The expected military campaign of Turkey and Qatar in Yemen

By Denis Korkodinov

According to a number of sources, tribal unions loyal to the “government in exile” are currently concentrating significant forces in the Yemeni provinces of Shabwa and Marib. The main objective of this is to organize an attack on the positions of the Southern Transitional Council in Aden and Abyan as part of the “New Dawn” military operation.

At the same time, experts close to the circle of Aidarous al-Zubaidi note that armed groups in southern Yemen fear that the Islam movement (the Muslim Brotherhood structure) will be able to break through the front line in the Shakra region and strengthen their positions in the vicinity of Zanzibar cities and Jaar in the province of Abyan.

Meanwhile, the Southern Transitional Council expects to organize a negotiation process with the leaders of the international Arab coalition and, above all, with the Saudi Army in order to split the ranks of the opposition and prevent the capture of Aden. Among other things, Southerners urge the “government in exile” to strictly adhere to the provisions of the Riyadh Agreement regarding the security of the second capital of Yemen and the prevention of any military provocations against the forces of the South.

It is worth noting that the efforts of the government of Idarus al-Zubaidi are still unclaimed, given the fact that Qatar and Turkey have a great influence on the Muslim Brotherhood group, which is the main driving force of the announced offensive. In a pandemic, these countries seek to find additional sources of resources in countries torn by military conflicts.

Since the successes of Turkish and Qatari politics in Syria and Libya were called into question, Yemen turned out to be easier prey for Ankara and Doha due to the fact that Russian troops are not yet represented there. In addition, the international community has been trying for a long time not to notice the problem of Yemen, which greatly contributes to the intervention of Turkey and Qatar in this country.

From the point of view of representatives of the Southern Transitional Council, in the event of the capture of Aden by the supporters of Mansour Hadi and the Muslim Brotherhood, the Riyadh Agreement will completely lose its significance, which may serve as the basis for a new escalation of the conflict in Yemen. In turn, the southerners brought their armed units on high alert in the provinces of Aden, Lahj and Abyan. In addition, they organized daily patrols on the streets of cities in order to stop any attempts by the local population to organize resistance and join the opposition.

The head of the Southern Transitional Council, Aidarus al-Zubaidi, sent an official appeal to the ambassadors of five states, including Russia, as well as the UN special envoy for Yemen and the UN Security Council, demanding to exert pressure on the “government in exile” and qualify the attack on Aden as an act of terrorism. In his address, the leader of the southerners emphasized that the military situation in Yemen could become absolutely uncontrolled if the operation “New Dawn” will be implemented in the near future.

It is worth noting that, simultaneously with the process of redeploying troops to the eastern part of Aden, the Muslim Brotherhood movement, together with the army units of the Arab coalition, attempted to occupy the settlements of Al-Alam and Balhaf in order to seize food supplies intended for the armed forces of the Southern Transitional Council. These events provoked a series of attacks from the southerners, who were thus forced to weaken their defenses in the east of the capital.

Turkey’s interest in Yemen is caused by the need for oil and natural gas. It is no coincidence that Turkish intelligence officers, under the guise of representatives of humanitarian organizations, are trying to strengthen control over the Shabwah province in order to thereby be able to freely carry out military training activities for Muslim Brotherhood fighters and collect information about the moods of local tribal unions.

Thus, direct Turkish military participation in Yemen may remain a matter of time. This, in particular, was stated in his article “Yemen is waiting for us” for the Turkish newspaper “Derlich Postasi”, writer Ismail Yasha. According to him, Ankara expects in the near future to launch a military campaign in Yemen on the side of the “government in exile” by analogy with what it is currently undertaking in Syria and Libya.

For these purposes, Turkey plans to deploy at least 500 fighters of the Syrian National Army from the northwestern part of Syria and at least 3 warships currently based off the coast of Libya in the vicinity of the provinces of Shabwa, Taiz and Socotra. In addition, Ankara is ready to organize a naval blockade of Aden in case Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi appeals to Recep Erdogan with a corresponding request.

Qatar should provide financial support for the Turkish campaign in Yemen. Sources note that Doha agents are currently in active negotiations with the head of the Muslim Brotherhood of Yemen, Hammoud Saeed al-Mihlafi, and the leader of the National Resistance Forces armed group, Tarik Saleh, in the hope that they will take part in the Turkish offensive Aden and Abyan.

Image credit: Najeeb Almahboobi/EPA EFE

Read in Russian: Ожидаемая военная кампания Турции и Катара в Йемене

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