Interview with Taras Stojković
Twenty years after the end of the military conflict in Kosovo, the process of political settlement of relations between Belgrade and Pristina has not yet givin results. The world powers showing interest in the Balkans no longer believe that the Serbo-Albanian conflict can be resolved peacefully. In this regard, the confrontation between Kosovo and Serbia, and the internal political crisis in Bosnia, Northern Macedonia and Montenegro, may l only grow, since the international community seems not interested in resolving them.
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with Taras Stojković, Serbian political expert of the Balkans.
1. On October 6, 2019, early elections will be held in Kosovo. This decision followed the resignation in July 2019 of the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Ramush Haradinov, who was accused of leading the rebel movement against Serbian forces in 1998-1999, when he was commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army. According to opinion polls, in the process of forming a new cabinet of the republic, no political party will receive the support of the majority, and therefore, long negotiations on the coalition are expected. In turn, experts predict that the new Kosovo government is likely to resume dialogue with Belgrade on normalizing relations, which is the main condition for Kosovo and Serbia to join the European Union. Is it really? What determines Kosovo’s desire for European integration, and how likely is it that the EU will be able to make a positive decision regarding Kosovo’s membership in it? Is Russia’s opinion on this issue authoritative for the president of Kosovo, Hashim Thachi? Will the next internal political crisis in Kosovo prove to be an occasion for the escalation of the Serbo-Albanian conflict?
Taras Stojković – I do not think that the main condition for joining the EU is the solution to the Kosovo problem. The first priority is an attempt to take away the Serbian land from its people at the expense of the available benefits and natural resources. Currently, Kosovo is neither a Serbian nor an Albanian region, since the North Atlantic Alliance has a dominant influence in it. Albanians in Kosovo are simply in a more privileged position. I do not think that the southern province of Kosovo will ever become part of the EU.
More and more countries around the world are beginning to realize the real picture and the annexation that is taking place and refuse to recognize Kosovo as a state entity. Russia simply follows the law and UN Security Council Resolution 1244, supporting the integrity of Serbia. Moreover, it does not matter at all whether Moscow’s opinion is authoritative or not, since Russia’s position is determined exclusively in accordance with international law, which should be the only authoritative source of legitimacy. I do not think that there will be a conflict, because it is not beneficial to anyone. However, solving this problem can take a very long time, since everyone wants a piece of cake.
2. The idea of “dividing” Kosovo into Serbian and Albanian parts was first publicly voiced by the President of Serbia, Alexander Vučić, as part of an “internal dialogue” on a possible decision on Kosovo and Metohija, which he initiated among the Serbian public. Later, the president of Kosovo, Hashim Tachi, said that there can be no talk of dividing the territory of Kosovo, but, nevertheless, it is necessary to “adjust” the border between Kosovo and Central Serbia by adding the three municipalities of Central Serbia (Presevo, Medveja and Buyanovac) to the territory controlled Kosovo Armed Forces. At the same time, Russia’s ambassador to Serbia, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko, in an interview with the Belgrade publication Politika, said that Russia does not advocate dividing Kosovo, as well as any other option for resolving the Kosovo issue, considering it the prerogative of the Serbs and Albanians. However, Moscow will not be opposed if, in accordance with internal Serbo-Albanian agreements, the “section” of Kosovo does happen. Based on this, it can be concluded that the project to create an independent Kosovo turned out to be insolvent and almost failed, because, among other things, the number of countries that have withdrawn recognition of the independence of the region is actively growing in the international community. Do the facts presented show that internal instability in Kosovo is artificially supported by members of the international community in order to influence Balkan politics? What are the chances that the “partition” of Kosovo will be a reality in the foreseeable future? Is it possible to argue that the initiative of the President of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci, to join the three municipalities of Central Serbia will be the basis for the active intervention of external forces, including the United States, aimed at recognizing Kosovo’s claims on parts of Serbian territory?
Taras Stojković – Albanian officials from Kosovo are promoting the idea that Kosovo belongs to the Albanians, while the Serbian government proceeds from the view that they need to promote what already belongs to them. However, having begun to present the real situation to the world community regarding Kosovo and Metohija, many countries refuse to recognize Kosovo, and many others would have done so if they had not been influenced by great world powers such as the United States. However, Kosovo is losing stability as the world begins to see the real truth about Albanian leaders.
Russian and Chinese opinion, in this case, is crucial in the negotiations, since they are superpowers that have the right to speak at the UN and are associated with Serbia.
I do not see the division of Kosovo, especially without taking into account the views of the local population. I would like to point out that when Quebec in Canada wanted to secede, this could not be done without a popular referendum. Serbs do not object to Albanians living in the province of Kosovo, but, after all, it is Serbian land, and the people of Kosovo must pay taxes to the Serbian government and comply with the laws of the Republic of Serbia.
For comparison, you can cite Quebec, avoiding paying taxes in Canada due to the fact that the majority of the population are French.
Joining is possible, but I do not think it is likely. I am sure that if any Serbian leader recognizes the independence of Kosovo, he or she will be remembered as a traitor to his own nation. Moreover, this will not lead to an escalation of the Serbian-Albanian conflict. One way or another, Kosovo Albanians take Serbian passports, because their rating is much better than that of Albania and Kosovo, so they can also recognize that they live on Serbian territory and stop destabilizing the region.
3. Bosnia held general elections in early October 2018, and since then, the main ethnic parties representing Bosnians, Serbs and Croats have not been able to reach a compromise to form a ruling majority at the state level. The meeting of Bosnian Muslim, Serb, and Croat leaders in August 2019 ended without an agreement, as member of the Bosnian Serb presidency Milorad Dodik was opposed to a package that included a plan that would bring Bosnia closer to membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. Meanwhile, an agreement between Bosnian Muslim, Serbian and Croatian leaders participating in a united presidency would be crucial for the country’s subsequent political and socio-economic development. In this regard, how likely is it that a compromise agreement on the formation of a coalition government in Bosnia will be concluded in the near future? Is it fair to say that the position of Milorad Dodik on the inadmissibility of Bosnia’s participation in NATO reflects Russia’s policy on this issue, when Moscow is trying by any means to push the North Atlantic Alliance from Russian borders? It is worth noting that, despite the opposition opinion of Milorad Dodik, the other two members of the joint presidency, representing the Muslim and Croatian community of Bosnia, nevertheless insist on joining NATO, on the basis of which, Milorad Dodik is in the minority. Does this mean that Bosnia, based on the position of the majority, will nevertheless join the Alliance? What development should be expected in Bosnia in this case: the entry of Russian troops in order to counter the policies of the Bosnian leaders, the organization of the military-political blockade of Bosnia? Or nothing will happen: Russia will show restraint and will not interfere in any way with Bosnia’s attempts to become a NATO member?
Taras Stojković – It is unlikely that a coalition with Milorad Dodik will be created in the near future when it comes to joining the North Atlantic Alliance. All three parties (Serbian, Bosnian, Croatian) in Bosnia should see what has been done in the Brcko District and follow their example. The area functions along with all three ethnic groups and has higher wages than anywhere else in Bosnia. Moreover, all three ethnic groups unite and collaborate with each other.
The biggest benefit may not be for Russia, but for Serbia. Citizens of Republika Srpska live there, but dividing the country into three parts may not be the best option. All these ethnic groups lived together in peace before the war and the intervention of great powers and must work together to re-establish the same language with each other, while preserving their heritage.
In addition, if countries start to separate, this will create a “domino effect” in Kosovo, Catalonia and other places. And this will make the region unstable, which does not meet anyone’s interests in the international arena. I do not think that there will be any military intervention, since it will bring more problems than solutions, and, in particular, no interference from the Russian military. Russia can diplomatically use its advantages, but this is normal, because all other powers “direct water to their own windmills.”
