s relations with these island states is the provision of economic assistance on more favorable terms. With regard to relations with Australia and New Zealand, China’s interest is mainly to purchase the goods it needs, especially minerals, timber and agricultural products.
For the United States, the region is of interest almost exclusively in the context of the possibility of a military presence, with a view to a future “Midway II.”
China’s growing influence in Oceania has long provoked strong opposition from Canberra and Wellington, who justify it with concern for their national security. It can be speculated that this reaction is also largely due to the hardening of the U.S. stance toward cooperation with these countries by China, portrayed as the Leviathan rising from the Ocean or – worse! – the Lovecraftian Cthulhu.
U.S. allies are attentive to China’s military presence in Oceania, but in the short and medium term it has no stable basis. The further development of the foreign policy situation in Oceania will be determined by both China’s activity and the position of the United States. A future division of states in the region into groups favorable to the United States and China cannot be ruled out.
Since the beginning of this century, China has acquired the status of an important economic and foreign policy partner of the countries of Oceania, including also the aforementioned Australia, New Zealand, and Southwest Pacific island states.
Since Xi Jinping came to power in China, China’s activity in the region has increased. China is very interested in the region’s forest, mineral and fishery resources and provides financial assistance to several countries. China’s growing influence in the region comes against a backdrop of increasing financial and economic influence of developing and even developed countries. Adding to this is the country’s increasing military potential, as well as its targeted efforts to ensure its presence in key areas and communication routes by establishing a serious presence in various port facilities.
At the same time, Oceania is a region where the United States has had a significant presence since World War II. The region is of strategic importance to the United States, as it hosts important military installations such as radar bases, missile defense systems and missile test ranges.
China’s growing influence in the region is seen as a threat in the U.S. vision of a “free and open” Indo-Pacific Ocean only for Washington’s strategic, economic and military interests, so the U.S. must maintain diplomatic ties with countries in this region.
As highlighted in the 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy, Washington relies on Australia and New Zealand to reduce economic vulnerabilities and disaster damage to U.S. island partners.
Washington has free association agreements with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau. These states are formally independent, determine their own domestic policies and the fate of their very rich EEZ subsoil; they are subject to consultations with the United States and members of the United Nations. They regularly receive financial support from the United States and are entitled to travel, reside, work and study in the United States without visas.
In return, Washington has received unlimited military access to the land, sea and air territory of these states. In terms of foreign policy and defense, these countries cannot make decisions that the U.S. leadership considers unacceptable.
Guam and American Samoa are basically U.S. territories. The inhabitants of Guam, unlike those of American Samoa, are full citizens of the United States, but neither territory has representatives in the U.S. Congress-they are second-class citizens.
Guam is home to the Andersen Air Force naval base, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile complex and a rotary bomber air base.
Southern Oceania countries (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Tonga and Samoa) receive $750,000 annually to conduct military exercises and train armed forces and police personnel. Countries in the region also conduct joint exercises with the U.S. military under the Oceania Maritime Security Initiative.
Since the beginning of this century, U.S. relations with most countries in the region have not been accompanied by significant upheaval. The exception is Fiji, with a wave of coolness that lasted until 2014 and then thawed after a series of ethnically and religiously motivated coups.
Since the era of Barack Obama, U.S. foreign policy interaction with countries in the region has intensified somewhat, and this trend has continued during the Trump administration.
The main difference is that U.S. interaction with Australasia-Pacific countries under Trump occurred in light of the strategic rivalry with China. Moreover, under Trump, the climate change agenda-which is of paramount importance to countries in the region-has lost relevance as sea level rise poses a threat of flooding and freshwater problems.
U.S. trade and economic relations with countries in the region are insignificant and come mainly in the form of financial assistance from the White House.
At the same time, it should be remembered that the history of China’s interaction with the island states of Oceania began with the arrival of migrant workers from China to the region in the late 19th century. In the mid-1970s, China established diplomatic relations with Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Western Samoa. Although the Pacific Ocean island states do not play a significant role in Beijing’s military or economic policy, at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries China began to greatly increase its influence in Oceania.
In 2006, the first visit by a Chinese premier to the region took place: geologist Wen Jiabao traveled to Fiji to inaugurate the Forum on Economic Development and Cooperation between China and the Pacific Island States.
In 2018, the trade volume between China and the countries in the region — which have diplomatic relations with it — was $4.3 billion, while the volume of Chinese direct investment was $4.5 billion.
China is actively involved in providing financial assistance to countries in the region. Its volume from 2006 to 2016 was $1.781 trillion. In addition, Oceania countries are an area of Chinese tourism development. Five Oceania states (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu) and the Cook Islands (a country in free association with New Zealand) have expressed a desire to participate in China’s One Belt One Road project.
Most of the countries in the region have mainly fish and forest resources, which are already being successfully exported to China (especially Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea). Papua New Guinea has the greatest potential for developing economic cooperation with China. In 2005, the country’s government entered into an agreement granting Beijing the right to explore and develop new methods of mining gold, copper, chromite, magnesium and other minerals. In addition, an agreement was signed with the Sinopec company for the annual sale of two million tons of liquefied gas produced in Papua New Guinea. There is a Chinese-owned nickel and cobalt production enterprise in the country, in which one of China’s state-owned companies has invested about $1.4 billion.
In addition, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu provide diplomatic support to China, particularly on issues such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea. This is because economic assistance from the United States and many international organizations is associated with requirements for domestic reforms, such as economic liberalization, and it takes a long time to approve it from the former and receive it from the latter, while Chinese loans and economic aid are not tied to such restrictions, as the Middle Empire does not meddle in the internal affairs of states: simply put, Beijing has never bombarded anyone to impose its socio-economic-political system on others.
Finally, it should be mentioned that the region is also of great importance to China because it is home to some countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan: the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau and Tuvalu, although the lack of diplomatic relations does not interfere with trade development,
China has no military presence in Oceania. The only such facility in the region, a satellite communications land station in Kiribati State, was dismantled after diplomatic relations between the two countries ended in 2003 (resumed in 2019, however, but without a Chinese military presence).
China has every chance to become a leading country in Oceania and to continuously promote the sustainable development agenda. As for China’s strategic plans for the region, they remain very vague. The Chinese Navy is too far from the mainland to conduct large-scale operations there. China focuses on the security of energy transport routes and the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
In theory, the further development of partnerships with some countries in Southern Oceania does not preclude the appearance on their territory of facilities that could be of military importance to China. It should be noted that the free association agreements between the United States and the Northern Oceania states will expire in the next five years: with the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands in 2023, with Palau in 2024. There is no doubt that the terms of these agreements will be extended, but the future U.S. position on climate change is critical.
However, the continued rebuttal of U.S. allies in the region on the issue of rivalry with China, could lead to a deterioration of their relations with countries in the region that perceive positively the cooperation with the People’s Republic of China.
Author: Giancarlo Elia Valori – Honorable de l’Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France, Honorary Professor at the Peking University.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).