Denis Korkodinov – Interview with Ornella Succar
The degree of public sentiment in Lebanon is rapidly rising amid riots. Between supporters and opponents of the government of Beirut clashes broke out using firearms. According to a number of political experts, there is a risk of a bloody revolution in the country.
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with Ornella Succar, Lebanese journalist and political observer, director of the Institute Future Concepts.
1. Protests in Lebanon have not subsided for the second month in a row. At the same time, the government of Beirut and the country’s president are clearly at a loss, not knowing how to neutralize the protest movement. At the same time, Lebanon quite seriously discusses the scenario of the upcoming revolution, believing that the current social unrest is only a prelude to larger-scale and bloody clashes. In addition, many experts are inclined to believe that the Lebanese revolution can happen in late December 2019 – early January 2020, when many members of the international community will be busy with New Year’s preparations. Also, some unofficial sources have information that Michel Aoun and Saad al-Hariri are ready to leave Lebanon in the event of a real complication of the situation in the country. Is it really? Is there a risk that a revolution can really happen in Lebanon?
– I do not think that we will encounter military tension between the state and the participants in the protests, especially during the New Year holidays. In this regard, the information that a revolution will take place in Lebanon in the very near future is simply a rumor, the purpose of which is to discredit the protest and carry out reforms.
Due to the short-sighted and inconsistent policies, our Lebanese government has become a hostage to interfaith conflicts. This was the main cause of social unrest. At the same time, it is enough for the protest movement to slow down the pace of development so as not to become a hostage to professional agitators. Actually, this is happening now. For example, in a number of cities in Lebanon, corrupt authorities tried to drag protesters into a violent clash, but the demonstrators were smart enough not to succumb to provocations, as a result of which mass bloodshed was avoided.
Be that as it may, Lebanon will not be a variation of Syria 2.0, because we know what happened to Syria and how the war arose there. There is no real resistance that his people face. Everything that is happening now in the Syrian theater of operations is aimed at escalating the conflict, which puts Damascus in an awkward position. In turn, we strive to avoid the implementation of the Syrian scenario in Lebanon and we will not allow a war or revolution to come to our homes.
2. Recently, the former US ambassador to Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman, speaking to a subcommittee of the House of Representatives for the Middle East, said that “the demonstrations and reactions to them by Lebanese leaders and institutions, fortunately, coincide with the interests of the United States.” Does this mean that Washington supports certain groups of protesters in Lebanon and has a direct interest in organizing unrest in the country? Are there any signs that the US may be seeking a change of political regime in Lebanon?
– Objectively, the protest movement in Lebanon intersects with the goals of the West, in general, and the United States, in particular, but it has nothing to do with the export process of the American model of democracy. This is due to the fact that now Lebanon is facing economic problems. And the continued holding of the government of Saad al-Hariri does not solve any of these problems, but only exacerbates them.
The protests are aimed at trying to correct the situation that arose through the fault of corrupt officials. And, apparently, that was exactly what Jeffrey Feltman had in mind when speaking of a coincidence of interests. To some extent, Washington is also interested in resolving a number of economic difficulties that have arisen in Lebanon.
Nonetheless, we are opposed to the US imposing its point of view on us or interfering in our affairs. See what Washington has done in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Libya. This is unfair. Therefore, we do not want to depend on American politics, which can destroy us. Lebanon is not reckless, because people are knowledgeable enough not to fall into a suspicious game organized by the White House administration.
3. On November 25, 201 fierce clashes between Hezbollah activists and anti-government protesters occurred in Beirut. According to Lebanese press reports, Hezbollah militants attacked protesters after demonstrators blocked the central bridge. Experts note that this event can change the picture of social protests when people have a reason to use weapons against Hezbollah as a response, which can lead to mass bloodshed. This event may serve as the beginning of an active phase of the Lebanese revolution. What do you think about this? How likely is it that protesters can use weapons against supporters of the current political regime?
– The Lebanese protest movement will not naively give in to various tricks of corrupt officials and their supporters. Therefore, the risk that the demonstrators will take up arms is very small.
Thus, I exclude the idea of confrontation or war in Lebanon and insist on a very important idea, which is that the protesters express themselves exclusively peacefully and civilized. This is a sign that the protest movement is not causing concern.
4. Currently, the White House administration has blocked financial assistance to Lebanon in the amount of more than $ 100 million, despite the fact that this assistance was approved by the US Congress and the National Security Committee. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of the economic crisis that swept Lebanon, financial assistance would be very timely and would solve a number of current economic problems. However, due to the decision of Donald Trump, Beirut may finally go broke, which will have a change in the political regime as a logical consequence. Do you agree with this statement? Can the Lebanese government find alternative sources of financial assistance to solve economic problems?
– At present, the West is the only supporter and savior of the Lebanese government. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was clear enough when he said that the Lebanese government should make its choose. In other words, it depends only on us what the future awaits us: Hezbollah and poverty or people’s government and economic stability. This is what is happening in Lebanon: a situation of choice between collapse and prosperity.
In this regard, the logical question arises as to whether the Lebanese war may be organized. This question can be answered in the negative, because, as I have already stated, the protest movement will be peaceful and civilized. Therefore, the transition to a new state policy will occur without any radical action.
Ultimately, we will form an independent government and hold nationwide elections, in which, along with representatives of traditional parties, protest leaders will take part. This must be done in order to pave the way for the convening of a constituent assembly and carry out reforms that are important for every citizen of the country. If this does not happen, we will return to the starting point from which Lebanon began its development 30 years ago.
Image Credit: REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis