Throughout the history of mankind, the nations of the world have established political, cultural, economic and social ties to be stronger. International relations are always complex and face different stages as different situations and realities change.
Australia has not been the exception, especially with its Asian neighbors, who have undergone profound and dramatic changes during the two world wars and throughout the Cold War. In this essay, the dynamics of relations between Australia and the People’s Republic of China will be analyzed.
45 years have passed since China and Australia established diplomatic relations. Throughout this time, these two countries have curdled one of the most fruitful, controversial and interesting relationships on the entire planet.
Relations between the two countries have included stories of money, spies, accusations, infidelities and many conflicting interests. Some experts have mentioned jokingly that if instead of relations between two countries we were talking about the relationship between two people, without doubt the China-Australia relationship would be an interesting script for a soap opera.
China is currently Australia’s largest trading partner, since the Chinese buy 33% of all Australian exports, whose value amounts to 155 billion dollars a year. This is 8 times more than what was bought by the United States.
Another interesting factor is the cultural influence that emigration has brought, since 1 in 20 Australian citizens is of Chinese origin, including many millionaires who have decided to find a safer place for their heritage and their lives. Many Chinese banks claim that the Australian dollar is one of the safest currencies in the world to invest. It is possible to affirm that the enormous economic success of Australia (which has not been going through any economic crisis for 30 years) is mainly due to the intense and constant flow of Chinese capital to the island.
Despite all this close relationship, the year 2017 was very difficult for the relationship between the two countries due to the increased hostility of Australia’s diplomatic declarations to China after Trump’s arrival at the White House. However, despite Trump’s pressure, Australia publicly advocated the possibility of China replacing the US as a global economic power.
Australia’s geopolitical strategy obviously consists of “Balancing the giants”, seeking to obtain the greatest benefits from both Beijing and Washington without losing the support of either of the two powers. Australians advocate for economic growth in China, and bet on the US in military security and defense issues, in fact, Australia is the only Asian country that has participated in all US-led military conflicts.
In June 2017, Australian secret service agencies made a public accusation against the Chinese government, ensuring their serious intentions to influence Australian policy by buying and bribing political authorities of the Executive, Legislative and Judicial power, journalists, Chinese athletes, universities and citizens in Australia.
A relevant case was that of Sam Dastyari, an Australian senator who was forced to resign after it was revealed that he had received continuous bribes to make speeches in favor of the interests of the Chinese government, and even to alert a Chinese businessman linked to the Communist Party that was being investigated by Australian intelligence agencies. The Australian government has also accused China of bribing its researchers to assist in the production of weapons for the Chinese government. These scandals have not weakened in any way the economic relationship between the two countries, so many critics claim that Australia’s media declarations are a political strategy to ingratiate themselves with the US.
It is likely that the Chinese government will begin to pressure Australia by canceling the juicy economic agreements that have been signed in recent years, seriously affecting the economic growth of the island and plunging it into an economic crisis for the first time after three decades. of prosperity The Chinese government is not willing to endure the political damage and bad reputation that its Australian allies cause to ingratiate themselves with the Western bloc. This strategy of economic pressure has already been applied with China against Korea, Singapore and other regional Asian powers and has been quite successful. It is clear that the fact that China controls a third of all Australian exports gives a huge bargaining weight to the People’s Republic of China.
The “South China Morning Post” media conducted an interesting investigation that revealed that Chinese students, tourists and residents in Australia are responsible for almost 70% of luxury retail sales in Sydney and Melbourne. In addition, in the last 9 years, Chinese investments in Australia have multiplied by a factor of 32. The setback of this process would undoubtedly be an economic catastrophe for Australia on the day that China decides to put an ultimatum to the Australian government’s conduct to Washington. At the moment, Australia remains politically and militarily loyal to US contractors, however, it is very likely that in the next decades (or even years) we will see a gradual change of the Australian government towards a slightly more romantic relationship or permissive with the Chinese government.
Now China-Australia relations are in a decisive phase for both countries, since the Australian government must decide the most optimal way to balance their interests between the economic security of the Chinese and the military security of the Americans. It will be very difficult for the island to keep both international powers happy without their own interests being too damaged.
Economic relations are very important, for Australia: today China is by far the largest trading partner; 1 out of every 20 inhabitants in the southern country belongs to the Chinese community and both its universities and beaches are packed with students and tourists from the Asian giant. Thanks in part to all this, Australians have been experiencing a crisis for almost 30 years.
However, these growing ties clash with Washington’s interests, and in 2017 the Australian government decided once and for all to take sides. Since then a whole diplomatic storm has broken out and the Prime Minister of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull has not cut himself in blaming the Chinese intelligence services for wanting to corrupt Australian politics and society. Now the Australians shall decide between the economic prosperity and security offered by their Chinese allies, or continuing enjoying the military and geopolitical support from their American allies.
Image Credit: John Minchillo/AP