By Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig
President Trump’s latest approach to global strategy, which seeks to strengthen ties with Russia as a counterbalance to China, has sparked significant debate, prompting concerns over its viability and consequences for U.S. interests and the broader geopolitics.
In recent days, President Trump and his administration have unveiled a revised geopolitical strategy, suggesting a departure from traditional European alliances while fostering a closer relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. This renewed focus on strengthening ties with Russia seemingly comes at the expense of Ukraine, indicating a marked deviation from the U.S. long-established commitments to European security.
For decades, American foreign policy has been anchored in a strategy of dual containment – holding both Russia and China in check to maintain global dominance. This approach, shaped during the Cold War and solidified in the post-Soviet era, has defined the U.S.’ geopolitical stance for generations.
However, with Donald Trump’s return to power, a significant shift appears imminent. The focus is expected to pivot toward countering China as the primary geopolitical rival, while attempting to ease tensions with Russia. This recalibration reflects a belief that Washington must dismantle the growing Sino-Russian partnership, which, if left unchecked, could pose the most formidable threat to US global hegemony.
The rationale behind this policy shift is rooted in cold strategic calculus. While Russia remains a geopolitical competitor, its ambitions are largely regional – centered on exerting influence over Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and parts of the Middle East.
In contrast, China’s aspirations are global. Its economic might has eclipsed the U.S. in several domains, making it the world’s largest trading nation. Additionally, Beijing’s rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, semiconductor technology, and quantum computing signal a clear challenge to U.S. technological supremacy.
China’s military modernization efforts, particularly its growing naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, further complicate Washington’s strategic position. The modernization of the People’s Liberation Army, coupled with China’s assertive posture in the South China Sea, directly undermines U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
Over and above that, China’s global outreach through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has entrenched its influence across Africa, Latin America, and Europe, challenging Western economic and diplomatic dominance.
In this shifting geopolitical landscape, Pakistan emerges as a crucial player with growing strategic importance. Historically aligned with both China and the U.S. at different points, Pakistan now finds itself at the center of evolving global power dynamics. Its strategic location, bordering China, India, Iran, and Afghanistan, makes it a pivotal player in both regional security and global energy routes.
Pakistan’s deepening economic and military ties with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an essential component of the Belt and Road Initiative, elevate its significance in Beijing’s strategic calculus. For Washington, engaging with Pakistan offers a potential avenue to balance China’s growing influence in South Asia.
Complicating this dynamic is the expansion of BRICS into BRICS+, which has added new members and expanded its geopolitical influence. The inclusion of emerging economies from Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East reflects a broader ambition to create a multipolar world order that can challenge Western-dominated institutions.
Both China and Russia are driving forces within BRICS+, using the platform to extend their economic and diplomatic reach. Pakistan’s potential alignment with BRICS+ or closer ties with its member states could further shift the regional balance, making its diplomatic positioning even more consequential for U.S. interests.
Given this landscape, Trump’s foreign policy team views Russia not as a principal adversary but as a potential wedge to isolate China. The logic is clear: by alleviating tensions with Moscow through diplomatic and economic incentives, Washington could discourage deeper Sino-Russian coordination.
A weakened partnership between Beijing and Moscow would hinder China’s ability to leverage Russia’s vast natural resources, military technology, and diplomatic alliances in any potential confrontation with the United States.
Here, Pakistan’s role becomes even more critical – its relationships with both China and Russia could influence the degree of cooperation or competition within this strategic triangle. If the U.S. can offer Pakistan meaningful economic and diplomatic incentives, it could potentially sway Islamabad toward a more balanced stance, limiting the potential impact of BRICS+ on U.S. global strategy.
While this strategy appears pragmatic, it is not without its risks. Moscow remains a volatile player on the international stage, as evidenced by its aggression in Ukraine and interference in Western political systems. A thaw in relations with Russia could be perceived by U.S. allies particularly in Europe as a betrayal of long-standing commitments to NATO and democratic values.
What’s more, shifting U.S. focus might strain relations with India, a key strategic partner in counterbalancing China’s influence in Asia. At the same time, granting Moscow diplomatic or economic concessions could embolden the Kremlin’s regional ambitions. On the top of that, underestimating the growing influence of BRICS+ could allow the bloc to reshape global financial and diplomatic institutions in ways that diminish U.S. influence.
However, the potential rewards of this pivot cannot be ignored. By loosening Russia’s ties with China and engaging more proactively with Pakistan, the U.S. could effectively weaken a powerful geopolitical axis that threatens to upend the current global order.
If successful, this strategy would allow Washington to concentrate its diplomatic, military, and economic resources on curbing China’s rising influence, while simultaneously fostering regional stability in South Asia through balanced engagement with Pakistan. It would also help mitigate the rising influence of BRICS+, preventing the bloc from consolidating an alternative power center capable of undermining US-led global institutions.
This recalibration reflects a broader recognition that the most significant challenge to U.S. global dominance comes not from a revanchist Russia but from an ascendant China. China’s ability to shape global markets, invest in cutting-edge technologies, and project military power makes it a far more complex and enduring threat than Russia.
Ignoring this reality would be a strategic miscalculation of historic proportions. Pakistan’s role in this evolving equation adds another layer of complexity and opportunity, as its geopolitical positioning and diplomatic influence could serve as a counterbalance within this shifting framework. Besides, understanding and countering the growing cohesion of BRICS+ will be essential for maintaining the current global balance of power.
Trump’s potential foreign policy axis represents a gamble – one that could either fracture the growing Sino-Russian partnership or backfire by emboldening Moscow and complicating relations with key regional players like India.
The success of this strategy hinges on nuanced diplomacy and a clear-eyed understanding of global power dynamics, particularly the centricity of Pakistan’s role in geopolitics and the expanding influence of BRICS+.
If executed with precision, it could redefine the balance of power for decades to come. If mishandled, it risks alienating key allies and igniting new geopolitical flashpoints. In an era defined by shifting alliances and emerging superpowers, the United States faces a crucial test of geopolitical foresight.
Author: Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig – President of Strategic Science Advisory Council (SSAC) – Pakistan. He is an independent observer of global dynamics, with a deep interest in the intricate working of techno-geopolitics, exploring how science & technology, international relations, foreign policy and strategic alliances shape the emerging world order.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).