World Geostrategic Insights interview with Fatima Roumate on the use of artificial intelligence in the Ukrainian conflict.
Fatima Roumate Ph.D. is a Full Professor of International Law at the Faculty of Law, Economic and Social Sciences Agdal, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco. Founding President of the International Institute of Scientific Research, Marrakech since 2010. She is a Member of the Ad Hoc Expert Group for the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence UNESCO, Morocco, and of the Information Ethics Working Group IFAP, UNESCO since 2020.
Q1 – The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has shown how new technologies can play a significant role in modern warfare. Although Ukraine’s conventional military force is not as strong as Russia’s, the Ukrainians are using advanced technologies to their advantage, and their ability to process information at a faster rate than the Russians is having a great impact. Satellites, drones, artificial intelligence, and computer capabilities have been central to the war since the early days of the Russian invasion. The United States and other Western allies are using artificial intelligence and machine learning tools to analyze large amounts of data, generate useful battlefield information, and learn about Russian tactics and strategies to help the Ukrainian military and strengthen Ukraine’s push against Russia. What is your opinion on the use of artificial intelligence in the Ukrainian conflict?
A1 – Both sides are using AI in the conflict in Ukraine at three different levels: military combat with new weapons based on AI technology, cybersecurity, and psychological warfare.
Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAW) present several challenges and threats, which we need to explore thoroughly in light of the use of AI in military attacks. Particularly given the race for these advanced weaponry. Statista predicts that by 2025, government investment in military AI will amount to more than $16 billion worldwide. The future of humanity will be decided by non-state actors when they own the LAWs.
Russia spent more than $65.9 billion on its military spending in 2021, while Ukraine’s military spending was estimated at $5.94 billion in 2021. In the same context, Russia ranks third in the top ten countries investing in lethal autonomous weapons, preceded by China and the United States. For example, between 2017 and 2021 the projected spending on Russian drones is $3.9 billion, China spent $4.5 billion, and the United States spent $17.5 billion.
LAWs have been exploited in Ukraine, including highly developed weapons-based artificial intelligence systems and the Turkish-made TB2 drone used by Ukraine. This brings us to the ongoing discussion at the United Nations about whether LAW should be classified as banned weapons and how to convince all member states to face this new global security threat. Given the cutting-edge technologies used by the military, the war in Ukraine is forcing international society to rethink international law, which is largely traditional. The only way to save humanity from the dangers posed by LAWS is an international convention outlawing them.
Another side of the war with new actors, big media and big technology, is psychological warfare based on the malicious use of AI, such as fake news, fake faces and other technologies including facial recognition. This is a different strategy to combat and influence the enemy’s actions, however, in this case, psychological warfare against Russia has had little effect on Russian tactics.
AI is a new “weapon” that states and other international entities use in psychological warfare to alter military operations in their favor. The malicious use of AI not only increases current threats but also generates new ones. For example, since 2016, spear phishing attacks have increased significantly in several nations, including the United States, France, Canada, and Italy.
Fake news, fake speech, deep rumors, fake faces and other malicious uses of AI have been devised since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. In systems that combine data from satellite images, facial recognition cameras, and cell phone location information, among other things, AI can provide a detailed picture of individuals’ movements and predict future movements and location. It could thus easily be used before or during military warfare to achieve its objectives. The dissemination of fake videos or images, etc., can be considered as a kind of psychological warfare tool. The malicious use of AI, such as fake faces, images and videos, is a new kind of power that combines the influence of images and social media to increase hatred against certain countries.
The influence of these powerful tools is not limited to the user’s emotions, but could influence decision-making in the event of war or conflict. The malicious use of AI can affect many areas such as defense and cybersecurity.
Cybersecurity is another facet of AI-based warfare in Ukraine. According to Cybersecurity Venture, global cybercrime costs will grow by 15 percent per year over the next five years, reaching $10.5 trillion per year by 2025. This could also be explained by the impact of the cyber war in Ukraine. The implications of this cyber war between Russia and Ukraine extend to other European countries. Before the war, Ukraine created a network composed of governments and companies, which is part of its national cybersecurity and is used during the war to deal with cyber attacks.
In this cyber war, Ukraine is supported by western countries and Russia is supported by hackers groups from other countries such as the Brazilian group supportive of Russia who attacked Ukrainian universities.
Q2 – What is the situation in Russia’s AI development? Is there a major gap with AI from the West? Is AI in Russia also suffering from Western sanctions?
A2 – According to the Boston Consulting Group, worldwide spending on military robotics (narrowly defined as only unmanned vehicles) is expected to more than double again to $16.5 billion by the year 2025.
