ISIL and their wave of violence have swept brutally through northern Iraq and across Syria. Many of those who took part in the offensive were foreign fighters.
With the fall of the Islamic State in Irag and Syria, many of these militants were able to return to their home countries. These returning jihadist remnants represent a potential security challenge for many countries. The Central Asian governments are also bracing for the return of the experienced terrorists. Brainwashed with a jihadist ideology and significant combat skills, these fighters are seeking new safe heavens for their survival and spread of their radical ideology.
Central Asia – A Recruiting Heaven
The early reports from 2014 (when ISIL was in its peak) were showing that the radical group has more than 25 000 foreign fighters. According to CIA estimates, ISIL was able to attract many foreign fighters from the Caucasus and Central Asia too. In the same time, this region receives little attention in the Western media and many are not able to see the connection between ISIS. However, these Turkic nations of the former Soviet Union had their fair share of so-called caliphate fighters and jihadist ideologies. One notable group that rose to prominence in the last decade was Hizb ut-Tahrir in Kyrgyzstan.
This Islamic group had the ultimate goal for a creation of a caliphate in Central Asia. However, unlike ISIL this group was aiming to achieve this goal in a peaceful way. Yet, this Islamic group was able to attract many Islamic radicals that were underground to join this group with the goal of creating a caliphate. These joint forces were able to implicate significant security challenges as the Kyrgyzstan government had to react by banning Islamic groups such as the Hizb ut-Tahrir.
The second notable problem that has to lead to the rise of these Islamic movements was the economic situation in the central Asian region. For many recruits, Islam was not the main goal as many of them were in despair and angered by the dictatorial rule and the high level of corruption and poverty. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian governments had a prolonged transition period and were unable to make certain political and economic reforms. Moreover, the poverty levels are on a constant rise and that has led many people to turn to the religion as a mean for survival.
In the same time, many local jihadists were motivated to travel to Iraq and Syria with the promise of a rich life in the so-called Islamic State.
Combined with all these elements was the prospect of the returning jihadists in the Central Asian countries. The ideology of ISIL is still present and many of these former militants will aim to take advantage of the political and economic situation in the central Asian countries. The poverty, the corruption and the weak educational system combined with the religious ideology can have a galvanizing effect on the prospect of finding safe heavens for ISIL in this region. Many young and poorly educated Central Asians are influenced by extremist rhetoric and the prospect of finding meaning and sustenance through ISIS.
Moreover, the oppressive and totalitarian rule of the central Asian governments can make countries such as Kyrgyzstan to be a fertile ground for ISIL.
With the defeat of ISIL in Syria and Iraq, the central Asian countries can be the new possible battlefield for new armed conflicts.
The potential for violence should not be underestimated as the region is still deeply divided and the Russian influence is still present. These unstable societies have the potential for the creation of bloody civil conflicts like the one in Syria.
Tackling the Jihadist Ideology
And while the logical solution to this problem is to arrest the returning jihadist combined with an increased security, the issue is more complex than that. Action like this will still be effective but it will only serve to solve the problem in the short term. To be more specific, the ideology will still survive in the hearts and minds of many. That is why the Central Asian governments need to quickly react and improve the current situation. The first notable step should be closely related to diverting some of the natural resource sales income to reform the educational system. Combined with that, the state salaries and the overall economic improvement can galvanize the prospect of easing off the tensions in the society. These economic reforms can also minimize the level of corruption and bribe.
The second element of this strategy is closely related with the much needed political reforms. By improving the democratic climate in the region and the cooperation between the political players, countries like Kyrgyzstan can optimize the overall freedom in the society. Moreover, this can have a galvanizing effect on the process of improving the human rights and freedoms.
Combined with the improvement of the infrastructure and modernization, the influence of the radical ideologies and groups can be significantly decreased.
In the same time, these governments should embrace a closer cooperation for dealing with these challenges and issues that have the potential to impact the regional security. Moreover, cooperation with the regional players such as Turkey, Iran and Russia can be a valuable asset in preventing the spread of these radical groups and individuals.
All in all, the process of dealing with the extremist ideology can be a complicated and challenging process. With the increased number of returning jihadists and the established radical movements, the potential for new armed conflicts is real and more present than ever. Combined with the complex political and economic situation, countries such as Kyrgyzstan can face many security and geopolitical challenges.
Image Credit: NATO Review