4. On August 30, 2019, the U.S. Department of State announced the appointment of Matthew Palmer as Washington’s Special Representative for the Western Balkans. Thus, the White House administration has demonstrated a desire to restore its leading role in the region. In turn, the intensification of US policy in the Balkans is faced with opposition from some politicians who are interested in maintaining the status quo. In particular, Serbia’s ambassador to Russia, Miroslav Lazansk, sharply criticized Washington, who downplayed the US’s potential role in resolving the Kosovo-Serbian conflict, saying that “the Kosovo problem can only be solved by us.” In addition, Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russian leader of the Bosnian Serbian Republic, which is dominated by Serbs, also expressed doubts about the ability of the United States to resolve conflicts in the Balkans? Does this mean that Washington intends to organize a policy of unprecedented pressure on the Balkans in order to restore its dominant position in the region? What actions to strengthen the American presence in the Balkans should be expected from the new US Special Representative, Matthew Palmer?
Taras Stojković – The United States does not seek to solve the problem, as they created it. They are located in the region because it is a strategic benefit for them. Nevertheless, I believe that without the intervention of the great powers, the problem will not worsen. The Albanians lived with the Serbs and paid their dues to the government, and they lived better than the Serbian population receiving the blows. In addition, the problem would be more easily resolved if the great powers were not involved and did not try to get their piece of the pie.
As soon as the Serbs, Albanians, Bosnians, Croats, Macedonians and Montenegrins start looking for a solution to their problems within their community, everything will be fine. However, it is not beneficial for the great powers to have a strong and stable Balkan region, therefore conflicts are not resolved here. Americans already dominate the region, and they are welcome here, as are the Chinese, Russians, Germans, British, French, and other regional players, but they need to respect the sovereignty of the countries in the region. This can only be stopped if the countries of the Balkan region work together and create their own alliance.
Matthew Palmer, having become the US Special Representative for the Balkans, will continue the White House administration’s course to ensure that the Union of Balkan states never appears. This is nothing new, since Washington has been faithful to its course for the deployment of the Balkans for several decades.
5. In October 2019, the leaders of the European Union intend to vote for the opening of negotiations with Northern Macedonia. This gave the foundation to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria Ekaterina Zakharieva during a meeting with her North Macedonian counterpart Nikolai Dimitrov on August 30, 2019 to declare that “Bulgaria has consistently supported European and Euro-Atlantic integration of the Republic of Northern Macedonia and believes that negotiations on EU accession should begin. “In this regard, how big is the role of Bulgaria as an intermediary between Northern Macedonia and the European Union? In the case of European integration, should social unrest and an internal political crisis be expected in Northern Macedonia that could be provoked by opponents of the official Skopje membership in the EU? Will tensions arise between Northern Macedonia and Russia for this reason? What actions should be expected from Moscow in the event of the entry of Northern Macedonia into the European Union?
Taras Stojković – Many Macedonians have relatives who live in Bulgaria. The people of Macedonia all the time mixed up with other peoples, so the Macedonians are represented in almost all countries of the region. However, only in Bulgaria is a sufficiently strong and influential Macedonian diaspora. All nations once lived peacefully with each other, but after a series of wars everything changed.
However, today the Bulgarians have influence in Macedonia, but I’m not sure how strong this influence is in the European Union. Conflicts can arise, since 65% of the population declare themselves as Macedonians, 25% – Albanians, and the rest – Serbs, Turks, Romanians, Bosnians.
Due to differences in population and historical conflicts, everyone wants to claim ownership of history or land. And that causes problems. I think that Russia has lost its influence in Macedonia in the way that it should have reacted many years ago to prevent the conflict from becoming what it is today. However, I am sure that Russia will always protect the interests of its nation and do what is best for its country.
Image Credit: afp.com/STRINGER