Russia is the leader in the lethal AWS race looking to remove humans from the decision-making loop partially or fully autonomous by 2030. Under Russian programs for the « Creation of Prospective Military Robotics through 2025 » and « Concept for Deployment of Robotic Systems for Military Use until 2030 ». In the industrial field, the International Federation of Robots presented 2020 a new world report under the title « Record 2.7 Million Robots Work in Factories Around the Globe – #WorldRo » and it expects average growth of 12% per year from 2020 to 2022.
Global sales value for service robots reaches US$12,9bn. China remains the strongest market for industrial robots reaching about 783,000 units- plus 21% in 2019. Japan ranks second with about 355,000 units – plus 12 %. The USA reached a new operational stock record of about 293.200 units – up 7%. Europe reached an operational stock of 580,000 units in 2019 – plus 7% according to the International Federation Robot. Russia is the top sanctioned country according to Castellum.AI, several countries announced sanctions on technologies against Russia such as Canada, Japan, the EU, the UK, the USA, and Switzerland in February 2022.
Q3 – In 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all of humanity, adding that control of artificial intelligence will be critical to global power. In recent years, Russia has invested heavily in the development of artificial intelligence. Moreover, since Putin praised the development of robotic combat systems in the new 2020 State Armaments Program, the Russian Defense Ministry has focused heavily on AI. But the discourse on AI went silent after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Apart from the widespread usage of UAVs for reconnaissance and target acquisition and the use of a remotely controlled robot for demining, there is no clear evidence of the significant use of Russian AI in the conflict. Why?
A3 – The true issue, in my opinion, is the censorship of Russian media as well as the lack of information on the part of the opposing side as to when and how Russia is exploiting AI in this war. I suppose that Russia is well-prepared for all possible forms of conflict, and we can all see how it is addressing the financial effects of economic sanctions. In the same way, it is well prepared for military operations, psychological warfare, and cyberwar.
Although it has a tactic, some offensive cyberattacks fail. Russia made use of deadly drones that combine a high-tech, low-cost system like facial recognition and computer vision. This indicates that it is distinct from other drones. A brand-new AI-based weapon employed against Ukraine is called “killing drones.”
Q4 – Can Ukraine be considered a case study in understanding how these new technologies operate in conventional land warfare?
A4 – The use of AI in Ukraine is a new « Westphalian system » which means a new definition of peace and security after this World War III considering all countries who contributed directly or indirectly to this war and its consequences on the nation’s game and the challenges but also on the future of international relations in this new world order characterized by new faces of war, new weapons and the new balance of power which swings between geostrategic interests and those linked to the global governance of AI and the race to technological sovereignty. The power is now hard, soft, and smart. All these types were used in the Ukraine war. Smart power is evaluated considering three fields related to AI; science and technology, economy, and military.
Q5 – In more general terms, who is winning the digital war in the Ukraine conflict?
A5 – In place of Palestine, Yemen and other warring nations, Ukraine is waging war in cyberspace, but is still losing the military confrontation. Voters in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson were between 87% and 99% in favor of joining Russia. Ukraine is the primary loser here.
Digital warfare is also affecting many European countries, especially in light of the “European Spring” and a massive “revolt” of Europeans against economic sanctions that are shaping the political regimes of some countries such as the UK or Germany. Personally, I think the EU will not survive, given the consequences of all the changes, starting with Brexit, then COVIDE-19 and now the war in Ukraine, the outcome of which could be the “end of the European Union.” European countries must rethink this organization or create a new one.
The digital war in Ukraine, especially government-led propaganda, has largely influenced European public opinion. Therefore, this has not influenced Russian military operations, nor Russian public opinion, which has been largely supportive of the war and the Russian president. This begs the question of whether Western countries fall into Thucydides’ trap based on several criteria, particularly public opinion support for the President, which is very important in ensuring the success of any war.
Sixty-two nations were compared in Tortoise Media’s Global AI Index, which looked at investment, innovation and implementation. Ukraine does not appear in this ranking, while Russia occupies the 32nd position. Ukraine is supported by several Western nations that are at the top of this list, such as the U.S. 1 and the U.K. 3, as well as other European countries with the involvement of all the big U.S. technologies, including the Starlink Internet network. I think the Western nations have underestimated the power of Russia.
In conclusion, the war in Ukraine has a price, and we will all have to pay it. I mean by all of us, all countries, and all actors including individuals. Western countries should create opportunities for negotiation and try to find a solution for peace in Europe, which is impossible without Russia.
Fatima Roumate – President of IIRS, International Institute for Scientific Research, member of the UNESCO Ad Hoc Expert Group on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and Full Professor of International Law at Mohammed V Agdal University in Rabat, Morocco. She received the Award titled “Iconic Leaders Creating a Better World for All” at the Women Economic Forum 2017. She is a member of several scientific board committees of indexed journals and she published several books and indexed articles in Arabic, French, and English. She is the editor of the book Artificial Intelligence and Digital Diplomacy.
Image Credit: Jason Beaubien/NPR