By Anton Evstratov
Iran, due the lack of resources to maintain the extremely strict quarantine regime, in force in recent weeks, has begun to partially weaken it. Employees of enterprises, at “low risk” from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, will resume work.
This was stated by President of the Islamic Republic Hassan Rouhani. At first, the quarantine regime was weakened in provincial plants and factories, meanwhil, from April 18, some restrictions were lifted in the Iranian capital Tehran.
Obviously, for the heavily affected and suffering from the economic impact of the pandemic, at risk of not surviving, this is a necessary measure, as the economy of the Islamic Republic was already weakened by the powerful sanctions pressure from the United States and its partners, and by the falling oil prices.
The speaker of the Iranian government, Ali Raibi, said that if the quarantine measures, that had been in place, should continue, 4 million of people could lost their jobs, first of all the workers of enterprises of the private sector. The measures announced by the Iranian Cabinet, to provide material support to citizens, are very expensive, and they can hardly last longer.
The civil servants, according to Hassan Rouhani, should work outside the office – in remote mode. However, the distance learning, in a significant number of Iranian schools, universities and vocational schools was not implemented, due to technical features. So the Ministry of Education decided to cancel exams in the upcoming summer session for Iranian students.
At the same time, it remains the risk of a further spread of coronavirus. In Iran there is now a negative trend of the infection, with the number of infected people decreasing day by day. But this was achieved precisely due to strict quarantine regime. With the softening of this regime, the situation may well get out of control again. At the moment, about 4.5 thousand deaths from COVID-19 are registered in the country, with more than 70 thousand infected. Many experts are already warning about the dangers of a second and possibly more destructive outbreak. It should be noted the consequences of violations of the quarantine conditions, that the Iranians made on the holidays after Novruz, celebrated on March 20.
The complexity of the situation also lies in the fact that the criteria for determining enterprises with high and low risk are not yet fully understood. Rouhani listed some institutions that fall under the first definition – schools, universities, social, cultural, religious and sports institutions, as well as public events in these areas. Thus, cinemas, stadiums, shopping malls and markets will be closed for a long time.
In the pandemic, Iran is fighting for funding and to lift US-imposed international banking restrictions. For example, the head of the Iranian central bank, Abdolasser Hemmati, said that $ 1.6 billion, frozen by a Luxembourg bank under US pressure, returned home. Luxembourg officials, however, explained that the final decision was made by the country’s highest court, and the funds had not yet been sent. Hemmati later told Iranian state television that the withholding of that amount “would not be the end of the world” for Iran, as it was working to unfreeze “much more such funds stored abroad.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif, in turn, complained on Twitter about “intimidation of the US regime,” which “kills people” during the coronavirus pandemic and dishonors the American among Iranians. By the way, his American counterpart Mike Pompeo said that Washington is ready for “real humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people.” But, according to Pompeo, cash aid will not fall into the right hands in Iran and will be used by the state “for corruption”. Therefore, only medicines and other humanitarian goods are exempted from US sanctions, but not the money flowing into Iran.
It is worth noting that the American administration is not currently going to reduce the level of sanction pressure on the Islamic Republic. Moreover, the State Department published a report which noted that Tehran “potentially” could violate the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in connection with the collapse of the “nuclear deal”. As a basis for such a conclusion it is stated the Iranian reluctance to grant access to the IAEA inspectors to its two nuclear facilities.
This report does not change the general context of US-Iranian relations and the attitude to Iran by other states of the world , and the world community as a whole. However, it is obvious that there is no need to talk about any warming and easing of sanctions against Tehran. Iran in this regard “accepts the rules of the game.” Thus, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps announced that his scientists had created a device for the instant diagnosis of coronavirus which, however, “will not be transmitted to the Americans until all sanctions have been lifted”.
The invented device, according to Iranian information, uses a magnetic field and is reported to have an infection detection accuracy of 80%. This invention causes a lot of controversy regarding its availability and the reliability of the relevant news reports.
Thus, it is obvious that Tehran will and will continue to gradually remove the quarantine restrictions introduced in order to keep its economy afloat and to ensure at least the minimum acceptable standard of living of the population. This can lead to a second outbreak of the disease, which, in turn, will lead to tens of thousands of new deaths and hundreds of thousands of infections. But, at the same time, the Islamic Republic, its leadership, doctors and law enforcement agencies have already accumulated considerable experience in conducting sanitary-medical measures, which is already being used. This may reduce the risk of outbreaks and may increase the chances of successful treatment of infected citizens.
The Iranian government will closely monitor the resume of work of people and, given the danger, it will immediately respond to any negative consequences. Obviously, the quitting of quarantine will entail the invention of new social and technical models for diagnosing, isolating, treating, and ensuring the labor activity of the population. Therefore, the experience of Iran, from the first stage of the spread of coronavirus, may to be useful to other countries facing a pandemic.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image credit: AP